The Kremlin is trying to influence Western discussions about allowing Ukraine to use long-range weapons to strike military targets on Russian territory. This shows that the Russian authorities are deeply concerned about the possible consequences of such attacks for their offensive operations in Ukraine. This is stated in reports Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
According to ISW analysts, even a few successful long-range Ukrainian strikes could significantly affect Russian logistics, forcing ammunition depots to move further from the front lines and beyond the reach of Western weapons. This will create additional difficulties for the supply of military resources to the frontline, complicating Russian operations near Ukraine.
The report recalls how in the summer of 2022, Ukrainian forces launched strikes from HIMARS systems on occupied territories, which forced Russian forces to disperse their ammunition depots, impairing the effectiveness of their logistics.
Analysts note that the Russian authorities are concerned that the distance of warehouses and important facilities from the front line may negatively affect their offensive actions. For this reason, the Kremlin is making significant efforts to prevent the West from granting Ukraine permission to use long-range weapons.
According to ISW, allowing Ukraine to strike military targets in Russia may have more benefits than some Western politicians believe, as the risk of Russian retaliation does not outweigh the potential benefits of such support. The Kremlin has been conducting covert operations against Western countries before the discussion of the use of Western weapons in Ukraine, and will likely continue to do so regardless of what the West decides.
Earlier, the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi emphasized that for the effective use of long-range weapons against military facilities in Russia, Ukraine needs permission from four countries – the United States, Great Britain, France and Germany. British Foreign Minister David Lammy added that a decision to lift restrictions on Ukraine could be made before the beginning of winter.
