An asteroid could hit the Moon and cause an explosion that would threaten Earth’s satellites
In 2032, the Moon could become a target for a cosmic impact: the asteroid 2024 YR4, about 60 meters in diameter, has a 4.3% chance of hitting the Earth’s satellite. As scientists warn, in the event of such a scenario, up to 100 million kilograms of debris will be thrown into space. Some of them – up to 10% – may end up in the orbit of our planet and pose a threat to satellite systems. This was reported by the publication Sciencealert citing a new scientific study that is currently in preprint status—that is, it has not yet undergone independent peer review.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 has previously attracted the attention of astronomers due to the potential threat of a direct collision with Earth. At that time, the risk level reached 3.1%, a record high for an object of this size. However, later observations clarified the trajectory, and scientists excluded the scenario of a direct impact on the planet.
The new study is not focused on Earth, but on a potential collision with the Moon. Simulations show that if an impact occurs, the energy of the explosion will be equal to a powerful nuclear detonation. The greatest danger is not debris entering the Earth’s atmosphere – it will protect the planet from small particles – but the risk to satellites, particularly in low and geostationary orbits.
It is especially critical if the impact occurs on the hemisphere of the Moon that faces the Earth. According to calculations, this may lead to the fact that part of the debris will be captured by the Earth’s gravity. An impact of this scale will cause a real meteorite shower in the coming days — the intensity of the cosmic “rain” may exceed normal indicators by more than a thousand times. For astronomers and ordinary observers on Earth, it will be a spectacular light show, but for the orbital infrastructure – a serious risk.
Physicist Wiegert, one of the authors of the study, explains: “A centimeter-sized stone flying at a speed of tens of thousands of meters per second is already a projectile.” In his opinion, the future debris flow could damage or even destroy a large number of satellites, which are likely to be even more numerous in 2032 than now.
Although the final orbital calculations and risk decisions are not expected before 2028, scientists do not exclude the possibility of preparing a planetary defense mission. At the same time, as Wiegert warns, any intervention in the trajectory of 2024 YR4 under the conditions of its close passage to Earth is an extremely difficult and potentially dangerous task.
