Increase in Ukrzaliznytsia’s tariffs: the path to stability or loss of business

The year 2024 became a landmark for Ukrzaliznytsia. After several years of a sharp decline in freight volumes caused by the war, the company was able to regain its position, showing growth of almost 18%. The total volume of transported goods increased to 175 million tons, which is 26.5 million tons more than in 2023.
Recovery through the sea corridor
The key driving force behind this jump was the opening of the maritime corridor in August 2023, which opened Ukrainian business to wider access to world markets. Export transportation, which became the basis of this growth, increased by 51.2% and reached 84.7 million tons. The share of exports in the total volume of cargo transportation increased to 48% (against 38% in 2023).
Infographic: IA “FACT”
The restoration of sea communication allowed to reorient a significant part of the goods that were previously exported by land routes. This affected the dynamics: 97.9 million tons of cargo were transported through sea ports (+28.2%), while only 64.3 million tons (-8.1%) were transported through land crossings.
Infographic: IA “FACT”
What exactly was transported?
The absolute leaders among export cargoes were:
- Cereals – 34.1 million tons (+50.2%);
- Iron ore – 33 million tons (+70%);
- Ferrous metals – 5.2 million tons (+13.7%).
A significant increase was also recorded in the transportation of mineral construction materials (2.4 times), cement (+36.5%), sunflower oil (+20.8%) and cake (+9.7%).
Infographic: IA “FACT”
However, domestic traffic declined by 5.5%, indicating that the domestic market continues to be under pressure from economic challenges.
Infographic: IA “FACT”
Rising tariffs: risks for business and the economy
Against the background of such growth, “Ukrzaliznytsia” announced its intention to index cargo tariffs by 37%. This decision caused criticism from the business side, because the additional financial burden can cost only enterprises of the mining and metallurgical complex in the amount of UAH 8-10 billion.
Experts warn: instead of the expected increase in revenues, the state carrier risks losing part of its cargo base. Some enterprises are already considering alternative methods of transportation, and some are reducing production altogether due to high logistics costs.
Why is it dangerous?
The refusal of business from railway services can worsen the financial results of Ukrzaliznytsia, which is already facing numerous challenges: wear and tear of the railcar fleet, infrastructure limitations, and the need to restore damaged facilities.
Business representatives insist: instead of raising tariffs, it is necessary to focus on increasing the efficiency of the carrier’s work. Optimizing costs, introducing modern digital solutions and investing in infrastructure development can be a more effective step than raising tariffs.
Tariff risks
The success of 2024 gave Ukrzaliznytsia a unique chance to strengthen its position. However, the future of the company depends on its ability to maintain a balance between the interests of the business and its own financial needs. After all, if tariffs grow faster than trust in the national carrier, Ukraine risks losing one of the key levers of economic recovery.