Will the US force Venezuelan authoritarian leader Maduro to step down in exchange for amnesty?
It is interesting to observe what diplomatic tricks the USA – a superpower that determines the weather in different parts of the planet – resorts to in order to achieve its goal by removing authoritarian leaders from power and bringing in their protégés instead. Such an intervention of a superpower seems quite appropriate if it is about removing a despotic leader whose rule was accompanied by an economic crisis, hyperinflation and food shortages in the state.
In accordance with Wall Street Journal, Washington is currently discussing the possibility of pardoning Venezuela’s tyrannical leader Nicolás Maduro and his henchmen, who have been indicted by the US Department of Justice on drug-trafficking and corruption charges. In particular, he is accused of cooperating with drug cartels and using state resources for personal gain.
The immediate reason for the negotiations was the re-election of Maduro for a third term, which took place in July and caused complaints in the opposition about his legitimacy. The opposition is sure that the election results were rigged. Edmundo Gonzalez and opposition leader Maria Corina Machado said Gonzalez actually got twice as many votes as Maduro. Independent observers from the Carter Center and the United Nations plan to publish their findings. The US Secretary of State has called for transparency in the counting of votes, and many Venezuelans intend to leave the country.
After the official announcement of Maduro’s victory, protests, mostly peaceful, took place in the Bolivarian Republic. If Maduro’s supporters see him as a successor to the socialist revolution, critics accuse him of destroying democracy and the economy.
What are the trump cards in American diplomacy
People familiar with Washington’s negotiations with Maduro’s representative emphasize that the Biden administration made every effort to convince Maduro to resign before the end of his term. Washington has made it clear that it will not force Western oil companies to withdraw from the Venezuelan market.
It is not the first time that the United States has initiated the removal of Maduro from a high position. This initiative should promote democratic changes in the country. But Maduro – a former bus driver, who at one time was raised by the social elevator to unimaginable heights – renounces any agreements to continue to be at the wheel in the future.
The WSJ believes the US effort could prove futile if Trump is re-elected in November, given his previous tough stance on Venezuela. By the way, Maduro himself is suspicious of any proposals of the American establishment. Despite this, the Biden administration lifted most sanctions against Venezuela this year, citing its dire financial situation, hoping to encourage it to hold democratic elections.
How sanctions affect the economy of Venezuela
In October 2023, the US lifted sanctions against the Bolivarian Republic’s state oil, gas and mining sectors after Maduro’s government agreed to work with the opposition to hold free elections in 2024.
However, in April, oil sanctions were reinstated due to the actions of President Maduro, who sabotaged free elections. The renewal of sanctions due to the irresponsible behavior of a stubborn autocrat and eccentric could negatively affect the global oil market and increase the number of Venezuelan migrants at the US-Mexico border.
Why the US is interested in Venezuela
In general, the US is interested in Venezuela for several reasons. First, Venezuela is one of the largest oil-producing countries in the world and has a significant impact on the global energy market. And control over Venezuela’s oil resources is strategically important for the US.
Secondly, the world community is outraged by the violation of human rights and democracy in Venezuela. After all, Maduro’s despotic government even resorted to extrajudicial executions, torture and arbitrary detentions. The Venezuelan leader has been accused of restricting press freedom, arrests, prosecutions, intimidation and suppression of the opposition.
Finally, the USA, as a bastion of democracy, supports democratic changes and tries to influence the political situation in Venezuela. It is worth noting that due to its location in South America, Venezuela has geostrategic importance and can affect the stability of the region. Therefore, the Americans are watching the development of events in their neighboring “little Venice” taking into account their interests and geopolitical goals.
Potential consequences of Maduro’s removal from power
Among the possible positive consequences of removing Maduro from power is the opportunity for Venezuela to return to democracy and restore the rule of law, which in turn will improve the situation with human rights and reduce corruption.
It is likely that the resignation of the political despot will lead to the lifting of international sanctions and relief for foreign investors, which will improve the Venezuelan economy and promote regional cooperation and integration. The change of power will promote social stability, end political polarization and reduce violence in the country.
At the same time, it should be borne in mind that the removal of Maduro from power may provoke political instability, as different factions compete for power. This can lead to violence and human rights violations.
Such a political gambit could cause economic turmoil as the country rebuilds its economy and rebuilds investor confidence. Deposing a dictator can lead to unemployment and lower living standards. Maduro’s supporters may resort to violence and sabotage to destabilize the country and avenge their leader’s resignation.
In addition, Maduro’s removal from power could lead to external intervention, as regional and international powers seek to influence the outcome of events in Venezuela. This can complicate the process of transition to democracy.
Tatyana Morarash
