After the war, 70% of Ukrainian refugees may return: Minister of National Unity Oleksiy Chernyshov
Recently, the Ukrainian government has been increasingly making alarming statements about the return of Ukrainian refugees after the end of the war. This topic is already coming to the fore, because for more than three years, millions of our citizens have been living abroad — building a new life, getting a job, and educating their children in European schools. And although most of them remain with Ukraine at heart, every month the process of integration into new societies only intensifies. The government understands very well that simply ending the war will not be enough for millions of people to immediately drop everything and return. Now it is not only about the right to return, but about the struggle for every citizen, because it is the human resource that will be the main driving force of the country’s recovery.
This was directly stated by the Minister of National Unity, Oleksiy Chernyshov interview BBC. According to him, there are currently about six million Ukrainians abroad. And the state must do everything possible to make returning home not only desirable, but also economically beneficial and promising for the Ukrainians themselves.
Chernyshov gave specific figures: according to the ministry’s estimates, about 30% of those currently abroad will seriously consider returning to Ukraine immediately after the end of the war — in the first six months after achieving security guarantees. Another 25-30% have already today made a different decision for themselves — to stay in the EU countries where they managed to integrate. These are people who have found a job, received an education or are teaching their children there and are not ready to turn their lives back.
However, there remains a third category – approximately 40% of Ukrainians, for whom, according to the minister, it is worth fighting. The economic future of Ukraine will depend on this group. According to Chernyshov, if these people feel that Ukraine is changing, that decent conditions for life, development and work are being created here, they will return.
“Our task is to make the country competitive. We will compete for our people with Europe and the world. It is the human resource that will be the decisive factor in the country’s recovery. We simply will not be able to double the GDP, lift the economy and start real reconstruction without the return of at least part of our six million citizens. – emphasized the minister.
He honestly admits that now the advantage is on the side of European countries. The labor markets there actively integrate Ukrainians, children get used to new educational standards, families receive support, which, unfortunately, is difficult to guarantee in Ukraine during the war. Many have already started to build a new life there. But, as Chernyshov emphasizes, the state must create such conditions so that people can see a future for themselves right here, in the Motherland.
The minister stated that the return of Ukrainians cannot be considered as an obligation or coercion. It should be a conscious choice of everyone. And this choice directly depends on what Ukraine will be like after victory — whether it will be able to offer people a decent alternative to life in Europe.
In general, according to the ministry’s optimistic forecast, after the end of the war and under the condition of carrying out deep reforms, up to 70% of Ukrainians currently abroad may return to Ukraine. But this process will be gradual and will require significant efforts of the state.
According to Eurostat, as of the end of January 2025, almost 4.29 million Ukrainian citizens were under temporary protection in EU countries alone. Another two million Ukrainians remain in other countries of the world — from the USA to Canada and Australia.
“Unfortunately, Ukraine got into a situation where it started losing Ukrainian citizens almost from the first year of its independence, from 1991. I would like to remind you that in 1991, the population of Ukraine was 52 million people.
For 10 years, until 2001, we lost approximately 4 million people. At that time, the birth rate was very positive and dynamic. There were no military threats. The motivation for changing the country of residence is exclusively socio-economic.
In 2013, there were 45 million of us. And so we reached the point that in 2021, Ukraine was a country with a population of 41 million people on the territory under control. By the end of 2024, no more than 32 million Ukrainians lived in Ukraine. A population change from 52 to 32 million is a catastrophic dynamic.
The further trend regarding the birth and death pyramid in Ukraine is negative. We have 150,000 new Ukrainians born every year. And 450 thousand, unfortunately, who die. Minus 300 thousand per year. This is the population of, you know, the regional center, to put it bluntly. Therefore, it is obvious that we have to intervene in the whole situation and change it.
According to the UN forecast, Ukraine will have a population of 15 million people by the end of this century. We are not satisfied with this scenario. Moreover, for us to think about doubling our GDP after the end of the war […] we need working hands. We need an additional 4.5 million people to work.” – emphasized the minister.
And right now, according to the minister, it is necessary not only to talk about plans, but also to start building conditions for these people to want to return. It is about security, the economy, the reform of the judicial system, the development of medicine, education and infrastructure. After all, Ukrainians who have lived abroad will no longer want to put up with corruption, injustice and the lack of basic conditions for a normal life.
Ahead of the country is a difficult struggle not only for territories, but also for the hearts and minds of its own citizens. And it will be an equally important part of the great post-war recovery. Ukraine must change so much that returning home is not a painful decision for millions of Ukrainians, but the only right choice.
