Kyiv seeks to convene a new peace summit to achieve a fair peace settlement in Ukraine before the US elections in November, inviting Russia to the meeting. This is reported by the publication Bloomberg, citing his sources. Such an initiative is not something sensational in view of the results of the Bürgenstock summit. To maintain momentum, the organizers should announce the venue and date of the second summit as soon as possible. This would demonstrate the seriousness of the efforts to the entire world community, analysts of the US Institute of Peace wrote about this immediately after the meeting in Switzerland.
The only thing new in the initiative of Ukrainian diplomacy is that the date of the meeting is until November, that is, before the change of power in the USA, which, as it becomes increasingly likely, will pass to Trump.
The Trump factor
It significantly affects our country’s efforts to hold a new peace summit as soon as possible. This influence is based on several key aspects of Trump’s foreign policy stance and its potential impact on US-Ukrainian relations.
As you know, under the Trump administration, US foreign policy demonstrated an isolationist and unpredictable approach. Trump has often expressed skepticism about US involvement in foreign conflicts and questioned the value of alliances such as NATO. This has created uncertainty for Ukraine about the level of support it can expect from the US in the future.
If Trump wins the next presidential election, there are fears that his administration may reduce support for Ukraine. During his previous term, Trump took a more conciliatory stance toward Russia and even faced criticism for refusing military aid to Ukraine, instead trying to force it to conduct high-profile investigations of his political rivals. Ukraine, writes the publication The Week, fears that Trump’s return to the White House could lead to a significant reduction in military and financial aid from the United States.
Trump’s plan for Ukraine
Trump has a plan on the table to end the war. The Spanish publication writes about it THE COUNTRY.
Two advisers to the Republican candidate who worked on the document are Keith Kellogg and Fred Fleitz. In it, they wrote that Ukraine should be required to start a dialogue with Russia if it wants to continue receiving American weapons. At the same time, according to this document, Moscow will be asked to agree to negotiations with Kyiv. In case of disagreement, the White House will increase military support for Ukraine. This is the kind of double pressure that Trump sees as very promising.
Advisor to the President of Ukraine Mykhailo Podoliak said that the plan proposed by the team Trump, is “strange” because it implies the legitimization of a violation of international law. It also does not provide that Russia will pay compensation for the destruction caused.
The factor of middle countries (middle powers)
Diplomats will continue to work on structuring future negotiations, an effort that should take into account the diplomatic potential of “middle countries” such as Egypt, India or Saudi Arabia, and involve them in peace planning. According to the position of the US Institute of Peace, the presence of such countries at the summit held in Switzerland was a good first step, but their active participation in working groups or as diplomatic emissaries would be even better. These countries have the expertise and influence to help Ukraine end the war on its terms.
Although a road map for the peace process was one of the stated goals of the previous summit, it did not appear in the communiqué. The idea, according to the American Institute of Peace, is a good one and should not be dismissed. From the points of the peace formula of Ukraine, working groups could form a plan, looking for compromises or ideas that would be widely supported at the international level.
“Middle countries” have the ability to act as neutral mediators between large states. They can help create a negotiation platform where all parties to the conflict can express their positions and find compromise solutions. Medium-sized countries, having a significant number of votes in international organizations such as the UN, can influence the adoption of resolutions that support peace initiatives and sanctions against aggressors.
Moscow’s answer
Russia is not going to participate in the second peace summit regarding Ukraine, to which Kyiv is preparing to invite Moscow, the deputy head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation stated. Mykhailo Galuzin. He called the peace conference “a manifestation of fraud”. The Kremlin continues to insist on “conditions for the cessation of hostilities and the start of negotiations.” Among them is the demand to withdraw Ukrainian troops from the parts of the Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk regions not occupied by the Russian army and to refuse to join NATO. President Zelensky calls Putin’s demands an ultimatum.
Kuleba’s hopes
Kyiv does not aspire to direct contacts with the Russian side, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine emphasized in his turn Dmytro Kuleba.
He stated that Russia’s participation in the second peace summit is possible by analogy with the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Kuleba explained that Ukraine, Turkey and the UN negotiated on one side, after which Turkey and the UN negotiated with Russia. The agreement was signed between Turkey, the UN and Ukraine and between Turkey, the UN and Russia, without direct contacts between Ukraine and Russia.
