Yesterday the leading American edition of the Wall Street Journal reported on the transfer of short-range ballistic missiles by Iran to Russia. It was about several hundred deadly units. In response to this step, according to the source, the cooperation of high-ranking officials of the USA and Europe was intensified with the aim of introducing additional sanctions. Ukraine’s allies are ready to respond to missile deliveries. A spokesman for the US National Security Council said that the United States, its NATO partners and the G7 “are ready to provide a swift and severe response if Iran continues such transfers,” – about it Reuters reports.
Tehran-provided missiles provide Moscow with a powerful new military tool to continue its war against Ukraine. This step proves Iran’s disregard of Western warnings about the need to refrain from supplying Russia with weapons. The Pentagon and U.S. intelligence agencies have for months warned of such a possibility and threatened Iran over the potential move. So far, a US official has confirmed to the Wall Street Journal that the missiles “have been delivered”. The White House of the Biden administration said that a “tough response” awaits Tehran.
Arms exchange against the background of attacks on Ukraine
The details of Iran’s provision of missile weapons to Russia were analyzed by specialists of the Institute for the Study of War. They believe that the agreement is mutual. For the transferred ballistic missiles, Iran plans to strengthen its own aviation and expects to receive fourth-generation Su-35 fighters from Moscow. “Both sides are fighting for weapons, and by now Russia has increased its domestic production, but it desperately needs weapons from Iran and North Korea.” – speak British military analyst Sean Bell.
The transfer of the missiles took place against the background of intensive missile attack on Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure by Russia, which has already led to the death of dozens of civilians in recent days.
According to Western officials cited by the Wall Street Journal, the supply includes about 200 short-range missiles with a range of about 800 kilometers.
Russia is believed to have signed a contract with Iran in December to supply Fath-360 missile systems and other ballistic missiles produced by Iran’s state-run Aerospace Industries Organization, called Ababil.
Agency Reuters, which previously reported the transfer of ballistic missiles from Iran, suggested that it could be the Fath-360 system, which launches ballistic missiles with a maximum range of 120 kilometers and a warhead weighing 150 kilograms. Edition German wave, citing numerous confidential sources, reported at the beginning of August that dozens of Russian servicemen are undergoing training in Iran to use Fath-360 short-range ballistic missiles. One of the sources said at the time that the “only possible next” step after the training would be the actual delivery of missiles to Russia. And it will start in the near future.
Tehran traditionally refuses to provide military aid to Russia. It is known that at the end of August, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, that publications in the Western press about plans to transfer missiles to Russia are “false.” At the same time, the dynamics of relations between Moscow and Tehran prove that these statements are not trustworthy.
As you know, until now, Iran’s military support for Moscow has been limited to Shahed attack drones, which carry explosives and are easier to shoot down because they are slower than ballistic missiles. At one time, Iran cynically denied supplying these drones to Russia, but a few months later it said it had provided a small number before Moscow went to war against Ukraine in 2022.
About the types of lethal units
Aviation expert, leading researcher of NAU Valery Romanenko believes, that today one can only assume what types of missiles Iran can use to strengthen Russia’s military power. The expert believes that these will be missiles that Iran will not spare for Moscow, because Tehran will keep its long-range missile weapons for striking Israel. “All long-range missiles will go in this direction, and those that cannot reach Israel can be handed over to Russia.” – notes V. Romanenko.
He proposes to stop at five types of short- and medium-range missiles, which can theoretically be transferred to Russia. These are short-range missiles – Ababil and Fath-360 and medium-range missiles, which are representatives of the Fateh family, namely: Fateh-110, Zolfaghar and Dezful.
The newest development in Iran’s missile arsenal is the Ababil. This missile is equipped with a warhead of 45 kg, it can reach a range of up to 86 km. Fath-360 has a warhead weighing 150 kg and realizes a flight range of up to 120 km.
The aviation expert compares the Russian Iskander-M, which has a warhead weighing 480 kg and a range of up to 500 km, with Iranian missiles. He suggests considering Ababil and Fath-360 as analogues of the S-300 anti-aircraft missiles that Russia uses to strike ground targets.
“These missiles can be useful for the Russians to hit targets more precisely, instead of anti-aircraft missiles. Although the S-300 also flies on a ballistic trajectory, its accuracy often leaves much to be desired. The accuracy of the Ababil and Fath-360 is considered higher, with a circular deflection radius of less than 30 meters “, – says the already quoted aviation expert.
Fateh-110 has a warhead weighing 400-500 kg and a range of up to 300 km. Zolfaghar has greater range and accuracy: its warhead weighs 579 kg and has a range of 700 km. The most long-range missile is the Dezful. It can reach up to 1000 km and at the same time carry a warhead weighing 700 kg.
The Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar missiles are comparable in their characteristics to the Russian “Iskander-M”. At the same time, according to the expert, Zolfaghar can be more dangerous due to the specific design of the warhead, which has a smaller size, is able to separate at the terminal stage of the flight, which makes it difficult to intercept.
There is only limited information about the Dezful missile. The expert believes that the declared characteristics of Iranian missiles, including the Dezful, may be exaggerated and do not correspond to reality. They should be considered only as indicative data.
Geoffrey Lewis, an expert at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, who quoted by Reuters, explained that the Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar family of missiles are high-precision weapons.
“They are used to target things that are of high value and require precise damage,” Lewis said, adding that the 400 munitions could cause significant damage if used in Ukraine. And he added that the Russian bombings were “quite brutal” anyway.
Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Institute for Foreign Policy Studies, a think tank in Philadelphia, also confirmed Reuters, that the supply of Fateh-100 and Zolfaghar missiles from Iran will give Russia an even greater advantage on the battlefield. “They can be used to strike military targets at operational depth. Ballistic missiles are more difficult for Ukrainian air defense to intercept.” – said Lee.
A step towards contactless warfare?
The Russians, apparently, seek to obtain Iranian missiles because of problems with their own production. Iran, in turn, will not miss an opportunity to warm its hands on sales, as it did with the Shahed drones. After Moscow adjusted the production of its “geraniums”, it turned out that their cost is actually two to three times lower.
Russia is ready to buy missiles at any price from any authoritarian regimes due to its inability to provide a sufficient number of Iskanders to achieve its strategic goals of destroying Ukrainian infrastructure. Iran’s missiles are needed by Russia to maintain Ukrainian air defenses in constant tension and to strike at Ukraine’s economy.
According to Valery Romanenko, the enemy seeks to solve strategic tasks with the help of modern non-contact warfare. When hostilities on the front have a deterrent character, the main efforts are directed at long-range strikes on industrial facilities and control centers. Russia has not been able to achieve the desired results for 2.5 years and is now actively collecting missiles from all possible sources.
According to the expert, Iranian missiles can be used to attack front-line cities and reach almost as far as Poltava. Missiles of the Ababil type have a declared range of up to 86 km, which covers a number of large settlements. Fateh-360 missiles have a range of about 120 km. Thus, these missiles can strike Ukrainian cities, which are already constantly suffering from S-300 attacks.
