The Alliance of Despair: How Sanctions and Isolation Brought Russia and North Korea Closer

The world media is actively discussing the cooperation between Russia and North Korea, which has intensified against the background of international sanctions and the economic difficulties of the DPRK. IA Fact, referring to The Wall Street Journal, already stated North Korea’s increase in arms production and ammunition supply to the Russian Federation to continue its aggression against Ukraine. The power of the Russian satellite industry is estimated at approximately 200 military plants.

“Ukrainian Pravda” with reference to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) informs on Russia’s transfer of MiG-29 and Su-27 fighters to North Korea in exchange for the deployment of North Korean troops to support the war in Ukraine. “Radio France Internationale” considers the prospects of a strategic partnership of these members of the “axis of evil”, assuming that this could lead to the creation of a full-fledged military alliance with an open supply of weapons and the involvement of the North Korean military in the Russian-Ukrainian war.

Events take the form of a full-scale attack on Western values. Initiated by Shoigu’s meeting in Pyongyang and cemented by the signing of a treaty in June, cooperation between North Korea and Russia signaled to the world a new stage in the division of global powers.

International Isolation and Weapons: How Sanctions Pushed North Korea to Cooperate with Russia

The heir to the Kim dynasty took a dramatic step, becoming embroiled in a carnage that shook the world. His decision to provide Russia with 11,000 troops and hundreds of tons of weapons to support its aggression against Ukraine symbolizes the dangerous grandiose ambitions of the leader of a police state for his own survival.

It is worth noting that the offer of cooperation from the Russian Federation came quite timely for the Kim regime. After all, UN sanctions led by the USA destroyed the economy of the rogue state, banning all its main exports – coal, textiles, iron and seafood, which seriously reduced foreign exchange earnings. North Korea has fallen into a severe economic crisis due to international sanctions imposed over its nuclear program. Restrictions on oil imports and a ban on citizens working abroad further complicated the situation, depriving the country of important resources and income.

In 2019, Kim Jong-un tried to negotiate with the US to lift sanctions that have hit North Korea’s economy hard. He wanted to sell coal and textiles again, but the US demanded the abandonment of nuclear weapons and international control. Pyongyang did not agree and the talks failed.

Sanctions remained, and the economic situation worsened even more. The COVID-19 pandemic drove another nail into the coffin of the rogue country: North Korea closed its borders, stopping trade even with its main partner, China. Food, fuel and medicine became even more scarce.

Kim’s position is based on cold calculation. Desperate for resources to support its fragile economy, Pyongyang sold itself to the Moscow regime, offering tons of weapons, soldiers and military assistance. For this, Kim receives oil, cash and, most importantly, access to modern military technologies.

North Korea received food, which helped the population to avoid starvation. The supply of oil and fuel made it possible to support the work of transport, factories and the army. Cash is used to support the economy, finance the army, and purchase essential goods.

North Korea has benefited the most from access to modern military technologies that optimize its defense capabilities, including its missile and nuclear programs. This increases the country’s military power and strengthens the Kim regime.

Sending weapons and troops to Russia has both benefits and serious risks for North Korea. Engaging in a long-range war is costly and drains resources, and sending munitions and equipment reduces North Korea’s stockpiles and leaves it less vulnerable to threats from South Korea and the United States. Additionally, deploying troops abroad could weaken North Korea’s defenses, and the return of combat-experienced troops could change the balance of power in the military and politics, threatening the stability of the Kim Jong-un regime.

Economic cooperation between North Korea and Russia is also weak. Trade with Russia accounts for less than 2% of North Korea’s foreign trade, while more than 90% of trade is dependent on China. Close cooperation with Russia may cause tension in relations with China, which creates additional risks.

The reaction of the West and possible scenarios of the development of events from the side of the international community

Despite the benefits, the alliance between North Korea and Russia has serious risks. Russian oil supplies and North Korea’s complete dependence on foreign resources cast doubt on its independence. Restrictions on trade with China, which has been the main partner of the DPRK, creates tension in relations between Pyongyang and Beijing.

The West is increasing diplomatic pressure. New sanctions, cooperation with South Korea and nuclear deterrence remain key challenges for the alliance. The introduction of new sanctions could exacerbate the crisis for both countries.

The US takes a tough stance on cooperation between Russia and North Korea. Washington has already imposed sanctions against key figures and organizations that facilitate this alliance in the areas of military cooperation and trade. The State Department calls for coordination with partners – South Korea, Japan and NATO – to increase pressure on the tandem of autocratic regimes.

States also use diplomatic channels to inform the international community about the risks of this alliance. If the situation worsens, Washington could increase its military presence in the region, for example by deploying additional missile defense systems in South Korea and Japan.

The EU supports the US position and condemns cooperation between Russia and North Korea. The European Council is considering strengthening sanctions against military enterprises in North Korea and limiting the export of technologies that can be used for military purposes.

The EU also wants to increase diplomatic pressure through the UN to pass new resolutions banning military cooperation with North Korea. At the same time, they are working with international partners to comply with existing sanctions.

For his part, the UN Secretary General condemned possible violations of Security Council resolutions that prohibit military cooperation with North Korea. The UN calls on the world to comply with sanctions and strengthen monitoring. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has expressed concern about cooperation between Russia and North Korea, calling it a potential threat to global stability. NATO is increasing support for its partners in the region, especially Japan and South Korea.

Seoul is very concerned about the cooperation between Russia and North Korea because it threatens the security of the Korean Peninsula. South Korea has imposed sanctions on companies and people who illegally supply weapons between autocratic regimes, is increasing cooperation with the US, conducting joint military exercises and modernizing defense systems, and is considering a more active role in US and EU initiatives to counter the alliance.

China plays a complex role in this complex scheme. Although it does not officially support military cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang, Beijing is interested in stability on the Korean Peninsula. It remains North Korea’s main, and therefore most influential, trading partner. China is trying to prevent North Korea from getting too close to Russia in order not to lose its influence. He can put economic pressure on Pyongyang to avoid a full-fledged military alliance between Russia and North Korea. In general, Beijing is cautious, but so far a serious escalation in relations with the DPRK is not expected.

How cooperation with Russia affects ordinary citizens and the elite of the rogue state

North Korea’s cooperation with Russia hardly changes the lives of ordinary people. The resources that the country receives – fuel, food, money – mostly go to the army and support of the authorities. Ordinary citizens continue to live in conditions of shortage of food, medicine and basic things.

Most of the benefits go to the elite, who strengthen their control and increase social inequality. The country’s economy remains weak due to sanctions, and aid from Russia cannot fix this.

Rather than helping the population, cooperation with Russia is helping the Kim Jong-un regime strengthen its power and military power, but it also creates new threats to stability in the region.

Does this alliance have long-term prospects?

Cooperation between North Korea and Russia is important to both countries as they are both under sanctions and isolated. This cooperation is mutually beneficial: North Korea receives resources, and Russia receives ammunition and equipment.

Although this partnership may have long-term prospects, it is limited by real conditions and geopolitical factors. Sanctions, diplomatic pressure and limited resources make the alliance unstable.

In the short term, such cooperation helps North Korea strengthen its military and economic spheres. Obtaining modern military technology from Russia allows them to modernize the army and threaten neighboring countries. For its part, Russia receives support, which prolongs its aggression against Ukraine.

However, cooperation between the two aggressors, which seems like a pragmatic alliance at the moment, may turn out to be a trap for both. Will these benefits become illusory when the depleted arsenals leave North Korea defenseless? Will it turn out that excessive dependence on Russian resources leads to even greater isolation, increasing economic difficulties and deepening the crisis? And do these countries understand that their alliance can become a catalyst for even tougher international pressure, threatening new sanctions and escalation of global confrontation?

As two isolated regimes attempt to build a new order, their ambition may prove too fragile in the face of the world’s challenges. After all, is it possible to build a long-term union on the foundation of instability, mutual fear and confrontation with the world?

Tetyana Viktorova