Moody’s rating agency confirmed Ukraine’s pre-default credit rating at the Ca level, citing the lingering consequences of the war with Russia for the country’s economy and financial system, as well as uncertainty about possible peace talks with Moscow. About this informs Reuters.
“Growth prospects remain subdued due to challenging security conditions, labor shortages and attacks on energy infrastructure,” Moody’s noted, leaving a stable forecast for Ukraine.
On its website, the agency defines the “Ca” rating as belonging to the highly speculative category, with a high risk of default or being on the verge of it, although with possible prospects for partial recovery of the principal amount of the debt and interest.
Moody’s forecasts that Ukraine’s GDP growth will slow to 2.5% in 2025 from 2.9% in 2024, adding that it expects to maintain a “moderate” pace of economic growth in 2026 and 2027.
Meanwhile, the Fitch rating agency last week also confirmed Ukraine’s long-term sovereign credit rating in foreign currency at the level of “Limited Default”, given the ongoing diplomatic tension and the significant deterioration of the state’s financial condition.
As a reminder, Ukraine has officially confirmed that it will not make a payment in the amount of more than 665 million dollars for 2015 state derivatives, known as GDP warrants. This payment was scheduled for June 2, 2025, based on economic growth in 2023. Security holders expected a payout of $205.43 for every $1,000 of par value.
