Macron’s gambit: how Barnier’s appointment as prime minister saved France from the far right

On September 5, 2024, Michel Barnier became Prime Minister of France, succeeding Gabriel Attal, who held the position from January to September 2024. Barnier has 30 years of political experience: his track record includes work in the positions of Secretary of State for European Affairs, European Commissioner for Regional Policy, Minister of Foreign Affairs of France, Minister of Agriculture of France and others.

In addition, Barnier was the EU’s chief negotiator with the UK during the Brexit negotiations. The new French prime minister is known for his tenacity and diplomatic skills, which have earned him respect both in France and abroad. Barnier currently represents the center-right Republican Party.

It seems that the current president of France, Emmanuel Macron, is satisfied with the appointment of Michel Barnier as the prime minister, as this decision is in line with his strategic plans and the desire to stabilize the political situation in the country.

The president instructed the new prime minister to form a “unifying government at the service of the country and the French.” This appointment was the result of a series of consultations between the president and the main political forces: the former leaders of the country – center-right Nicolas Sarkozy and center-left Francois Hollande.

Macron’s unexpected multi-course

In a sense, the appointment of Michel Barnier as prime minister was a victory for Macron in his strategic game, which he began this summer by unexpectedly announcing the holding of early parliamentary elections in France. The entire election campaign was extremely turbulent. The dissolution of parliament and early elections were Macron’s response to the rout of his party by the far-right in the European Parliament elections. Le Pen and Bardell’s “National Union” received twice as many votes as Macron’s “Renaissance” party (31.4% versus 14.6%).

After this humiliating defeat by the far-right in the European elections, the French president took a risk, hoping to stop Le Pen’s party’s rise to power. However, such tactics could backfire — France was on the brink of a far-right government, and Macron risked remaining a “lame duck” for the rest of his presidential term.

In the summer of 2024, the world championships will be held in France The mass media stated such a course of events. The far-right under the leadership of Le Pen and Bardella showed significant results in the first round of parliamentary elections, gaining a third of the vote. This was an unprecedented historical event, as the far-right had never before achieved such success in the first round of parliamentary elections in France.

Although the right-wing populists showed considerable success and won the most votes in the first round of the parliamentary elections, they were only the third largest faction in the finals. The victory in the elections was won by the left-wing alliance “New Popular Front”, which was ahead of both the far-right and the centrists of President Macron. This led to the resignation of Prime Minister Attal.

It is interesting that at first the French left parties were in conflict with each other, but in the end they united to achieve a better result. It seems that this strategy worked: the leftists won a majority in the parliament and were able to nominate their candidate for the post of prime minister.

It is worth noting that in the parliament of the last convocation, Macron did not have a majority, but he had the largest faction, which allowed him to maintain a so-called minority government. This means that the agenda was determined by the largest faction, but without an absolute majority, it was forced to constantly enter into situational coalitions with other representatives of the parliament. In addition, Macron could use presidential decrees to resolve certain issues if he did not find enough votes in parliament. However, the implementation of this right called into question his legitimacy in the eyes of voters, which negatively affected his political image.

The dissolution of the parliament is a move against the far-right

Macron promised that there would be no far-right parties in power after him. Losing them would pose a serious threat to the country’s liberal tendencies and could nullify some of Macron’s achievements in the last years of his rule.

Dissolving the parliament, the “president of the rich” made a horse move, which allowed him to strengthen his position. The potential of the far-right was absorbed by the dispersed, but united for a certain period, the left. Thus, the French demonstrated their willingness to unite in the face of potential threats.

The president tried to form a majority in the Parliament with his supporters among the left. The process of forming the parliament was delayed for supposedly good reasons, because the Summer Olympics were held in Paris in the summer.

The only candidate who was sympathetic to both Macron and the left was Laurence Tubiana, a distinguished diplomat and scientist known for her efforts in climate policy. It played a key role in the negotiations for the 2015 Paris Agreement, which was an important step in the global fight against climate change.

So, in 2024, Tubiana was proposed as a candidate for the post of Prime Minister of France from the left bloc “New People’s Front”. Her candidacy was supported by socialists, environmentalists and communists, but the bloc’s largest party, Unconquered France, opposed her appointment.

What are the strengths and weaknesses of the left in France

The specificity of French politics, among other things, is the dispersion of the left. One of the reasons: each left-wing party believes that it is they who should claim the main power, while fundamental differences, including the issue of aid to Ukraine, remained, and they tried not to touch them in order to stabilize an already flawed political entity.

The coalition “New Popular Front” – that is the name of the current association of the French left – includes both moderate forces – the Socialist Party, which was once one of the two dominant ones, as well as environmentalists, i.e. the greens, as well as various left radicals – communists and Trotskyists, notorious left populists of the well-known pro-Moscow party “Unconquered France”, which is headed by Jean Luc Mélenchon.

It was the latter who accused Macron of unwillingness and inability to form a government and tendency toward authoritarian tendencies, and even called for the president’s impeachment. Of course, the current president could not be afraid of these insinuations, because two-thirds of the votes are required for impeachment. And moderate leaders spoke out against Mélenchon’s initiative to impeach Macron.

How Attal created the conditions for the arrival of his successor Barnier

Former Prime Minister Attal proposed to add to the broad coalition of right-centered republicans, who, together with the socialists, were the main political forces of France. In this case, Macron’s party, as the largest in such an association, could claim the appointment of the head of the government. He could be a compromise figure who would suit the French administration, while not being directly affiliated with the incumbent president’s party. It seems that the appointment of Michel Barnier has happened.

It can be summarized that with his strategic game, Macron defeated the far-right, strengthening his positions and demonstrating superior political aerobatics and outstanding diplomatic skills. It is important for Kyiv that Macron remains the president of France, as he clearly understands the need for further support to Ukraine and demonstrates the potential to strengthen security, military and defense policy.

Tatyana Morarash