After a long period of ignoring Belarus, Washington is making an unexpected move, hoping to weaken the alliance between Moscow and Minsk through diplomacy and political maneuvering.
While the world is focused on the bloody wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, one of the most unexpected diplomatic visits of the summer of 2025 took place in Minsk. To the Belarusian capital arrived Keith Kellogg is Donald Trump’s special envoy for Russia and Ukraine. The former lieutenant general, who was given the authority to conduct delicate negotiations by the current US president, became the first high-ranking American official to meet with Alexander Lukashenko in more than five years.
The West, which previously bet on the isolation of the authoritarian regime in Belarus, unexpectedly took up a different game. And although Kellogg did not bring with him formal proposals on the cancellation of sanctions, the very fact of negotiations with the “last dictator of Europe” indicates a fundamental turn in Washington’s strategy. The impetus for this move was undoubtedly given by Donald Trump himself – not so much a politician as a pragmatist, for whom moral constraints give way to geopolitical expediency.
Minsk warming against the background of a geopolitical storm
The main result of the negotiations is release 14 political prisoners, including prominent dissident Serhiy Tykhanovsky, husband of opposition leader Svitlana Tykhanovsky. This step, despite its obvious humanitarian value, has a deeper meaning: it is a demonstration of Lukashenka’s readiness for at least limited concessions. While the Biden administration focused on economic pressure, Trump’s team tried good old diplomacy – “a tooth for a tooth”, or rather “a prisoner for a meeting”.
The initiative looks set to continue. As you know, in recent months, Belarus began to slowly and cautiously release individual prisoners, including US citizens. Kellogg’s visit is a signal that this process can be accelerated. But it also actualizes the main question: is Washington able to gain influence in the Kremlin through Minsk?
Signals — to all players
The atmosphere of the meeting was indicative. Lukashenko – in the usual role of the host on the marble throne – ironically thanked the guest: “You made a lot of noise with your arrival.” Kellogg jokingly compared the palace to Trump’s residence in Florida: “With all this gold here, it’s like Mar-a-Lago.” At the same time, behind this scene from the theater of political benevolence stood serious topics: American and European sanctions, Belarus’ participation in the war in Ukraine, regional security, in particular Minsk’s relations with Moscow and Beijing.
It is no accident that Lukashenko immediately demonstrated loyalty to Putin. On the eve of the American visit, he received the chairman of the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation, Oleksandr Bastrykin, a longtime ally of the Russian president. Lukashenka’s statement: “In this difficult time we are with you” sounded like a premature precautionary response to potential suspicions on the part of the Kremlin.
The return of “real politics”
According to Balash Jarabik, a former EU diplomat, today, for the first time in a long time, the USA began to consider Belarus not only as a problem country, but as a player country. “Belarus is no longer just a moral issue. It is a geopolitical challenge,” – emphasizes he.
This approach is entirely in the spirit of Trump, whose foreign policy style gravitates toward deals and “big deals” rather than long-term strategies. If Lukashenko helps withdraw at least a part of Moscow’s troops from Belarusian territory, or – what is even more ambitious – acts as a mediator in the negotiations regarding Ukraine, then the American administration will gain trump cards on the European field.
This is not the first attempt to “thaw” relations. In 2020, then Secretary of State Mike Pompeo already met with Lukashenka and even planned a gradual rapprochement. But then this initiative came to naught after brutal repression in August of the same year, when Lukashenko, declaring himself the winner of the election with a fantastic 87%, suppressed a wave of protests with rare brutality.
Between Putin and Trump
After Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Belarus became a de facto staging ground for the Russian army. But, despite pressure from the Kremlin, Lukashenko did not dare to send his own troops into Ukraine. This shows that even in the role of a vassal he tries to maintain at least microscopic autonomy. And now, in 2025, he can try to convert this semi-neutrality into profitable geopolitical capital. Kellogg, according to eyewitnesses, emphasized that the United States is “stronger than ever and can achieve results.” It looks like these results should break Washington’s impasse on the war in Ukraine.
Lukashenko as a peacemaker? A political hoax that does not stand up to criticism
So responded about the meeting of Kellogg and Lukashenka Volodymyr Ogryzko, diplomat, ex-minister of foreign affairs of Ukraine.
“If this is really part of a strategic plan – then, forgive me, this is not even a school level, but a kindergarten level. Count on the fact that Lukashenko can at least somehow influence Putin in the context of ending aggression – it means not understanding anything either about Russia or about its vertical of power.” – the diplomat commented on the situation.
Indeed, Lukashenko is not a subject capable of making foreign policy decisions. He is a hostage, subordinate, vassal. Belarus completely lost its independence in its international behavior even after 2020, and from 2022 it became a de facto satellite in the war against Ukraine.
“To think that Lukashenko can be some kind of “transmitter” of signals from Washington to the Kremlin, one must either have a very naive idea of geopolitics, or deliberately fool oneself. Well, why pick your ears, if you can just pick up the phone and tell Putin directly?”
Kellogg was obviously not acting on his own discretion – he was carrying out the tasks of a political group headed by Trump. But isn’t this group repeating a mistake that other American administrations have made? We remember talks about the fact that the USA will be able to “separate Russia from China”. They couldn’t. Now there is a new illusion: “to separate Lukashenka from Putin”. But even here the logic is cracking at the seams.
“This is the same fantasy, from the same drawer: “let’s work with dictators, maybe they will become our allies”. Well, this is absurd. Remember: Bastrykin was in Minsk a few days ago. And what? Lukashenko stood on his hind legs and swore his love for Russia. So who is he after that? A mediator? A negotiator?”, – comments Ogryzko indignantly on the situation.
Such a “strategy” only discredits the very idea of US foreign policy subjectivity in the region. And if it is really implemented, it will mean a new resounding defeat.
“This shows that there, in Washington, there are still people who do not understand Russia. They do not want to understand it. They will continue to play tricks with it. And you cannot win tricks with the Kremlin.”
American politicians should realize: Lukashenko is not a peacemaker. He is an accomplice in the crime. And any attempt to make him a “dialogue figure” is a moral and strategic disaster. It will not end the war. It will only prolong it and give the aggressor another pause for reinforcement.
Who was released and under what conditions
A central figure among the released pond Serhiy Tykhanovskyi is the husband of Svitlana Tykhanovskyi, a former video blogger whose call to run for president in 2020 caused an explosion. Arrested even before the elections, he was sentenced to 18 years in a high-security prison on charges of “preparation of mass riots.” The regime brutally isolated him – kept him in a complete information blockade for years, without letters and meetings, without lawyers. Only after his release, Tykhanovsky said that he spent more than four years in solitary confinement, with constant food restrictions, without medical care and under pressure from the colony’s administration.
Together with him, 13 other people were released, including journalists, scientists, activists, as well as several foreigners from the USA, Poland, Japan, Sweden, Latvia, and Estonia. The complete lists of those released have not yet been officially published, but human rights activists have already confirmed the facts of the transfer of these persons to third countries, in particular, Tsykhanovsky met his wife in Lithuania shortly after his release.
Can this step be seen as a sign of liberalization? Hardly. Today, according to the Vesna human rights center, there are between 1,100 and 1,300 political prisoners in Belarus, and their number is constantly growing. Repression did not stop. They just changed the intensity.
Experts believe that the dismissal became part of Lukashenka’s big political game: a signal to the West about readiness for “dialogue”, in return – with the expectation of concessions in the sanctions policy. This approach is not new. Lukashenko has repeatedly used “political amnesties” as a bargaining tool: the release of several prisoners in exchange for the normalization of relations or financial support. The only difference is that this time the action took place after the visit of the US representative.
Kellogg’s visit was certainly not a personal initiative – it took place with the agreement of Donald Trump’s team, and Kellogg himself acted rather as a channel of a political signal. Similarly, the release of political prisoners was not a gesture of humanity on the part of Lukashenka, but part of a deliberately calculated diplomatic game. This is evidence of readiness for a cautious “unfreezing” of relations with the USA, especially against the background of the approaching American elections. However, for the Belarusian opposition and the vast majority of citizens, this looks like a banal trade in human destinies – without changes to the system and without guarantees.
Instead of a conclusion: diplomacy without illusions
Political prisoners remain in Belarus. Sanctions against Minsk have not been lifted. Lukashenko is still an authoritarian leader who has ruled the country for over 30 years. But the world has changed and perhaps the West is forced to change its tools.
In a period of growing instability in the region and Russia’s constant attempts to gain an advantage in various directions, the United States seeks to regain the initiative. And despite the obvious risks, Minsk may unexpectedly turn into a platform for a new diplomatic game.
