How the Russian Federation works with the occupied territories and what Ukraine should do: Igor Tyshkevich

The occupied territories of Ukraine remain a zone of information silence and are often ignored in the official discourse. At the same time, processes are taking place in these territories that will determine the future of both the regions and the entire state. Russia is systematically working to make these territories part of its own space — mental, social, political. Ihar Tyshkevich, an analyst at the Ukrainian Institute of the Future, analyzed the policy of the Russian Federation regarding the “assimilation” of the occupied territories, its financial, personnel and propaganda tools, and also provided suggestions on how Ukraine should respond to this.

Igor Tishkevich emphasized: any policy requires resources. And therefore – the budget. He believes that by analyzing Russian finances, it is possible to draw important conclusions – in particular, about which areas the Kremlin will be ready to “give away” if the situation forces a quick freeze on the conflict.

He emphasized that after the occupation of part of the territories and the holding of “referendums”, the Russian Federation faced several tasks: to show its own population that “Russia is bringing order”, to create the same “picture” on the foreign front, to ensure the control of the local administration and to achieve the loyalty of the population – and in the future, assimilation.

In his opinion, the main element of maintaining the situation is not infrastructure, but rather people – more precisely, their demonstrative support for the Kremlin, which is presented as an argument in favor of the legitimacy of the occupation. That is why, as he emphasized, the key is not roads, but mechanisms that should ensure results in the field of manageability and loyalty.

Ihar Tyshkevich believes that the Russian Federation does not trust local elites, even in the territories occupied in 2014. From 2023, it will massively import its managers, who will replace local people in key positions. Formally, locals remain, but decision-making is controlled by the “visitors”. Some of these officials use work in the occupied territories as a career springboard – they get promoted after 4-5 months. Others stay for a long time – their level of competence is lower, but they are expected not to be professional, but to be devoted, isolated from the local environment and obedient. He emphasized that these cadres are often grateful to the Kremlin, because their previous place of residence was less comfortable than even the frontline regions.

The analyst emphasized that in the short term, the Russian Federation is implementing a population replacement policy. Pro-Ukrainian citizens left en masse. Those who remain are forced to obtain a Russian passport – first for concluding real estate deals, then for employment, and later at the level of Putin’s decree – as a requirement for the “legalization” of Ukrainian citizens on the territory of the Russian Federation by September 10. According to him, this is an ultimatum: either a passport or departure. He emphasized that the policy of coercion and stimulation of the return of refugees operates in parallel: on the one hand, it is a threat to nationalize abandoned property, on the other – promises of compensation for destroyed housing.

Ihar Tyshkevich believes that the Kremlin understands the riskiness of betting only on locals, and therefore implements the old imperial policy of “substitution”: it imports a loyal population from depressed regions of the Russian Federation. The new arrivals will be grateful for new housing, work and stability, and, as he emphasized, will perceive the return of territories to Ukraine as a personal threat. In Crimea, according to his estimates, up to 20% of the population has already been replaced.

Tyshkevich calls assimilation the most difficult and longest process. The task of the Russian Federation is to raise a new generation of “Russians”. This requires teachers, lecturers, librarians, and cultural workers. They should be brought, preferably for a long time. Regular events – holidays, street decoration, rituals – also play an important role. He believes that the main effect is given by time and constant repetition. He emphasized: all this is possible only if financial resources are available. The budget of the Russian Federation for 2025 provides for the financing of the occupied territories in several directions. In particular, the program “Recovery and socio-economic development” of the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions in the amount of 319.6 billion rubles ($3 billion) is in effect. There are also targeted transfers, financing of security forces, projects of ministries and financing through ANO (autonomous non-profit organizations).

Tyshkevich noted that more than 401 million dollars have been provided for the creation of a “picture of success” alone – this includes transport, medicine, sports, information systems, and content. He emphasized that, for example, Kherson region is not mentioned in the program of school buses, as well as in the program of “fast buses”. This indicates the special status of the region.

The analyst drew attention to the fact that a separate compensation program for destroyed property involves spending more than 21 billion rubles, of which 16 billion will be spent on Donetsk region. The program is designed for three years, which creates additional motivation for “return” and passporting. He emphasized the disproportionately small share of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions.

Ihar Tyshkevich separately focused on the system of additional payments – to managers, teachers, doctors, cultural workers. The total amount is at least 190 million dollars. Special emphasis is placed on the Luhansk and Kherson regions. He believes that this is explained by problems with loyalty to the “Russian world”. In terms of housing construction, he singled out three programs: for veterans, for the military, and for local authorities. All of them involve significant amounts – more than 1 billion rubles. The largest amount is provided for the Zaporizhzhia region. He emphasized: nothing has been allocated for Khersonsk – neither in 2025, nor in 2026, nor in 2027.

“Financing of Russian policy in the occupied territories takes place in several directions, fixed in the Budget of the Russian Federation for 2025:

• adopted by analogy with the “Crimean” state program “Restoration and socio-economic development of the Donetsk People’s Republic, Luhansk People’s Republic, Zaporizhzhia Region and Kherson Region”. Its total budget for 2025 is 319.6 billion Russian rubles or (at an average annual rate) about 3 billion dollars. By and large, this is precisely the creation of a “picture” — investments in construction, infrastructure, medical service facilities, etc.;

• targeted funding for projects in the interests of other departments. For example, part of the road construction is financed by the budget of the Ministry of Defense. Part of the work to restore the operation of ports is under the program “promotion of exports”;

• maintenance of the structures of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Investigative Committee, the FSB, as well as official housing for such categories – the budgets of the relevant departments. Most of the budgets of these departments are closed. But according to the data that was collected, it is planned to spend at least 140 million Russian rubles (about 14.7 million dollars) on providing officers with departmental housing. At the same time, it should be borne in mind that a significant part of the “square meters” is the housing of Ukrainians who left the occupied zone, which was withdrawn “into state income”. And by September, the size of this housing stock will increase multiple times. I will repeat once again: the figures for housing are minimal – something that the authors of the budget law (or the speakers at the speeches in the Duma) did not consider necessary to hide under the label “secret”;

• but there is another mechanism. More precisely, a set of such — 222 directions are prescribed separately, according to which interbudgetary transfers and subventions are provided for the Subjects of the Federation for the performance of tasks important for the central government. Occupied territories of Ukraine are behind 177 of them. Moreover, 32 (and only 11 — according to the state program mentioned above) — are aimed exclusively at the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhya and Kherson regions (their parts occupied by the Russian Federation) of Ukraine.” – noted the analyst.

Ihar Tyshkevich emphasized that it is worth starting with programs aimed at creating a visual image of changes in the occupied territories – this is how the Kremlin constructs a “peaceful life”. In his opinion, according to the program, the purchase of medicines and subventions to medical institutions are foreseen, but this is only part of the measures. In addition to medicine, funding also covers various sports structures, including the participation of regional national teams in competitions, the construction of sports halls, open fields, infrastructure for schools, as well as public transport and school buses.

He emphasized that this is where the first “but” arises: public transport is provided for the so-called LDNR, while the Kherson region is completely absent from the school bus program. The same, as he emphasized, applies to “ambulance” cars – again “without Khersons”. Ihar Tyshkevich noted that this is not a random exception, but part of a general pattern: similar distortions occur repeatedly. In total, he estimated, the costs of creating a “demonstrative result” for local residents are about $75 million equivalent.

He also drew attention to the program for the development of “rural areas”, which, according to him, demonstrates the absence of specific plans, but at the same time, the availability of funding. “500 million” was allocated to each of the regions, but without any details of what to do and where to do it.

Tyshkevich believes that someone should also tell about these successes, so regional information systems are being created with the funds of the federal budget. The total budget of this area is 1.688 billion Russian rubles. He emphasized that to this should be added approximately 1.15 billion grants and subventions to various ANO (autonomous non-profit organizations) in the “center” — for work in “new territories” and creation of “patriotic content.” In total, Russia plans to spend about 401 million US dollars in the equivalent of creating a picture of “successes” in peaceful life. But even this, he believes, is not enough for the Kremlin. The next step is the replacement of the population — a part must be squeezed out of the occupied territories, a part must be returned, and another part must be brought. And this is where, according to him, the most interesting begins.

Ihar Tyshkevich said that money remains the main argument in the fight for the population. He gave an example of the compensation program for property destroyed or damaged as a result of hostilities. To receive payments, you must have a Russian passport and contact the local authorities. More than 21 billion rubles, or 226 million US dollars, have been earmarked for these purposes. Of this amount, 16 billion are allocated to the Donetsk region. The program is designed for at least three years — costs are set for both 2026 and 2027. He emphasized that this is a powerful “stimulus” for those who hesitate to return. At the same time, Tyshkevych drew attention to the disproportionately small share of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions in the total volume of expenses — and promised to explain this further.

Next, as he explained, it is about attracting new residents – managers, teachers, propagandists, that is, those who have to “manage and educate”. For such staff, significant wage increases — comparable to the “northern coefficients” — are provided, as well as one-time “incrementary” payments, including support for young professionals.

Ihar Tyshkevich gave the exact figures:

– cultural workers — 620 million rubles;

– doctors in rural areas — 270 million;

– primary and secondary school teachers – 2.11 billion rubles. Plus separately – 294 million rubles of additional payments, as well as 16 million – for “lifting”;

– the largest amount – additional payments to all state employees – 14 billion rubles.

He emphasized that each region receives an amount that exceeds the average indicators for the regions of the Russian Federation. And that’s not all. The general package of incentives includes benefits for the payment of housing and communal services. New residents also receive them. For these purposes, the government of the Russian Federation allocates another 819 million rubles. In total, no less than 19 billion rubles – or 190 million US dollars – is allocated for additional payments and benefits.

Tyshkevych paid special attention to disproportions. The most funds for cultural workers are provided for Luhansk and Kherson regions, although these regions are not the most densely populated. He believes that the reason lies in ideological vulnerability: the “Russian peace” is probably the worst situation here. He also noted that in the Luhansk region, disproportionately large sums are aimed at stimulating the relocation of teachers.

“What’s in it for Ukraine? At a minimum, evaluate what programs the Russian Federation is conducting and respond to them in a timely manner:

• population replacement is a disturbing process. But, knowing who is being transported, it is possible to make the move at least psychologically uncomfortable for such “new residents”;

• Russia is engaged in schools – it is not necessary to repeat the policy mistakes regarding ORDLO. Mechanisms of real offer of educational and cultural content to our people under occupation are necessary;

• The Kremlin bribes with “compensations” — it makes sense to analyze social support for temporarily displaced persons and think about how to support these people. In particular, housing (not modular, of course);

• after all, the Russian Federation is trying to “reward” its soldiers with Ukrainian lands and real estate. No one is preventing Ukraine from thinking about the mechanisms of attracting foreign volunteers, who are currently helping to repel Russian aggression, to the resettlement of front-line (or occupied) territories.

Any other real (and not just media) projects that will strengthen the position of Ukraine and complicate the implementation of the Russian policy of control over the regions. If you don’t work now, tomorrow may be too late”, – summarized the analyst.