The first in terms of mortality and migration, the last in terms of birth rate: Ukraine is on the verge of a demographic catastrophe
They say that with the help of statistics you can prove anything, even the truth. Much that seems non-obvious because of its ambiguity and abstractness becomes an indisputable fact when confirmed by numbers. Declining demographics, which is one of the most painful problems, especially against the background of talk about lowering the mobilization age, is perceived as a real threat only when inexorable statistics are in front of one’s eyes.
Demographic indicators such as mortality, birth rates and migration losses provide a glimpse into the scale of the problem, which is often underestimated. This is especially relevant in the light of changes in the age structure of the population, which affect the country’s defense capability, the economy and the future development of society. The decrease in the share of young people, the increase in the number of elderly people and the lack of working population form challenges that require urgent attention and institutional solutions.
We turned to the statistics presented on the official website The World Factbook (World Book of Facts), which is supported by the US Central Intelligence Agency. For the curious: the site provides extensive data on the countries of the world, including geography, demographics, economies, governments, societies and other aspects. The information is intended for analysis and comparison of countries by key indicators.
The given data prove Ukraine’s anti-leadership in the three most important points for the country’s demography – mortality, birth rate, and migration.
The first in terms of mortality
Sounds pretty creepy. However, in 2024, Ukraine really topped the list of countries with the highest mortality rate. We have 18.6 deaths per 1000 people. This figure significantly exceeds the indicators of other countries, such as Lithuania (15.2) or Serbia (14.9), and clearly demonstrates the deep demographic challenges that our country is facing.
Infographic: IA “FACT”
The reasons for such a high death rate are easy to understand if you look at the context. The war, which has been going on for several years, is taking thousands of lives and destroying the health care system. The demographics of Ukraine’s elderly population also have an impact: an aging society increases the number of deaths, because many Ukrainians of retirement age need medical care, which is often lacking. Added to this are socio-economic problems — increasing levels of stress, difficulties in accessing quality food and medical services, as well as long-term labor migration, which leaves the country without a young and able-bodied part of the population.
Compared to Ukraine, other Central and Eastern European countries, particularly Lithuania and Latvia, also show a high mortality rate, although their demography is mostly explained by the aging of the population and declining birth rates. At the same time, Russia (14.0) and Belarus (13.3) have lower indicators, which may be due to somewhat better demographic and economic conditions.
Last in terms of birth rate
At the same time, Ukraine has one of the lowest birth rates in the world — 6.0 births per 1,000 people over the last year. Our country ranks last among the countries listed in the rating, and is inferior even to such states as Monaco (6.5) or Japan (6.9), which have been facing a demographic crisis for a long time. The infographic shows the last ten of the rating.
Infographic: IA “FACT”
Similar low indicators are observed in other countries with a developed economy or a specific social structure, such as South Korea (7.0) or Italy (7.1). However, the situation is unique for Ukraine: war, economic instability, lack of confidence in the future, and mass emigration exacerbate the crisis. Young families, in particular, often delay having children, and many potential parents move abroad, leaving the country with no prospects for population growth.
These figures are an alarming signal, because low birth rates combined with high mortality are creating the conditions for a demographic catastrophe. A similar situation is observed in other European countries, for example, in Spain or Greece, but Ukraine faces double pressure – a natural decline and the devastating consequences of the war.
The first in terms of migration
With a significant gap from other countries, Ukraine also ranks first in the level of migration — 36.5 people per 1,000 population. This figure is extremely high and unfortunately reflects the tragic reality of our country, where war, economic instability and social difficulties force millions of citizens to seek a safer and better standard of living abroad. The ongoing war is the main driving force behind this process, which is becoming more and more complex and irreversible.
Infographic: IA “FACT”
Mass emigration from Ukraine to European countries, Canada, the USA and other regions, as well as internal displacement of a large part of the population within the country, leave a deep mark on the socio-economic life of the state. It also creates additional challenges for the international aid and support needed to restore stability and development to the country after the end of the war.
Alarming coefficients of the demographic load
We will also add here the figures of the demographic burden for Ukraine, which testify to certain challenges that the country faces in the context of demography and economy. The overall coefficient for Ukraine is 48%. This means that for every 100 able-bodied people, there are about 48 people who are economically inactive (children or the elderly). The youth load factor looks even worse – 22.6%. The indicator indicates a demographic imbalance — the birth rate remains insufficient for stable reproduction of the population. At the same time, a quarter of the load falls on the elderly. This is a typical indicator for countries with an “aging” population. High mortality among the working age population, migration and low birth rates contribute to the fact that the proportion of elderly people is increasing. This puts additional pressure on the pension system, social benefits and medical infrastructure.
The potential support factor is quite low – 3.9. It shows that for one person aged 65+ there are only 3.9 able-bodied persons. This figure is lower than in countries with younger populations, and it signals significant demographic pressure. The pension system depends on the contributions of the working population, and a low support ratio can cause financial difficulties in maintaining it.
Consequently, population aging and low birth rates create a long-term demographic imbalance. A large proportion of elderly people and an insufficient number of able-bodied persons increase the burden on social systems. Ukraine needs policies that would stimulate the birth rate, create conditions for the return of migrants and support the working population. However, it is more important to create conditions in which Ukrainians will feel confident and safe and have the desire to plan their future in their native country.
