In the event of a cessation of the supply of missiles for Patriot systems, Ukrainian defense may be at risk: military expert
Air defense systems are a key element of Ukraine’s national security, especially in the face of constant aggression from the Russian Federation. Since the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the protection of critical infrastructure, civilian facilities and military bases has become one of the main priorities. Russia actively uses high-precision weapons, kamikaze drones and cruise missiles to launch strikes on the territory of Ukraine, which requires the Ukrainian side to have effective systems to neutralize these threats.
Against this background, international military support, in particular the supply of modern air defense systems, plays a decisive role. Ukraine received such systems as Patriot, NASAMS and SAMP/T, which have proven their effectiveness in the fight against Russian missiles. However, any change in the political course of the donor countries could jeopardize Ukraine’s ability to defend itself. A potential reduction in military aid from the United States in the event of a change in administration draws particular attention to this issue.
Possible risks for Ukrainian air defense
In his column for The Telegraph, military expert David Axe emphasizes attention on the critical situation that may arise in the event of the termination of the supply of missiles to the Patriot systems. These systems have become an important component of Ukrainian air defense, but their effectiveness depends on the constant supply of ammunition.
According to David Ax, Ukraine is using Patriot missiles almost as fast as they come. Since the export of missiles to this system is controlled by the US government, the decision of the Donald Trump administration not to issue the relevant licenses could cause a significant shortage and decrease in defense capabilities.
Another risk factor is that most of the candidates that Trump may include in his cabinet oppose further support for Ukraine. This raises the possibility of a reduction or complete cessation of the supply of American weapons systems.
According to the expert, Ukraine’s backup plan should not be based on other American systems, such as HAWK or NASAMS. He advises paying attention to European systems, in particular to SAMP/T, developed by the Franco-Italian consortium Eurosam. This system, under certain conditions, could replace the Patriot and bypass US export restrictions.
Ukraine has already received one SAMP/T battery, another one will arrive in the near future. However, to replace the Patriot, Ukraine will need at least five such systems, as well as additional batteries in case other American complexes need to be replaced. At the same time, the number of these systems in Europe is limited, and their production takes considerable time, the author emphasizes.
Patriot alternatives for Ukraine
Considering the risks, David Ax recommends that Ukraine look for alternatives to ensure its air defense. In his opinion, the backup plan should not be based on other US systems, such as HAWK or NASAMS, because they are also subject to US export restrictions. Instead, the author suggests focusing on European systems that can bypass American restrictions. One such alternative is SAMP/T, a system developed by the Franco-Italian consortium Eurosam.
Ukraine has already received one SAMP/T battery, and another is expected in the near future. However, as Aks emphasizes, to completely replace the Patriot, Ukraine will need at least five such systems, as well as additional batteries to replace other American systems. This requires significant financial resources, time and close cooperation with European countries.
Challenges of implementation of European systems
According to the expert, despite the prospects of the SAMP/T system, its mass implementation is accompanied by a number of challenges:
- Limited in Europe. European countries themselves are facing a shortage of modern air defense systems, as they are trying to strengthen their defense in the face of the threat from Russia.
- Long-term production. The production of new batteries requires considerable time, which may not meet the urgent needs of Ukraine.
- Logistics and personnel training. Mastering new systems requires time to train the Ukrainian military and adapt the infrastructure.
Ukraine should consider possible scenarios of the development of events and prepare for a potential reduction in aid from the United States. European systems, in particular SAMP/T, can be part of the solution, but this requires a comprehensive approach, including the involvement of international partners, increased cooperation with European manufacturers and the development of domestic defense industry capabilities. The creation of a stable and multi-level air defense system is a strategic necessity for preserving the sovereignty and security of Ukraine in the conditions of a long war.
