In 2024, clean energy crossed a landmark for the first time — more than 40% of global electricity production fell on it. The breakthrough became possible thanks to the unprecedented growth of renewable sources, primarily solar energy, which has turned into a real engine of the global energy transition. Solar energy is breaking record after record: in 2024, the volumes of generation and installed capacities reached new historical highs. Over the past three years, the sun has doubled its presence in the global energy balance and provided the world with more electricity than any other source.
However, despite these impressive dynamics, the total consumption of electricity in 2024 increased even more significantly. The technologies of the future — artificial intelligence, data centers, electric cars, heat pumps — all of this significantly increases the global demand for electricity today. But the main driver of this jump is not technological progress, but an abnormally hot summer. Prolonged heat waves have dramatically increased the use of air conditioners, and they are the main reason for the small but noticeable return to fossil fuels. As a result, the emissions of the energy sector increased to a historical maximum.
Infographic: IA “FACT”
Energy breakdown: between the coal of the past and the sun of the future
The world is faced with a choice: on the one hand, the rapid development of renewable energy, on the other hand, the aggravation of the climate crisis, which forces a return to the use of outdated and environmentally harmful coal-fired power plants.
In the coming years, global energy will form two giant trends: the rapid growth of the share of solar energy in electricity production and the constant growth of demand for electricity, which is increasingly displacing oil, coal and gas in the global economy.
These changes are not a matter of the future, they are already happening right now. Over the past three years, solar energy has become the main source of new electricity in the world. Its growth is not just stable, it is exponential. At the same time, new industries — electric cars, heat pumps, data centers — are becoming a noticeable driver of demand: they alone add 0.7% to annual global electricity consumption. This is twice as much as five years ago.
The world is gradually approaching a critical point where net generation growth starts to overtake structural demand growth. In such conditions, short-term fluctuations in the amount of fossil energy are no longer determined by industrial trends, but depend on the weather. So it was in 2024, when heat and air conditioners forced some countries to restart coal turbines. But even that doesn’t change the bottom line: the rise of clean energy and the development of flexible technologies — such as battery storage systems — are steadily reducing the need for coal, gas, or oil-fired power plants.
Even if electricity demand were to grow by 4.1% annually until 2030—significantly higher than current projections—the rate at which clean generation is growing is capable of meeting such a challenge. The role of decisive players in this process is played by the largest developing countries. China and India, despite their former focus on coal, are now increasingly building an energy future based on solar, wind and hydropower. China alone will install more than 200 GW of new solar generation in 2024 — more than the entire EU combined in the previous two years.
This means one thing: the global balance is inevitably changing. The axis of energy gravity is shifting — from the fossil past to the renewable future.
Energy Pendulum: Clean energy is on the rise, but the planet is still heated by coal
Despite the rapid growth of “green” generation, the year 2024 shows that humanity is still far from energy purity. Only 41% of the world’s electricity is produced from clean sources, and the rest is still provided by fossil fuels, which generously “thank” the atmosphere with 14.6 billion tons of CO₂.
Infographic: IA “FACT”
Leaders and outsiders are obvious here. Brazil is a champion of decarbonization: 90% of its electricity is clean, with almost no emissions. The European Union is also holding the bar – more than 70% of energy is produced without harming the climate, and a third of this is thanks to wind and sun.
But China, although the record holder in terms of net generation, is still 62% dependent on fossil fuels. India and Russia are even further behind, with only 2-3 for every 10 kilowatt-hours coming from clean sources. Their energy still breathes coal.
It is telling that in a world where solar and wind are becoming cheaper than oil, we are still paying the biggest price – climate.
What 100% clean energy looks like: lessons from leaders
Imagine a country where almost all electricity comes from renewable sources. This is not a futuristic dream, but a reality for several states that have become pioneers in the field of clean energy. Consider the experience of Iceland, Norway and Brazil — countries that have demonstrated that the transition to renewable sources is possible and profitable.
Iceland is real champion from the use of renewable sources. Almost 100% of its electricity is produced from clean sources: about 73% from hydroelectric power plants and 27% from geothermal plants. Such a structure of the energy industry became possible thanks to unique natural conditions: rich water resources and geothermal activity. This allows Iceland not only to meet its own needs, but also to attract energy-intensive industries, such as aluminum production, thanks to low electricity costs.
Infographic: IA “FACT”
Norway too is a leader in the field of renewable energy, where more than 98% of electricity is produced from clean sources. Hydropower dominates, providing about 88% of the country’s electricity, while wind adds about another 10%. Norway uses its mountainous topography and numerous rivers to develop hydropower, which allows not only to meet domestic demand, but also to export electricity to neighboring countries.
Brazil, the largest country in South America, as well reached significant progress in the use of renewable sources. In 2023, 91% of electricity came from clean sources, with hydropower accounting for 60% and wind and solar combined for 21%. In 2024, the country added a record 10.9 GW of new capacity, mostly from solar power. However, dependence on hydropower makes Brazil vulnerable to climate change: droughts can lower water levels in dams, prompting the search for additional energy sources.
The experience of these countries demonstrates that the transition to renewable energy sources is possible even on a large scale. Key success factors include adaptation to local conditions and maximum use of available renewable sources, government support and favorable conditions for investors that stimulate the development of green energy, implementation of the latest technologies to increase efficiency and stability of energy supply.
What will fossil fuels do?
The final blow to fossil energy can be delivered not only by the sun and wind, but by a new generation of technologies. First of all, energy storage systems: batteries that are becoming cheaper, more powerful and more accessible. They are able to compensate for the instability of “green” generation by storing excess energy during peak hours and releasing it when production drops. These are joined by flexible grids that dynamically balance supply and demand in real time, and hydrogen — especially green — as a strategic solution for heavy industry and transportation, where electrification is less efficient. Together, these technologies form a new infrastructure that is sustainable, adaptive, and devoid of carbon footprints. And if their development continues at the current pace, coal may finally lose its economic meaning in the next ten years.
