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China vs the US: who leads the new global ranking of superpowers

In today’s world, the influence of leading countries is determined not only by their military power, but also by their economic strength, level of innovation and demographic potential. In his new Superpower Index 2024, renowned investor and founder of Bridgewater Associates Ray Dalio presents an analytical assessment of the global players shaping the world’s geopolitical landscape. This ranking offers a comprehensive view of how key powers compete for influence in global society, using various indicators that reflect their overall power. ‘The ability to earn money, save money, and invest in capital is an effective incentive for people and a mechanism for allocating resources that raises living standards,’ Ray Dalio notes in the latest Network X post. The measure of state power is a must for the index developer, as it focuses on ordinary citizens, not just converts the geopolitical ambitions of a country into numbers.

There is no doubt that the 2024 Index is especially important against the backdrop of geopolitical instability, the war in Ukraine, the growing role of China and the United States, and changes in the global economy.

Below is an infographic showing the main findings of the Dalio Index.

China vs the US: who leads the new global ranking of superpowers
Infographic: IA FACT
China vs the US: who leads the new global ranking of superpowers
Infographic: IA FACT

Global leadership of the United States

The United States continues to maintain its status as a leading superpower due to its significant influence on global financial markets and leadership in technological innovation. The dominance of the US currency on the world stage is a key element of this strength. The US dollar is used in 85-90% of all global foreign exchange transactions, accounts for 59% of global foreign exchange reserves and provides about half of international bank loans. In addition, the US stock market is the largest in the world. Its capitalisation accounts for 61% of the total capitalisation of all global markets, which confirms the key role of the United States in the global economy.

This financial strength, coupled with continuous technological advances, including leadership in areas such as artificial intelligence, defence technology and internet giants, allows the US to remain the undisputed leader in global processes and set trends in the international arena.

Strengthening China’s global position

China, which holds the position of the world’s largest exporter, continues to strengthen its position thanks to its strength in international trade and significant economic output. One example of this is the rapid growth in trade with Latin America: from $12 billion in 2000 to an impressive $315 billion in 2020. These figures reflect China’s ability to integrate into global markets and expand its economic presence around the world.

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In addition to its economic strength, China is strengthening its global position through the rapid growth of its military. Today, the country has the largest navy in the world and is actively modernising its defence sector by investing in advanced military technologies and increasing defence spending. This allows China to become a significant player not only in the economy but also in global security and geopolitics.

India – the paradox of power

This situation arises when a country has significant economic or geopolitical influence on the world stage, but its citizens, at the individual level, do not benefit proportionately due to low per capita income or unequal distribution of wealth.

India, currently ranked 7th among the world’s largest economies, is projected to have the fastest real GDP growth over the next decade. This will be driven by large-scale investment in infrastructure projects and a favourable demographic structure, including a young population that is becoming a driver of economic development.

However, despite the overall economic recovery, India ranks last in terms of GDP per capita among the leading economies. This is due to its relatively low average income per capita and significant wealth inequality. Thus, although India is experiencing strong economic growth, social inequality remains a significant challenge to further improving the living standards of the population.

Singapore: a model of economic success and equality

Singapore, on the other hand, has the highest GDP per capita among the countries in the world. This indicates that the country’s economic power and wealth are most evenly distributed among its population. This island nation has become an important global centre for finance and trade, thanks to its strategic location, developed infrastructure and stable political environment.

Foreign direct investment is one of the key drivers of Singapore’s economic growth. Due to its favourable business climate, transparent regulations and high level of education, Singapore attracts numerous international corporations seeking to locate their regional headquarters in the country. This, in turn, is driving the development of various sectors of the economy, such as financial services, technology, manufacturing and logistics.

Singapore is also actively investing in the development of innovations and new technologies, which further enhances the country’s competitiveness on the global stage. Attracting highly skilled professionals and supporting start-ups help the country to stay at the forefront of global economic trends. Thus, Singapore’s high GDP per capita not only reflects its economic success, but also shows that this success is accessible to the majority of the population.

Germany: Europe’s economic and technological powerhouse

Germany is Europe’s leading economy with a strong industrial base and high levels of prosperity. Its per capita strength reflects the efficiency of its economy, and its technology sector is strengthening its position in the global market. Germany’s military role is less significant, but it remains influential through its economic and political influence in the EU.

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Eurozone: the collective strength of the European economy

The Eurozone includes the most powerful economies in Europe, making it one of the largest trading blocs in the world. The common currency and high level of integration of the member states increase stability and international influence. The high standard of living in the Eurozone countries reflects their considerable economic strength.

Japan: technologies are developing, population is ageing

Japan is one of the largest producers of high-tech products in the world, with a powerful economy that ranks third in terms of GDP in the world. The country is known for its achievements in robotics, electronics, automotive and innovative technologies, making it a global leader in these fields. However, despite its successful economy, Japan is facing serious demographic challenges, including an ageing population and low birth rates, which pose challenges to sustainable economic growth. A shrinking labour force and increased spending on social programmes to support the elderly population are forcing the government to look for ways to boost productivity and attract foreign workers. Despite these challenges, Japan’s technological efficiency and high level of innovation allow it to remain competitive and play an important role in the global economic arena.

South Korea: technological innovation and strategic location

South Korea has achieved significant economic growth, becoming a global leader in digital technology, innovation and high-tech industry. Its cutting-edge companies such as Samsung and Hyundai are symbols of global success, and investments in education and research have made the country one of the most innovative in the world. Its high level of per capita productivity is a testament to the efficiency of its economic model and the high standard of living of its citizens.

In contrast to North Korea, which remains isolated with an authoritarian regime and low economic development, South Korea is an example of a successful democracy and market economy. South Korea is actively integrated into the global economy and is a key trading partner for many countries. Its strategic location between China and Japan, as well as tense relations with North Korea, make it an important player in regional geopolitics, especially in matters of security and stability on the Korean Peninsula.

UK: a global player despite Brexit challenges

The United Kingdom maintains its economic and military weight on the global stage, despite the difficulties it has faced since leaving the EU. London remains a key financial centre that supports the country’s economic stability, while its military capabilities and diplomatic ties help it maintain international influence.

Thus, the ‘Superpower Index 2024’ by Ray Dalio identifies the main global players, where the United States and China continue to lead the way. The United States dominates due to its influence on financial markets and technological innovation, while China is strengthening its position due to economic growth and military power. Other countries such as India, Japan, Germany, Singapore and the UK are also playing important roles, each with their own strengths and weaknesses that are shaping the new global balance of power.

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