The future of Ukraine depends on the birth rate and the return of refugees: Oleksandr Gladun

After the war, Ukraine will face numerous challenges, among which the demographic crisis will be one of the most threatening. The loss of population due to the war, migration and low birth rates creates critical preconditions for further decline. Ukraine’s current demographic situation is extremely complex and will require both long-term strategies and immediate action to prevent catastrophic consequences.

One of the most serious aspects of the demographic crisis is the low birth rate, which significantly affects the natural reproduction of the population. According to Oleksandr Gladun, Deputy Director for Research at the Institute of Demography and Quality of Life Problems of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, for stable demographic growth, every 100 women should give birth to 210-220 children. However, this figure is unattainable not only for Ukraine, but also for most European countries, where demographic problems are also becoming more and more serious.

The problem of low fertility in Ukraine

Ukraine has been experiencing a demographic crisis for a long time, and the war has only worsened the situation. According to Oleksandr Gladun, even if the birth rate is raised to 160-180 children per 100 women, this will be a certain achievement, but the population will continue to decline. This situation can only slow down the demographic decline, but not stop it. Ukraine’s current birth rate is one of the lowest in the world, making this problem particularly acute for the country’s future.

“You know, I had an incident on the radio when I said that one woman gives birth to one and a half children, and the editor-in-chief intervened and asked: ‘What do you mean?’ Then my colleagues and I decided that it would be better to give the fertility rate for the general public as 1×100.

To have a simple natural reproduction of the population, a hundred women should give birth to about 220 children. Women have to give birth to 200 children (‘replace’ themselves and men), and another 20 are taken into account by mortality, because a girl born (the coefficient is calculated for the female generation) must live to the age of her mother and give birth to a child. Thus, according to our expert estimates, one woman gives birth to 0.7 children,” Gladun said.

According to the expert, the main reasons for the low birth rate are:

1. Socio-economic instability. War and economic difficulties affect families’ decisions about having children. Young couples postpone starting families because of fear of the future.
2. Migration. Millions of Ukrainians have travelled abroad because of the war, and many of them are young working-age people who could start families and have children in Ukraine.
3. Insufficient support for families. Despite certain government initiatives, conditions for raising children and starting a family remain insufficiently favourable. Young families often do not have access to the necessary social support, housing and medical services, which reduces their motivation to have children.

Life expectancy as another key factor

In addition to low birth rates, the demographic crisis in Ukraine is exacerbated by low life expectancy. According to data, life expectancy in Ukraine is one of the lowest among European countries. Gladun emphasises that an increase in life expectancy is an important factor that can affect the overall demographic picture. This requires:

1. Improvement of the medical system. An effective healthcare system can significantly increase life expectancy, in particular through disease prevention and the provision of quality medical care.
2. Promoting a healthy lifestyle. Active lifestyles, proper nutrition, and reducing the impact of bad habits can help extend life expectancy.
3. Access to quality medical care. In the regions of Ukraine, especially in rural areas, access to quality medical services is limited, which also affects life expectancy.

Migration and prospects for the return of Ukrainians

Another important aspect of the demographic situation in Ukraine is the issue of the return of citizens who left the country because of the war. Today, there are more than 6 million Ukrainians outside the country, and the future of the country largely depends on their return. Oleksandr Gladun emphasises that the return of Ukrainians can significantly contribute to the recovery of the country and its population. If at least half of these citizens return home, it will make a huge contribution to stabilising the demographic situation.

However, there are risks that a significant number of these people will decide to stay abroad due to better economic conditions and development opportunities. The uncertainty of return makes Ukraine’s demographic prospects even more unpredictable.

Ukraine’s black demographic statistics

The situation in Ukraine is now extremely critical. According to the United Nations, Ukraine ranks first in the world in terms of mortality and last in terms of birth rates. This indicates a deep demographic crisis that needs to be addressed immediately. Demographic statistics also show a high level of population ageing, which further complicates the situation.

Ways to address the demographic crisis

Large-scale and comprehensive measures are needed to overcome the demographic crisis. Oleksandr Gladun identifies several key areas that the state should focus on:

1. Developing state programmes to stimulate the birth rate. It is necessary to implement programmes that will support young families by providing them with housing, social guarantees and benefits for raising children. Such support should be available not only in large cities but also in rural areas.
2. Increase life expectancy. Improving the quality of medical services and healthcare should be a priority, as life expectancy in Ukraine is significantly lower than in most European countries.
3. Migration policy. The state should develop programmes to encourage the return of Ukrainians from abroad, providing them with jobs, decent living conditions and opportunities for development.
4. Social support for the elderly. In the context of an ageing population, it is necessary to create programmes to support elderly citizens that will help improve their quality of life and active participation in public life.

Thus, the demographic crisis is one of the biggest threats to Ukraine’s future. To address this problem, not only short-term measures are needed, but also comprehensive reforms in the areas of healthcare, social support and economic development. Increasing the birth rate, increasing life expectancy and encouraging the return of Ukrainians from abroad are key areas that can help the country overcome this challenge.