Political barometer of war: what a new poll showed about Zaluzhny, Zelensky’s chances and Ukrainians’ expectations for the elections

Political sentiment in Ukraine is a new topic, even in the face of full-scale war. For the fourth year already, Ukrainian society has been living in the realities of war, and the issue of elections — presidential, parliamentary or local — appears regularly in the media, among experts, and in political headquarters. Although voting is legally impossible under martial law, citizens’ electoral sympathies are recorded, discussed, and changed. This June, a new sociological study was published in Ukraine, which allows to assess not only the ratings of political figures, but also the general public readiness to vote in conditions of war or a temporary truce. For the first time in a long time, this poll was published in full in the public space and became a landmark in understanding not only surnames, but also the general trends of political thinking of Ukrainians in 2025.

Sociologists have come out of the shadows: they talk openly about political attitudes

Social and Marketing Research Center SOCIS, Janus Institute for Strategic Research and Forecasting, as well as the Monthly Public Sentiment Barometer presented the results of the survey entitled “Social and political situation in Ukraine (June 2025)”. As part of this study, it was recorded how Ukrainians assess the prospects of ending the war, whether they are ready for elections, and which politicians they are ready to vote for.

It is important to emphasize that since the beginning of the full-scale invasion in Ukraine, there has been an unspoken rule: not to publish the results of polls regarding the electoral ratings of politicians and parties, so as not to create the impression that someone is preparing for elections in conditions of war. This rule was part of an internal political consensus designed to maintain unity and focus on military objectives.

This does not mean that sociological research was not conducted. They were regularly carried out by various structures, but the results were not published, but were available only to customers. From time to time, certain figures appeared in the format of the level of trust or distrust of public figures or branches of government, but without direct measurement of electoral ratings. The publication of a full-fledged electoral study on behalf of SOCIS, one of the authoritative sociological companies, signals a change of context — a gradual probing of the political field.

Ukrainians are not against elections, but only after certain conditions

As part of the study, sociologists asked Ukrainians the question: “If the negotiations end with a temporary cessation of hostilities and the end of martial law, should elections be held in Ukraine?” 57.6% of respondents answered “yes” to this question. 33.1% were in favor of postponing the elections for an indefinite period, another 4.3% believe that only local elections should be held.

For comparison: as early as March 2025, the Razumkov Center conducted its own poll, in which 66% of Ukrainians expressed their opposition to holding elections during the war. This indicates a change in attitudes: citizens do not oppose elections as such, but see them as possible only after the end of hostilities.

However, sociologists from SOCIS, “Janus” and “Barometer” specified in the question that it is not about the final victory, but about the temporary cessation of hostilities. It is in such conditions that almost 60% of respondents consider holding elections permissible. This means that the idea of ​​preparing for elections no longer looks marginal either to society or to part of the political environment.

Half of those polled are in favor of a compromise to end the war

Sociologists also asked: “To which scenario of the development of the situation in connection with the war are you more inclined?” 55.7% of respondents chose the option “search for a compromise solution involving the leaders of other countries in order to end the war”. Another 16.6% advocated the cessation of hostilities on the current front line. 12.8% — for the continuation of the war until the full restoration of the borders of 1991, 8.6% — to the line as of February 23, 2022.

Thus, the majority of respondents support precisely diplomatic or compromise ways to end the war. This is the first time in public discourse that it sounds so clearly and overwhelmingly. And this is probably not accidental: President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi also recently used the word “compromise” in an interview with Sky News, talking about a possible scenario for the end of the war – however, without detailing exactly what concessions are meant.

Candidate ratings: Zaluzhny is ahead of Zelenskyi

The most resonant part of the study was the ratings of possible presidential candidates. The leader in the rating is Valery Zaluzhnyi, the former commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the current ambassador of Ukraine to Great Britain. At the same time, Zaluzhnyi himself never declared his political intentions, even more so – about participating in the presidential elections. However, 30.9% of respondents are ready to vote for him.

The current president, Volodymyr Zelenskyi, has the support of 27.7%. In the case of the second round, Zaluzhny wins – 60.5% against 39.5% among those who have decided and will definitely participate in the elections.

The key point for the current president is that if the main candidates drop out of the campaign, the second choice for most respondents is again Zaluzhny – 18.1%, followed by Budanov – 11%, another candidate – 7.1%, and only 6.5% – Zelensky.

This shows that Zelensky’s electoral core is already formed, but has no potential for growth, while Zaluzhnyi has much wider reserves of support.

At the same time, it is worth paying attention to the dynamics compared to March 2025: Zelenskyi — plus 7%, Zaluzhnyi — minus 7%. This may mean that part of the electorate again focuses on the current head of state, perhaps as a result of the activation of his informational presence or the implementation of key decisions.

Political competition: new figures and limited prospects of the “old”

Among other potential candidates, Petro Poroshenko maintains a stable electoral base among voters who support the continuation of the war until final victory. Poroshenko himself voices the idea of ​​a complete transfer of the economy to military rails. But he has high competition from the “new military generation” — in particular, Kyril Budanov, Andriy Biletsky, and Roman Prokopenko. If you take any two of this trio, their combined support exceeds Poroshenko’s rating.

Dmytro Razumkov gathered the remnants of the electorate of the centrist direction and has a chance of a place in the first five candidates.

Yuriy Boyko lost support and actually fell out of the political field. Yulia Tymoshenko is apparently ending her public political career. Serhii Prytula failed to turn volunteer activity into political success, among other things, due to public questions about the financial transparency of his foundation. Oleksiy Goncharenko has not yet demonstrated scaling at the national level, and Vitaliy Klitschko remains a figure whose political weight is limited to Kyiv.

The given results should not be interpreted as final or permanent. They reflect public sentiment as of the end of June 2025. After the war, the balance of power, voters’ priorities, and the level of trust in individual actors can change radically. It is important for both society and political players to clearly understand this.

In order for the elections to become possible, a number of prerequisites must be fulfilled: the cessation of hostilities, the agreement of a political compromise, the abolition of martial law, the return of a full-fledged civilian administration, as well as the coordination of election procedures. However, the very fact of public readiness for elections is a new and important element in the internal Ukrainian situation.