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Beyond the horizon of return: how Ukraine is losing its future in a female face

Abroad, many Ukrainian women have already built a new life, their children go to local schools, new acquaintances have appeared, daily routes have become clear, and daily chores have become predictable. Ukraine remains in the phone, in the news feed, in video calls with relatives and friends. Memories of home fade more and more, giving way to a routine that gives a sense of security. For thousands of women, returning to their country is not an option, and it is not just about the war. More and more Ukrainian women do not see in the current Ukraine a space that is ready to accept, protect and give resistance.

What is behind the figures of Ukrainian migration to the EU

At the beginning of 2025 map resettlement of Ukrainian refugees in the EU has not changed much. Germany, Poland and the Czech Republic continue to receive the most Ukrainians. More than 1.17 million people received temporary shelter in Germany, which is more than a quarter of all Ukrainian refugees in the European Union. Poland gave shelter to almost a million, and the Czech Republic to almost 400 thousand.

In January, the number of people under protection in the EU increased by more than 25,000 people, and most of them arrived precisely in the countries that already have the most Ukrainians. So, Germany accepted another 8.8 thousand, the Czech Republic — more than 6 thousand, and Spain — more than 3 thousand. At the same time, some countries, in particular Denmark, France, Austria and Lithuania, on the contrary, recorded a decrease in the number of immigrants from Ukraine. Denmark lost more than 6% of registered Ukrainians in a month, which indicates the internal mobility of refugees within the EU and shifting priorities.

Social cut is also telling: almost half of Ukrainians under protection are adult women (mostly women aged 35-44 — 13%), one third were children, and less than a quarter of men. This demographic structure only emphasizes that the burden of adaptation and building a new life abroad most often falls on the shoulders of women with children.

But despite all the difficulties of adaptation abroad, more and more Ukrainian women report their reluctance to return home, even after the end of hostilities. This alarming trend is indicated by the results research, conducted by scientists of the Laboratory for the Study of Wars and Catastrophes of the Pedagogical University named after the Commission of National Education in Krakow. Ukrainian women who ended up in Poland because of the war are gradually taking root in the new reality. Over the past six months, the number of those who plan to return to Ukraine after the end of hostilities has significantly decreased. If in the fall of 2024 there were 41% of them, then at the beginning of 2025 their number decreased to 31%. At the same time, the number of those who are not in a hurry to return, but are consciously building a new life on the Polish side of the border, is growing. A third of Ukrainian women want to stay in Poland forever, and 13% are already thinking about Polish citizenship.

These numbers are not just statistics, but a mirror of deeper changes. Women who until recently fled from sirens and explosions with suitcases and children in their hands are now trying to build at least some guarantees of stability. However, domestic adaptation turned out to be no less difficult than the escape itself. Despite the fact that 60% of them already have a job, only a third was able to get a job in their field. The rest are either forced to accept lower positions, or constantly face problems in their search due to the language barrier, non-recognition of Ukrainian diplomas and generally low wages. Most of the employed women represent the middle class and before the full-scale war had a stable job, higher education and did not count on humanitarian aid.

The language barrier remains a critical obstacle to integration, as 68% named it as the main problem when looking for a job. Even those who work often experience emotional and professional burnout because they cannot realize themselves in their usual environment. About 39% of women have already sought psychological help, but at the same time, 60% try to cope with crises on their own.

However, despite all the difficulties, Poland is perceived as a safe space. The level of satisfaction with safety and transport infrastructure among Ukrainian women is 76%. But medical services, earnings and the general financial situation of families still cause little satisfaction.

It is noteworthy that the desire to return to Ukraine is not related to economic pressure, but primarily to security and systemic changes. Among the conditions that would encourage women to return, the first place is still the final end of the war (61%), followed by the complete absence of hostilities and airstrikes (40%), a stable, well-paid job in Ukraine (34%) and the eradication of corruption (31%). On the other hand, the temporary nature of legal stay in Poland and the termination of social benefits have almost no effect on their plans. Only 5% and 1%, respectively, indicated these factors as a reason for possible return.

It is interesting that more and more women are visiting Ukraine. Yes, 10% do it constantly, another third visited their homeland several times after coming to Poland. However, 35% of Ukrainian women never came home. This may indicate both security concerns and an internal psychological break with pre-war life.

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Social integration is also undergoing transformations. The attitude of Polish society, which was mostly warm at the beginning of the full-scale war, changed over time. Currently, 39% of Ukrainian women rate it as neutral, and 18% say it is frankly negative. Despite this, only 15% of women said that possible prejudice on the part of Poles could be the reason for returning to Ukraine.

At the same time, activity on the labor market is also increasing. Women are not just looking for work, but are trying to integrate, develop, and build long-term plans. 31% are actively looking for work, another 32% are considering such an opportunity. Some do not work because of childcare, education or retirement age.

As we can see, according to the results of the study, Poland ceases to be a temporary shelter for many of these women, and this situation is followed in other foreign countries. Every day, Ukrainian women are more and more convinced that it is possible to give their children stability abroad, find a job, and start life from scratch. The decrease in those willing to return should not be perceived as betrayal, indifference or despair. This is an ordinary adaptation, although tough and realistic. And it manifests itself in queues for language courses, in the quiet struggle for the legalization of a diploma, in attempts to rebuild life in a foreign country, which becomes a little less foreign every month.

Life after fleeing: why Ukrainian women do not want to return home

We all remember very well how mass resettlement began as a result of the terrible and cynical full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation into Ukraine. Ukrainian women left in a hurry, rescuing children, grabbing documents and collected things. There was not much in the suitcases: a few things, medicines, anxiety in the chest. Now, in the fourth year of a full-scale war, many of them have what Ukraine did not have even in peacetime: access to education, medicine, language courses, stable infrastructure, social support.

But it is worth understanding that now Ukrainian women have the feeling that the future, although not easy, is possible. Return no longer sounds like a natural need for them, it increasingly looks like a risk. Own housing in Ukraine is destroyed or is in the zone of constant threat. The state does not have the resources either to restore the housing stock or to provide transparent and effective compensation. It is clear that hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians actually lost a roof over their heads. Those who have returned often face the same problems that pushed people to flee. Women perfectly understand that official indifference, bureaucratic traps, and lack of real support mechanisms await them here.

Those who currently live abroad are more and more clearly expressing their reluctance to return, because they do not see opportunities for self-realization at home. Uncertainty with the post-war economy, vague reconstruction plans, and a deep crisis of confidence in the state create a sense of impasse. Ukraine officially reports on plans for the reconstruction of cities and regions, presents architectural concepts and figures in reports, but women do not see how this turns into real steps that affect them personally.

Not everyone is ready to live in a country where they promise, but do not guarantee. Meanwhile, Poland, Germany, the Czech Republic, and the Baltic states offer conditions that turn out to be decisive. People need stability, predictability, access to work, education, and social services. It was these opportunities that became the point of support that Ukrainian women did not find at home even before the war. For many, it was here that a new horizon opened in the form of language courses that open the way to a profession, state programs that promote retraining. In the conditions of constant uncertainty in Ukraine, these simple guarantees become of great importance. Especially for women who are used to relying only on themselves. In EU countries, they not only adapted, but also began to develop. And this approach increasingly resembles one’s own life, rather than survival.

And at this time, Ukraine is gradually losing part of its population. And here we are talking not only about physical presence in the country, but about trust that the country is able to provide protection, development and future. While Europe provides tools, Ukraine offers only empty promises. While the state rhetoric is reduced to counting refugees on paper, refugee women themselves count their chances for a new life. It is quite clear that very often in such circumstances the choice will not be made in favor of return.

Different Europe: how Ukrainian women adapt in different EU countries

When it comes to the life of Ukrainian refugee women in Europe, you should not talk about the EU as something homogeneous. In reality, the conditions, prospects and attitudes towards refugees differ significantly depending on the country. And it is these differences that often become decisive in choosing to stay, return or move on.

It is worth noting that although Poland is the closest geographically and culturally, it is still not the most popular for long-term plans. Many Ukrainian women started their life in the EU right here, but some of them are already considering options for moving to other countries. Among the reasons for this change, women point to limited opportunities for growth, an oversaturated labor market, a decrease in social support and growing fatigue of the host society. At the same time, Poland remains popular due to language proximity, relative availability of housing and jobs.

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Germany is becoming increasingly popular among refugees from Ukraine because it offers the largest range of social services and adaptation programs. Here, Ukrainian women can take free language courses, get retraining, find a qualified job or learn a new profession. Bureaucracy makes access to some resources difficult, but at the same time the system is stable and predictable. It is in Germany that many women begin to talk about the future not with an eye on war, but with an eye on self-realization.

In the Czech Republic, the government is purposefully developing integration policies specifically for women with children. Ukrainian women have access to kindergartens, health insurance, basic social benefits and employment assistance programs. However, the labor market is quite limited for highly qualified female specialists, so some women work in temporary or physical jobs.

Italy and Spain are attractive with a mild climate, openness of local communities and flexible lifestyle, but here Ukrainian women often face shadowy work related to caring for the elderly or housework. Despite this, some women value “informal” stability in the form of cash earnings, diaspora support, and a low threshold for entering the labor market.

Scandinavian countries offer a conditionally “elitist” direction. There are high social standards, but at the same time it is difficult to access the labor market without knowing the language and taking adaptation courses. Ukrainian women who got here have the support of the state, but often face cultural distance, closed communities and slow integration.

France and Austria offer formal opportunities, but with serious administrative barriers. The social security system is complex, employment requires a long procedure, and children’s education requires adaptation to the new language and educational system. Add to this the growing burden on local budgets, and many women feel more “tolerated” here than accepted.

As we can see, Ukrainian women choose countries not only based on the number of payments or the availability of housing, but also based on a deep sense of security, transparency of the system and the ability to influence their lives. Where there are rules, a clear structure and at least some chance for growth, women stay and, moreover, create new families by finding new husbands. At the same time, Ukraine becomes a silent observer of this movement from the sidelines, without a systematic policy of return and without understanding that these women can become the backbone of the post-war recovery, if they have somewhere to return and why.

The price of outflow: what risks the loss of refugee women poses to Ukraine

While state institutions keep records of resettled persons and report on regular plans for the return of refugees, Ukraine is slowly losing active, able-bodied and resourceful women. This process does not have a loud announcement, it is not recorded in operational summaries, but it is already forming long-term consequences for the post-war future. The mass exodus of Ukrainian women is not only a humanitarian or emotional challenge. It is clear that this is a strategic threat, which the state policy for some reason ignores.

It is quite obvious that women of reproductive age are the key demographic resource of any country. The loss of a significant part of this category leads to an even deeper drop in the birth rate, which is already critical in Ukraine low (only 0.9 children per woman). Some of the women who remained in Europe are already giving birth abroad, enrolling them in the local health, education and social security systems. Every year, the probability that these children will connect their future with Ukraine is rapidly decreasing.

It is worth noting that many women who integrated in the EU countries were often highly qualified specialists in their native country: doctors, teachers, engineers, managers. They get new knowledge, take professional courses, learn languages. In a peaceful society, this would be a golden reserve for the modernization of the country. But without creating conditions for its return, this capital simply works for other states, enriching their economies. Ukraine financed their education, but the fruits of this investment are collected by countries with more attractive social policies.

Let’s not forget the fact that now a large part of men are drafted or involved in the army, and after the war the country will need a mass return of women to the labor market in education, medicine, the social sector, state administration, and small business. Missing part of this category will create a structural imbalance. In the labor market, there will be a noticeable lack of personnel, a drop in the quality of services, and an overload of those who remain. In addition, it will increase competition for qualified labor with other countries, which are already actively attracting Ukrainian women through integration programs.

And finally – regarding the diagnosis of trust. Ukrainian women who found themselves abroad, faced with clear procedures, clear rules, transparent medicine and social policy, realize what they lacked in their native country. They do not believe in the quick transformation of Ukraine into a place where these standards will become the norm. And restoring that trust will be much more difficult than restoring buildings or roads.

It is quite clear that Ukrainian women are embarrassed by the indifference of their native country. The state still perceives refugee women as “temporary absentees”, but the situation has already changed. Currently, millions of Ukrainian women have integrated, taken root, and started making long-term plans outside the country. The lack of a comprehensive return policy, reintegration program, affordable housing, support for small businesses for women can no longer be perceived as government mistakes, but rather as strategic self-weakening. Ukraine does not have and cannot afford the luxury of leaving these processes unanswered. If the country really wants to recover socially, economically, and culturally after the war, it should start a dialogue with those who are not at home now. And this dialogue should not be based on slogans about patriotism, but on trust, specific conditions and clear guarantees.

 

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