White smoke and shadows of the Vatican: who will lead over a billion Catholics in a time of anxiety and hope

What journalists call the most mysterious election in the world – the conclave – began in Rome. After the death of Pope Francis last month, the Catholic Church faced one of the most responsible moments of its existence – the election of a new spiritual leader for more than a billion believers around the world. This vote is unlike any other: it is shrouded in ritual, silence, prayer and strict confidentiality protocols. The focus is on 133 cardinals who have to decide what course the Church will take in the 21st century: whether the spirit of Pope Francis’ reforms will be preserved, or whether another, more traditional stage will begin. In the Sistine Chapel, behind closed doors, where even communication is silenced by special equipment, the future of Catholicism is decided.

Under the “electronic lock”: how the conclave works

It all started today with a special Mass Pro Eligendo Romano Pontifice – for the election of the new Roman Pontiff. After the service – silence, prayer and the transition to the main scene of the action: the Sistine Chapel, which is literally under an “electronic castle”. Even mobile communications in the area of ​​the chapel are jammed so that no outside force can influence the secret ballot.

133 cardinals from 71 countries is, without exaggeration, one of the most diverse conclaves in history. Representatives of fifteen countries are voting for the first time, including the Central African Republic, Haiti, Malaysia, Myanmar, Paraguay, and Singapore. Such a wide geography is the result of the policy of Francis, who sought to bring those regions that previously remained on the periphery closer to the center of the Church.

The first ballots will be cast today. If no candidate receives two-thirds of the vote, voting will continue tomorrow. Up to four rounds per day can occur.

There is a lot of hope among believers and pilgrims in the Vatican. Someone dreams of the first Pope from America. As CNN reports, Anna Barrett Doyle, an activist for child protection and reform in the Church, urges choose an American – not for political reasons, but because of the experience of a tough fight against sexual crimes by priests in the USA. She believes that only American bishops have really implemented zero tolerance for abusers and openly publish their names.

Meanwhile, the cardinals, who have already turned in their phones and left the information space, are having lunch, discussing the candidates and preparing for the first vote. Inside are not only prayers, but also politics. They distribute files, convince, promote their own – but those who gathered in the Sistine Chapel understand: the whole Catholic world is watching them.

Today in the afternoon – the first vote. And perhaps white smoke will rise over the Vatican very soon.

Prayers, strategies, politics: how voting works

The vote comes amid deep divisions among cardinals over Francis’ legacy and the future direction of the Catholic Church.

Francis’ papacy has been marked by a commitment to inclusiveness, decentralization of governance and openness to contemporary challenges such as climate change and migration. However, these reforms caused tension between progressive and conservative factions in the Church. Some cardinals want a continuation of Francis’ course, while others want a return to more traditional approaches.

The main contenders for the pontificate

Pietro Parolin (Italy)
Vatican Secretary of State, is considered a moderate candidate who can ensure the stability and continuation of the diplomatic course of Francis. However, his involvement in controversial financial deals, particularly with China, is causing concern among some cardinals.

Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines)
Known as the “Francis of Asia”, he supports social justice and inclusiveness, particularly towards the LGBTQ+ community and divorced believers. His election could become a symbol of the global character of the Church.

Fridolin Ambongo Besungu (DR Congo)
The president of the episcopal conferences of Africa and Madagascar, represents the conservative wing of the Church. Performs against the blessing of same-sex couples and supports traditional values

Peter Erdo (Hungary)
Archbishop of Budapest, known his conservative views, in particular regarding migration and traditional liturgy. Has support among Cardinals who seek a return to a more traditional course.

Matteo Zuppi (Italy)
President of the Italian Episcopal Conference, known as a consensus builder and supporter of dialogue. His election could promote unity in the Church.

Key challenges for the new Pope

Experty consider, that the new Pope must be a leader capable of uniting the various factions in the Church and effectively addressing internal and external challenges. Among the main tasks are the fight against sexual abuse, financial transparency and strengthening the role of the Church in the world. Electing a pope from Africa or Asia could reflect the growing role of those regions in the Catholic Church, where the number of believers has grown the most. However, some cardinals may prefer a candidate from Europe who has a deep understanding of the internal processes in the Vatican.  So the 2025 conclave is a defining moment for the Catholic Church. The choice of a new Pope will show whether the Church will continue on Francis’ reform course or return to a more traditional path. In any case, the world is waiting for a leader who can unite believers and respond to modern challenges.

The College of Cardinals who will elect the next Pope is as diverse as ever. Thanks to Francis, who sought to make the Catholic Church more global, among the voters there are now significantly more representatives from the Global South – the countries of Latin America, Asia, Africa. This changed the geography and internal dynamics of the future conclave.

Many of the cardinals appointed by Francis share his vision of a Church open to dialogue, focused on helping the disadvantaged, focused on social justice, environmentalism and peacemaking missions. However, this “reformist” group is far from homogeneous. Its representatives often have very different cultural and theological experiences, as well as different attitudes to difficult topics such as LGBT, the role of women, or church discipline. It is this, as the Vaticanist Malloni notes, that makes the future vote extremely unpredictable: it is not a confrontation between clearly defined camps, not a struggle of “liberals” against “conservatives”, but a complex collage of micro-alliances that are formed around views, personal experience and church strategy.

On the other side is a group of doctrinal conservatives, particularly from Europe and North America. They are adamant in preserving traditional morality and church discipline, and oppose too rapid or radical liberalization. Although they are in the minority today, especially given the dominance of Franciscan appointees, it is these cardinals who have strong connections in the Roman Curia and in influential Vatican circles.

A separate role can be played by the so-called “pragmatic pastors” – archbishops of large metropolises such as Manila, Sao Paulo or Chicago. They are daily confronted with the life problems of the modern world and try to find flexible solutions without violating church doctrine. Their position is moderate, and it is this figure that can turn out to be a compromising figure around which the majority will rally.

The Italian Lobby: The Quiet Struggle for the Return of the Papacy

We should not forget about the Italian lobby. Although his influence has waned significantly under Francis’ pontificate, Italian cardinals still have deep roots in the Vatican administration and seek to return the papacy to Italy after three consecutive non-Italian pontiffs. Their actions mostly take place in private, during informal dinners and meetings at the guest house of St. Martha, where the cardinals stay.

After all, in each conclave there are those who are called “pope makers” – cardinals with authority, diplomatic skills and a wide network of trust. They rarely run for office themselves, but they know how to skillfully direct the choice of others. These include, say, Cardinal Matteo Zuppi (Italy), Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines) or Vatican Secretary of State Pietro Parolin.

So, the next conclave is not just the election of a new pontiff. This is a complex process of finding a balance between tradition and change, between the North and the South, between different ideas about the mission of the Church in the 21st century. The only thing that’s certain for now, as Maloney jokingly notes, is that the new Pope will be a man.

The new Pope and the old war: how the Vatican can influence the world’s voice on Ukraine

The impact of the results of the conclave on world politics, in particular on the course of the war in Ukraine, may be significant, although not necessarily immediate. Pope Francis, despite his global charisma and humanistic pathos, has repeatedly drawn sharp criticism for his position on the war in Ukraine – too cautious, ambiguous, sometimes painfully neutral. His constant calls for peace “at any price”, lack of a clear assessment of the aggressor and willingness to talk with Moscow were perceived by many as moral ambiguity.

The new Pope can either continue this diplomatic line or turn it towards a clearer moral condemnation of evil, which will be not only a spiritual gesture, but also an important signal to millions of Catholics, political leaders and the world’s media. Especially if the new pontiff comes from a region where the danger of authoritarianism and the trauma of colonial violence are better understood – Latin America, Africa, Eastern Europe.

A Pope who will clearly and publicly call Russia’s war against Ukraine criminal will be able to change the rhetoric of the Holy See’s diplomacy, influence the religious narrative in Europe, strengthen the moral position of the Western coalition, and even influence the attitude of part of the global South. Instead, a Pope who remains in the spirit of Francis’ careful balance is unlikely to change the perception of the Vatican as the moral arbiter of Europe’s biggest war since 1945. So the choice of the Pope is not only a church matter. It is also a message to the world about whether the Catholic Church is ready to speak in a clear and transparent language in the age of great evil.