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Demographic bluff: will “active longevity” solve the crisis in the labor market

Ukraine is rapidly aging… The war, emigration and falling birth rate are creating a demographic pit from which simple slogans are impossible to get out of. But the authorities insist that the recipe for success lies in active longevity. Older people, since there are more of them, have to work longer, move more and support the economy. While the quality of life does not improve, medicine and social support are reduced, the recipe for “longevity” no longer resembles a good, but a forced survival strategy.

Today, government calls for active longevity and banning ageism sound more and more often. The authorities are asking older people to be mobile, work longer, and remain socially involved. In peacetime, this might seem like a progressive policy that allows retirees to feel needed. But when the country is at war, when the standard of living is falling, medicine is working at the limit of possibilities, and young people are leaving en masse, these statements take on a different tone.

The aging of the nation in numbers

The demographic crisis in Ukraine is not a forecast for the future, but a reality. In recent years, the country has lost millions of people: some left, others died, others were simply not born.

As of 2024, there are 10.516 million people of retirement age in Ukraine. This number has slightly decreased compared to 2023 (10.687 million people). The largest number of pensioners in Ukraine is concentrated in the following areas:

  • Dnipropetrovsk region – 887 thousand people;
  • Kyiv – 752 thousand people;
  • Kharkiv region – 723 thousand people.

The report of the UN Foundation states that the average life expectancy in Ukraine as of 2024 is 64.1 years. So,

  • the average life expectancy of men is 57.3 years;
  • the average life expectancy of women is 70.9 years.

According to experts’ forecasts, by 2040 the average life expectancy will increase to 71 years. The standard of living for men will be 66 years, and for women – 75.8 years.

Currently, 20.2% of the population is over 65 years old, and the ratio of workers to pensioners is 1 to 1. That is, one worker already supports one pensioner. As you can see, Ukraine is rapidly turning into a country of pensioners. And this is not a loud statement, but a strict statistic. Today, every fifth Ukrainian is over 60 years old. A few more decades – and there will be almost a third of them. If this trend continues, very soon the country will have to look for who will work, pay taxes and support the economy. An aging population creates a vicious circle. The more people retire, the more pressure falls on the shoulders of working people. But the number of able-bodied Ukrainians is rapidly decreasing. Already now there are more and more pensioners for each employee, and this proportion is becoming catastrophic. Added to this is another problem: an aging nation needs not only financial support, but also huge resources for medicine, social protection and care.

Add to this the death rate, which in the country in the period from 2018 to 2020 already exceeded the birth rate twice. In 2024, it is also the highest and is 18.6 per 1000 people. In the first half of 2024, 250,972 citizens died, which was three times the number of newborns. By data “Ukravtoprom”, in the period from 2022 to 2024, only one road accident took the lives of more than 9 thousand Ukrainians. Inexorable statistics also record between 460 and 500 thousand deaths from cardiovascular diseases every year. In 2023 in Ukraine from cardiovascular diseases died about 67,000 people — that’s 11.3% more than in 2022. Coronary heart disease accounted for nearly half of these deaths, claiming more than 30,000 lives. Although men have a higher risk of developing heart disease, it increases significantly after menopause in women. In addition, the consequences of the war and the COVID-19 pandemic have led to the fact that cardiovascular diseases in Ukraine are “getting younger”. If earlier heart attacks and strokes most often occurred in people older than 60 years, now these diagnoses are more often made at 45-50 years of age.

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And so, against the background of all these indifferent indicators, while the population of Ukraine is aging, and the pension system is working at the limit of possibilities, officials unanimously claim that the concept of active longevity can save everything. Today it is one of the priorities”Demographic development strategies of Ukraine until 2040”, adopted by the government in 2024. It is not just about increasing the length of life, but about its quality. The main emphasis is on preserving health, working capacity and reducing the rate of premature mortality under the age of 65. According to the first deputy minister of social policy Darina Marchak, everything is very simple, because it is enough to do sports, undergo regular medical examinations and not worsen the demographic situation with your premature death.

It is clear that in such conditions any government is looking for a way out. But betting on active longevity looks more like an attempt to buy time than a real strategy.

Ukrainian officials sincerely believe in active longevity. In their understanding, it is when pensioners after 60 do yoga in the morning, run a successful business in the afternoon, and in the evening – discuss the latest in culture in the art space. They really don’t understand why other retirees can’t do the same. After all, living after 60 is wonderful! Especially if your pension consists of a state salary, allowances, bonuses, a free company car and rest in foreign sanatoriums.

Meanwhile, in a parallel reality – that is, in the lives of ordinary Ukrainians – longevity has a slightly different appearance. Here, “activity” after retirement is not a hobby or a sport, but an attempt to find a part-time job to make ends meet. This is a morning trip to the market with a strict calculation of what to afford today – milk or blood pressure medicine. These are queues in hospitals, where you can get a ticket to a specialist sooner than for an appointment.

When officials talk about active longevity, they don’t understand that it requires a high quality of life. They didn’t stand in worn-out shoes at the bus stop, waiting for a bus that doesn’t take people with special needs. They did not choose between the operation and “it will pass somehow”. They did not count pennies after going to the pharmacy. In their world, old age is a time of travel, healthy eating and morning runs. In the world of most Ukrainians, it is a struggle for survival.

So don’t be surprised when high offices call for “active longevity” again. It’s just people from another reality trying to tell how to live in ours.

Ageism in the Ukrainian labor market

In addition to the obvious health problems against the background of the war and the low standard of living, there are also problems with employment when you are over 50. Age discrimination in the labor market is not officially recognized in Ukraine, but ageism is widespread. Vacancies marked “under 35” still exist even in conditions of labor shortage, and a 45-year-old candidate hears not about his professional achievements at an interview, but about whether he will “fit into a young team.” Employers want energetic, adaptable and cheap employees, so experience turns from an asset to a burden.

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The war only exacerbated the problem. Men over 50 often lose their jobs because of “lack of prospects”, and women – because of stereotypes about their “low stress resistance”. Nevertheless, the shortage of personnel forces employers to increasingly pay attention to candidates over the age of 50, which used to be rare. The year 2024 became a turning point in this matter.

For data  According to the study “Barometer of the labor market 2024. Forecasts for 2025 are not promising” from the company GRC.ua, 77% of the surveyed employers said that they are ready to consider and hire such specialists if they meet the requirements of the position. Another 5% of companies plan to open vacancies for this category of employees.

Yes, yes data website Work.ua, the number of job offers for pensioners increased 2.5 times: in April 2023, employers offered pensioners 2,123 options, and in April 2024 – already 5,323. Sectors where employers willingly accept pensioners:

  • work specialties, production — 1,657 vacancies;
  • service sector — 1,358 vacancies;
  • transport, auto business — 1,153 vacancies;
  • logistics, warehouses — 817 vacancies.

But at the same time, 18% of employers are still not ready to hire older employees and do not plan to change this position.

Meanwhile, the world has long understood that economic growth is impossible without the involvement of all age groups. Ukraine, on the other hand, runs the risk of having a labor market where qualified specialists are left behind just because their CV does not show the appropriate age.

What is the secret of active longevity abroad?

In the world, active longevity is not perceived as a banal call to “move more”. It is a comprehensive strategy that begins long before retirement. Successful countries have invested in health, education and economic opportunities for older people. In Sweden, Japan or Canada, no one suggests that pensioners simply work longer to “close” the demographic crisis. There, the state guarantees the conditions under which people want and can remain active.

In Europe, the development of medicine allows pensioners to remain healthy and, therefore, independent. In Scandinavia, the state covers most of the costs of rehabilitation, preventive examinations, specialized nutrition and physical activity. In Japan, there is a system of “cities for all age groups”, where the infrastructure is created so that elderly people can comfortably move, work or volunteer. In Spain and Portugal, older people participate in special educational programs that allow them to retrain and remain in demand on the labor market.

So, the state offers Ukrainians to work longer, but does not provide the tools for this. Elderly people have to choose between the need to earn and health problems. Medicine is shrinking, there are few jobs for people 50+, and social programs are weak. For active longevity to become a reality, we need more than just slogans, but also real changes: affordable medicine, support for physical activity, opportunities for education and work without age discrimination. And while in Ukraine it is more about rhetoric than about strategy, people’s mature and old age will remain not a period of opportunities, but a test of strength.

 

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