The FACT news agency has already offered a brief political biography of a controversial personality who has already occupied the Oval Office as the 45th President of the United States and is seeking to return there as the 47th President. We believe it is worth recalling what his course was during his previous term in office to predict the direction of America – and the world – if a controversial candidate is elected.
‘Make America Great Again’
In the previous post, it was said that Maga King won the 2016 election by exploiting the discontent of his countrymen. Teflon Don tried to change the course of US foreign policy to a more isolationist one. The Republican leader revealed to the public the failures of American foreign policy, criticising the world order, but did not offer a clear plan for replacement. His inconsistent policies have included threats to North Korea followed by friendly summits with Kim Jong-un, bombing Syria and withdrawing troops from it.
Trump has criticised NATO for insufficient defence spending, calling allies ‘drones’, demanded increased defence funding and threatened not to defend countries that do not fulfil their obligations.
Withdrawal from the nuclear deal with Iran and the latter’s rejection
In 2016, Trump claimed that the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or the nuclear deal with Iran, was the ‘worst deal in history’. This agreement was concluded in 2015 between the United States, Iran, five other countries and the EU. The agreement allowed Iran to develop nuclear technology for non-military purposes under strict foreign supervision in exchange for the easing of economic sanctions.
Iran’s compliance with the JCPOA and the corresponding lifting of economic sanctions contributed to the revival of the country’s economy in 2015-2017. Iran gained access to some of its assets frozen in foreign banks and increased oil exports. This contributed to the inflow of additional funds into the country, which were used to finance pro-Iranian Shiite groups in the Middle East.
Trump believed that the deal did not provide sufficient control over Iran’s nuclear programme and allowed it to receive significant benefits to support terrorist groups. Along with other Republicans, Trump believed that the nuclear deal with Iran made excessive concessions and endangered Israel’s security. He feared that Iran could violate the agreement and develop nuclear weapons. At a meeting with French President Macron, Trump said:
‘It just seems that wherever you go, especially in the Middle East, wherever there are problems, Iran is behind them.’
Finally, in May 2018, the Trump administration announced the US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal. Teflon Don said that the deal allows Iran to continue enriching uranium and move closer to a nuclear disaster. He also accused Iran of spreading subversive activity in Syria, Yemen and other countries, as well as supporting the most radical terrorist groups – Hezbollah, Hamas, the Taliban and al-Qaeda.
Consequently, Trump has renewed and strengthened sanctions against Iran, which has led to the devaluation of the Iranian currency, restricted access of Iranian businesses to international financial markets and reduced foreign investment.
After the liquidation of Iranian Special Operations Commander Qasem Soleimani by order of Trump, Iran announced that it was lifting all restrictions on uranium enrichment and research activities. This was a response to the US actions and led to an increase in tensions between the countries. Naturally, this decision had an impact on international politics and the economy, increasing the risk of conflicts in the region and affecting global oil and other resource markets.
Trump failed to strike a better deal with Iran and force Tehran to capitulate to his demands. Current US President Biden, who once worked on the Iran nuclear deal as vice president under Obama, argued that Trump’s ‘maximum pressure’ policy on Iran had ‘unpleasant consequences’. Biden believes that Trump’s policy has not only failed to achieve its goals, but has made the situation worse. Not only has Iran not stopped its nuclear programme, but it has also been able to finance terrorist groups in the Middle East.
Biden also noted that the nuclear deal, although it had its shortcomings, still deterred Iran from developing nuclear weapons. The re-imposition of sanctions and withdrawal from the deal led to Iran’s abandonment of all restrictions on uranium enrichment and research activities.
‘Fire and Fury’ and attempts to negotiate with the North Korean ‘Fat Man’
During the first year of his presidency, Trump took a tough stance on North Korea’s long-range missile tests that could reach targets in the United States. He promised ‘fire and fury’ in response to any nuclear aggression by North Korea.
In 2018, Trump changed his approach. Relying on his diplomatic skills, he tried to resolve the decade-long standoff between the US and North Korea through a personal relationship with Kim Jong-un. They met in person three times. In 2019, Trump became the first sitting US president to visit North Korea.
Although Trump tried to resolve the problem with North Korea through personal meetings with Kim Jong-un, no concrete agreement was reached. Pyongyang resumed missile tests and in early 2021 unveiled a new ballistic missile launched from a submarine. This demonstrated that Trump failed to stop the DPRK’s nuclear and missile programme.
Trade war between the US and China
The trade war between the US and China began during Trump’s term and worsened relations between the two superpowers. In 2016, The Donald became one of the first US presidents since 1979 to meet with the leader of Taiwan. On his instructions, US Navy patrols in the Taiwan Strait were stepped up and arms sales to Taiwan increased.
Even during the election campaign, Teflon Don emphasised the unfavourable trade relations with China. In 2017, the trade deficit between the US and China reached $375 billion. In response, Trump launched a trade war by imposing tariffs of up to 25% on $350 billion worth of imports from China, which accounted for 2/3 of total imports in 2018. The tariffs were imposed on solar panels, washing machines, steel and aluminium.
Beijing responded to Uncle Sam by imposing tariffs on American goods, which led to an escalation of the conflict. Washington considered its customs policy to be fair, as it saw China’s failure to comply with the principles of fair competition, theft of intellectual property, preferences for state-owned enterprises, and financial fraud. This led to an escalation of the conflict and significant economic losses for both countries.
It is difficult to assess the impact of Trump’s trade wars with China. However, Biden has continued and even intensified this policy. Trump is currently promising to increase tariffs on Chinese imports by up to 60%. Chinese companies are already suffering from weak demand and oversupply. If Trump comes back and imposes such duties, China will have to look for new markets, but India, Brazil, and Mexico are already resisting Chinese imports.
Teflon Don’s activity in the Middle East
In the Middle East, Trump sought to end what he considered to be ‘unnecessary’ wars for the United States and bring the US military home as soon as possible. On 4 April 2017, President Bashar al-Assad’s forces used chemical weapons against rebels. Unlike his predecessor, Barack Obama, Trump did not hesitate to prevent this ‘red line’ from being crossed. In response, the US military attacked the Shayrat airfield in western Syria with Tomahawk missiles. Planes, petrol stations and runways were destroyed, from which planes carrying chemical weapons used against rebels in the province of Idlib took off.
By the end of 2017, the international coalition led by the United States eliminated the Islamic State terrorist organisation in Iraq. In February 2018, the Americans began to gradually reduce their military presence in the region, but the full withdrawal of troops did not take place.
At the end of 2017, Trump recognised Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and ordered the US embassy to move from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. This decision exacerbated the conflict between Israel and the Palestinian authorities. Most countries in the Arab and Muslim world condemned this move, considering it illegal and provocative.
During Trump’s presidency, his administration actively strengthened relations with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, forming a regional anti-Iraqi axis that helped put pressure on Iran after the US withdrew from the nuclear deal.
After the reduction of the US military presence in the region, the Trump administration considered Israel and Saudi Arabia to be Iran’s main deterrents. This was part of a strategy aimed at reducing Iran’s influence in the region and ensuring the security of US allies.
…It is not an exaggeration to say that President Donald Trump’s foreign policy reflects his personality: impulsive, provocative and mercantile. He has pointed out the many flaws in the world order and the mistakes of US foreign policy under previous administrations. NATO was dependent on the United States, China was using unfair methods of competition, and the Middle East was in chaos, caused by Iran. Trump has acted inconsistently, raising the stakes and trying to cut favourable deals for the US. Although he was often naive, as in the case of the DPRK, he managed to achieve some positive results.
Tatiana Morarash
