The rate of inflation in Ukraine in March 2025 increased to 1.5% compared to 0.8% in February and 1.2% in January. In annual terms, inflation reached 14.6%, which significantly exceeds the February rate of 13.4%. About this informs State Statistics Service.
Core inflation, which excludes short-term and seasonal factors, also rose to 1.4% in March, compared to 0.7% in February and 1.3% in January. Annually, core inflation rose to 12.4% compared to 12.0% a month earlier. In March last year, headline inflation was 0.5% and core inflation was 1.0%, showing a significant acceleration in price growth in 2025.
The actual inflation indicators exceeded the forecasts of the National Bank of Ukraine. At the beginning of the year, the NBU revised the annual inflation forecast for 2025 from 6.9% to 8.4%, and after the results of the first quarter – from 11.4% to 14.3%.
Such an increase in prices causes concern among economists and may affect the further steps of the National Bank in the framework of monetary policy aimed at curbing inflation in conditions of war and economic instability.
In new forecasts, the National Bank of Ukraine notes that after the end of temporary factors, in particular last year’s drought, inflation should gradually decrease in the second half of 2025. At the same time, the NBU admits that the issue of a timely increase in the discount rate remains open. Given the lag in the monetary transmission, which can last from 9 to 18 months, the impact of the rate change on consumer prices will be felt already after the temporary factors lose their relevance.
