Ukraine is rapidly moving towards the demographic abyss. The population is declining catastrophically, the birth rate is falling, and millions of Ukrainians are moving abroad en masse in search of a better life. The demographic crisis is turning into a threat to national security, and the question of who will live and work in the country in 20-30 years is becoming increasingly acute. Against the background of these threats, a debate is emerging: can migrants from underdeveloped countries become a salvation for Ukraine?
In general, over the past decades, Ukraine has lost millions of citizens due to emigration, declining birth rates, and high mortality, and a full-scale invasion only accelerated this destructive process for the country. According to forecasts, by 2050 the country’s population may decrease to 30-35 million, which will endanger the functioning of the entire state. The pension system is already bursting at the seams, the economy is suffering from a labor shortage, and many regions have a catastrophic shortage of young people.
Demographic collapse
Opendatabot data show that in the first half of 2024, 87,655 children were born in Ukraine — this is 9% less than in the same period last year. At the same time, 250,972 deaths were recorded. In the country, the birth rate has decreased by 1.5 times in 2024 compared to the period before the full-scale invasion.
As of 2024, for data UNHCR, there are 6.48 million Ukrainians abroad, of which 6.004 million are concentrated in Europe, and 475.6 thousand people are in the USA and Canada.
The UNHCR survey showed that 65% of respondents plan to return to Ukraine, while 11% said they were unwilling to return. It is obvious that Ukraine suffers from a lack of people on the labor market. And this problem will become increasingly acute over time. Therefore, the society has long had a question about the involvement of labor migrants to improve the situation in the country. According to the calculations of the Ministry of Economy, in order to achieve GDP growth of 7% by 2032, the state must provide the labor market with about 4.5 million workers.
As notes executive director of the Center for Economic Recovery Kyrylo Kryvolap, as a result of the outflow of Ukrainians abroad and the aging of the nation that remains within the country, 2 million people will leave the labor market in 6 years. Kryvolap calls on the state to create all possible conditions for Ukrainians to return from abroad, as well as to develop legal norms of migration policy. Obviously, in order to get out of such a situation, it is necessary either to increase labor productivity, and thereby reduce the need for specialists, or to look for insufficient labor in other countries.
In order to solve the problem of labor shortage, it is necessary to invite migrants from other countries, according to the director of the Institute of Demography and Social Research named after Mykhailo Ptukha, Ella Libanova. But the attitude to such a perspective on the part of Ukrainian society turned out to be ambiguous.
Supporters of immigration claim that attracting labor from Africa, Asia and the Middle East can be a salvation for Ukraine. Migrants looking for a better life are ready to do work that Ukrainians are no longer willing or able to do due to mass emigration and an aging population. They can fill the budget with taxes, support the economy and even improve the demographic situation by having children.
But this is only one side of the coin. Opponents warn that a massive influx of migrants from countries with different cultural, religious and social traditions could lead to social tension, increased xenophobia and conflicts. Is Ukrainian society ready to accept a wave of immigrants and is the state able to ensure their full integration?
It is obvious that the Ukrainian labor market needs new workers. Due to emigration, hundreds of thousands of jobs remain vacant, and this is especially felt in agriculture, construction and the service sector. Migrants from underdeveloped countries could partially solve this problem if their work is properly legalized and socially protected.
However, the experience of many European countries shows that without a proper integration policy, migration can turn into a serious problem. Illegal work, the shadow market, inequality and the lack of social security are all risks that Ukraine may face.
Foreign experience in migration policy
The first wave of migration was the Syrian crisis, which began in 2011 and continues to this day. The civil war in Syria, persecution by the Assad regime, hostilities between various groups, ISIS – all this has caused a massive influx of migrants to European countries. More than 13 million Syrians have been forced to flee their homes, of which about 6.7 million have become refugees abroad. For Syria itself, this phenomenon had devastating consequences for the economy, the flight of qualified personnel and the destruction of infrastructure. Europe itself experienced a migration crisis in the EU in 2015, when hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees sought asylum. This led to an increase in social tension, xenophobia and the rise of populist movements. At that moment, Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan became the main receiving countries, which significantly increased the pressure on their economies, infrastructure and social services.
The second migration wave came from Venezuela in 2015 and continues to this day. The political crisis that occurred in the country led to hyperinflation, economic collapse, and shortages of food and medicine. At that time, more than 7 million people left Venezuela, mostly migrating to neighboring Latin American countries. The outflow of personnel, including doctors, engineers and other specialists, has significantly weakened Venezuela’s economy and health care. And the receiving countries of Colombia, Peru, Chile and Brazil, which accepted the main share of migrants, felt the growing tension in the labor market, problems in the field of social assistance and housing infrastructure, primarily for the local population.
In general, mass migration from Venezuela has contributed to political destabilization and the rise of anti-immigrant sentiment throughout Latin America.
The migration from Africa to Europe, which began in 2010, was caused by political conflicts on the continent, constant wars, mass impoverishment of the population, as well as natural factors such as climate change and food shortages in North and Sub-Saharan Africa. As a result, every year thousands of migrants try to cross the Mediterranean Sea to reach Europe, mainly Italy, Greece and Spain. Hundreds of thousands of migrants have created a social burden and caused political crises in EU countries. Currently, in European countries, there is an increase in support for far-right parties and a strengthening of border controls.
It is also worth mentioning the migration after the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1990s. Economic collapse and ethnic conflicts, as well as wars in some territories of the Union (Nagorno-Karabakh, Chechnya, Transnistria) led to the rapid disintegration of the country and forced millions of people to move from the post-Soviet countries to Russia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine and the Baltic states. As a result, while labor inflows have increased significantly, at the same time, this has created a strain on the labor and housing markets. It was during those times that Ukraine first felt the outflow of the population, which led to the intensification of the demographic crisis in the 1990s.
The migration from South Asia to the Persian Gulf (1970s to today) is considered the longest migration wave. Its cause was the emergence of economic opportunities in connection with the oil boom, as well as the mass poverty of the population of South Asia. As a result, millions of workers from India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and other South Asian countries migrated to the Persian Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar. For the countries of the Persian Gulf, this phenomenon caused some economic dependence on foreign labor, and also led to the emergence of social and legal problems, in particular due to unequal working conditions.
In turn, European countries responded differently to migration challenges, and their approaches had both positive and negative consequences. On the one hand, migrants help solve problems in the labor market and can contribute to economic growth. On the other hand, without proper integration, the level of crime, social tension, political crises and the division between different layers of society increases significantly.
For example, in Germany in 2015, Chancellor Angela Merkel announced the opening of borders to refugees from Syria and other war-torn countries. Germany then received more than 1 million migrants in a short period. Some regions of Germany have successfully integrated migrants into the workforce, especially in low-skilled industries. However, this required significant expenditure on educational programs, language training and social adaptation. In Germany, non-EU citizens have the opportunity to be employed in seasonal jobs, complying with the requirements defined in Directive 2014/36/EU. The procedure of employment of migrants in Germany takes place in several stages. Recognized refugees get the opportunity to get a job after 9 months of the protection procedure. Migrant workers must also apply for a work permit each time a job becomes available. Moreover, employment will be possible only after the approval of working conditions by the Federal Employment Agency. Although this procedure somewhat delays the process, it obviously stands in defense of the rights of the migrants themselves.
However, such a migration policy had serious social and political consequences for the country. The reception of a large number of refugees led to an increase in social tension, an increase in xenophobic sentiments and the rise of far-right parties, in particular the Alternative for Germany (AfD). The crisis has caused a split in politics, especially among EU countries, which have not been able to agree on a uniform approach to the reception of migrants.
Sweden has traditionally had one of the most liberal migration policies in Europe, accepting a large number of refugees, especially from Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan. By 2015, the country had the highest percentage of refugees per capita in Europe. In general, among the EU countries, Sweden is a model of integration policy, as it has been dealing with this issue since the 1970s and has a number of its own strategies. According to the Social Adaptation Program, migrants are involved in language learning, gain access to internships or have the opportunity to confirm the experience gained in their country, and also undergo a civic orientation course. All these measures provide an opportunity to integrate from the first day. In addition, the state provides assistance to cover living expenses.
However, the migration policy in Sweden also had its difficulties. Thus, despite the high level of social services, the integration of migrants in the labor market was slow. Some migrants could not find work due to lack of qualifications or language skills. Social tensions have increased, in particular due to the concentration of migrants in certain areas. This led to the creation of social enclaves where the crime rate increased. The liberal migration policy contributed to the rise of right-wing populist parties, in particular the Sweden Democrats, which used migration issues in their campaign. At the same time, it is worth noting that in both countries, a common feature in the migration policy is observed – limiting the access of migrants to highly qualified jobs.
But Hungary, in response to the migration crisis of 2015, resorted to radical measures, including the construction of border fences and the refusal to accept migrants under EU quotas. This approach has strengthened nationalist and anti-immigrant sentiments in the country, which has led to deepening divisions in society and strained relations with Brussels.
In turn, France resorted to tougher conditions in migration policy. This approach led to difficulties in the integration of migrants in the labor market, especially due to the high level of unemployment among young people in migrant communities. Tensions began to rise in the country due to cultural and religious differences. In some areas, migrant communities became isolated, which caused social unrest. The strengthening of the migration policy led to the rise in popularity of right-wing parties, in particular the National Front, which promised an even tougher approach to immigration.
Italy and Greece have also become one of the main entry points for migrants arriving via the Mediterranean. Despite the restrictive measures, they receive a large number of migrants. As a result, support for right-wing parties advocating restrictions on migration and closing borders has increased in both countries.
All these examples show that mass migration has serious consequences that can negatively affect the social and political situation, depending on how countries react to these processes.
What are the current measures in Ukraine
The government of Ukraine began to seriously address the demographic crisis only in the third year of the full-scale war. The development of a demographic strategy was already announced, the draft of which was presented by the Ministry of Social Policy in March. It is assumed that the government will approve this document by the end of September. The parliament also joined this process: at the end of July, a group of deputies from different factions of the Verkhovna Rada registered draft law No. 11424, which provides for the creation of the Ministry of Demography in Ukraine, which is proposed to be funded by grants from the European Union, foreign governments, and international organizations. An alternative proposal was put forward by the head of the social committee of the Verkhovna Rada, Galina Tretyakova, proposing to establish the National Demographic Agency, which would have a staff of 250 employees. The President of Ukraine also announced that a new Ministry of Unity will be created, which will deal with the return of Ukrainian refugees.
So, the authorities decided to step up and still solve the demographic problems through the return of refugees to Ukraine, the repatriation of the Ukrainian diaspora and the attraction of migrants from third countries. The main emphasis is placed on the first two directions, while the migration of foreigners is considered only as the “third stage”. However, logic shows that it can become the main one. It is obvious that the return of refugees directly depends on the improvement of the security situation in the country, which is still premature to talk about. In addition, Ukrainians have already adapted abroad, found a job, opened a business, got married, are educating their children there and do not want to return.
Mass repatriation of the diaspora looks even less likely: in 2020, President Volodymyr Zelenskyi already tried to attract the diaspora with soft loans, but this attempt did not have much success. That is why the “third stage” remains, for which it seems that Ukraine has been gradually preparing for the past year.
The demographic crisis in Ukraine is a ticking time bomb that threatens the country’s economic stability, social infrastructure, and future. Can migrants become a lifeline? On the one hand, they are able to fill gaps in the labor market, support economic development and relieve pressure on the pension system.
On the other hand, it is important to remember that immigration always causes great risks and certain social changes. The influx of migrants from other cultures can lead to the creation of closed ethnic enclaves where foreigners live by their own laws. This threatens to increase tension between the local population and migrants, especially in conditions of economic instability. Ukraine already has experience working with labor migrants, mainly from post-Soviet countries, but the situation with migrants from Asia or Africa can be much more complicated.
The country is currently on the path to European integration, so it does everything possible to ensure that its policy meets European norms and standards. And will it happen that Europe, tired of migration waves, will decide to use Ukraine as another shield against the constant influx of migrants in exchange for investments in the country’s economy? Are Ukrainians ready to accept people from other countries and cultures when they themselves face economic difficulties? European experience shows that xenophobia and prejudice can become a serious barrier on the way to the successful integration of migrants, and therefore aggravate an already difficult situation.
Instead of looking for a solution to the problem with the help of foreign migrants, the authorities should focus on how to create conditions for the return of our citizens to the Motherland, to support Ukrainian families and to stimulate the birth rate. After all, the primary task of every nation should be the protection of its own interests, and not the search for external solutions that can lead to unpredictable consequences.
Foreign migrants are not only a matter of filling jobs or solving the demographic crisis. This is a question of national identity. Bringing in a large number of foreigners will inevitably lead to intermarriage, which is a serious challenge to our cultural and national heritage, which we have defended and protected for so long.
Does the state not understand that instead of experimenting with importing the population, it should take care of its citizens? It is necessary to ensure that Ukrainians want to return home, have decent conditions for living and working here, give birth and raise children in their native country. This should be a priority! Without a national population recovery program aimed specifically at Ukrainians, no strategy for attracting foreigners will save us from demographic decline.
Foreign migrants may temporarily solve labor problems, but what will it turn our country into in the long run? Are we ready to sacrifice our national integrity, traditions and language in the name of short-term economic benefits? After all, there will be no Ukraine without Ukrainians, and this is not just a slogan, it is a reality.
So, Ukraine faces a difficult choice. The demographic crisis is a reality from which there is no escape. But is migration from underdeveloped countries the only solution? The time to act has come, because the demographic crisis is becoming a threat to the very existence of Ukraine. However, there is a great risk that the new citizens will not fill the gap in our country, but will create new challenges that we are unlikely to be able to cope with.
