The Poles state with sadness: if it were not for the war in Ukraine, Narendra Modi would not have visited them on his way to Kyiv. Just like Joe Biden, he probably wouldn’t have visited Poland twice if it weren’t for Russian aggression. Modi’s visit to Kyiv should be perceived as a kind of response to his July trip to Moscow, which caused criticism in the West. Responding to the dissatisfaction of the countries of Europe and the USA, the Prime Minister of India decided to go to Ukraine, because his country, the fourth largest country in the world after the USA, China and the European Union, seeks leadership in the countries of the South and at the same time tries to avoid being drawn into a new confrontation between the East ( Russia) and the West. With his visit to Kyiv, Modi is trying to refute accusations of bias and excessive attachment to Russia. His visit to Moscow in July was largely aimed at preventing Russia from viewing China, which India views as its main rival and competitor, as its most important ally.
India: From Non-Aligned Movement to Global Leadership
After independence, India sought to be an alternative to the two main blocs — the East (represented by the Soviet Union) and the West (represented by the US and its allies). During the Cold War, under Prime Ministers Jawaharlal Nehru (1947-64) and his daughter Indira Gandhi (1966-77 and 1980-84), India led the Non-Aligned Movement along with Yugoslavia, Indonesia, Egypt and Ghana. It included countries that did not want to join any of the blocs. Today, under the leadership of Narendra Modi, India seeks to play an even greater role on the world stage, not only as an alternative, but also as a leading world power that can be not only a “third way” for other countries, but at the same time a mentor and leader in the global politics
During the Cold War, despite efforts to maintain equal independence from both the West and the East, India was closer to the USSR because of its centralized economic model. After the fall of communism and the transition to a market economy, India has become one of the world’s leading economies. It is inferior only to the United States, China, Japan and Germany, having overtaken Great Britain, the former colonial metropolis. The new status made India closer to the West. However, the West is now more interested in India than the other way around. Western capitals see India as a valuable and, in fact, the only ally in the confrontation with China, which the United States perceives as the main adversary in the struggle for world domination. Despite the criticism Modi received for his visit to Putin in July, Western leaders have been reluctant to openly criticize him for continuing to work with Russia India’s importance is so great that Western leaders avoid criticizing Modi for his closeness to the Kremlin or for using sanctions , which the West imposed on Russia, India buys fuel and fertilizers from it at half the price, thereby helping Russia to get money for the war.
From persona non grata to an important figure in Indian politics
In the West, they preferred to forget about the former criticism of Modi for his role in the pogroms of Muslims in Gujarat in the early 2000s. In 2002, Gujarat became notorious for violent inter-religious conflicts that occurred during the rule of Narendra Modi, who was then the state’s prime minister. These events led to severe international criticism of his role in managing the conflict. Then Modi was recognized as persona non grata for Western countries. However, when Modi became the Prime Minister of India in 2014, his name was quickly removed from the blacklists, which once again proves his importance and success in the international arena. Modi remains prime minister, and his three consecutive election victories (albeit less emphatic than expected) reinforce his status as an important figure in Indian history alongside leaders such as Jawaharlal Nehru and Indira Gandhi.
Modi is a powerful diplomat. He pays a lot of attention to issues of mediation of international relations. Probably, after Jawaharlal Nehru, he most resorts to diplomatic trips and diplomatic intervention in the relations of countries. Modi went to Moscow to prevent a close alliance between Russia and China. Although India and Russia have signed nine agreements, these are mostly purely declarative documents. Indian diplomacy was not satisfied with the visit to the Kremlin. Modi is going to Kyiv to balance the previous step and prove his autonomy and flexibility in international issues.
It is unlikely that Modi will be able to become a mediator in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, or between Moscow and Western countries. Both sides do not need his participation in these negotiations. The trip to Kyiv is a way for Modi to emphasize that India is committed to maintaining its independence from both the East and the West. It would seem that India could rather focus on resolving issues with Bangladesh, where social unrest has occurred, than on a visit to Ukraine, which is far from India’s main concerns. Instead, Modi wants to show that India under his leadership is a globally oriented country that thinks and acts globally, not just within regional interests.
Signals from Russia and the West
Through his visit to Kyiv, Modi wants to show Russia that India does not take their bilateral relations as guaranteed or self-evident. A trip to Ukraine can be an attempt to confirm its independence in foreign policy and demonstrate that India has the right to review its international relations. As you know, Russia is trying to improve relations with Pakistan, India’s rival, and also has problems with the supply of weapons due to the war in Ukraine and international sanctions. This creates a need for India to rethink its dependence on Russian military supplies. It should be noted that Russia is the main supplier of military equipment and weapons to India, including fighter jets, tanks, air defense systems, missiles and other strategic weapons. Historically, India was largely dependent on Russian military equipment. Due to Russia’s limited ability to support military supplies, India may be forced to look for new arms suppliers, such as the United States, France, Israel or other countries, which could radically change the balance of power in the region.
So Modi’s visit to Kyiv can be seen as a diplomatic move aimed at India demonstrating its independence in foreign policy. It could also be a signal to Russia that India is ready to look for alternatives if Russia cannot provide stability and reliability in military cooperation.
Quixotic efforts in mediation between Ukraine and Russia
However, there are also opinions that Narendra Modi, who feels like a powerful leader who knows how to think and act globally, will try himself in a new role – a mediator in the peaceful settlement of the war in Ukraine. The West does not take such a scenario seriously because of India’s proximity to Russia. Also, given that Russia has shown no willingness to compromise, India’s attempts to mediate may appear little more than quixotic. New Delhi’s public confirmation of the initiative could signal a change in India’s political course from neutrality to a more active role in the conflict, although this has yet to be confirmed.
Whether Modi’s visit to Ukraine will have real significance or remain only a symbolic gesture will become clear only with time.
