The National Bank significantly worsened the forecast for the growth of the Ukrainian economy
The National Bank of Ukraine significantly worsened its forecast for economic growth in 2025 — from the previously expected 3.1% to 2.1%.
“Fiscal stimulus provided by international financing continued to support economic growth in the first half of the year. However, growth was moderated by increased shelling and further destruction of production facilities, infrastructure and housing.” – said NBU Chairman Andriy Pyshny during a briefing on monetary policy.
He added that these factors also contributed to maintaining negative migration trends, which complicates the situation on the labor market. In addition, adverse weather conditions delayed the start of harvest and limited harvest expectations. This, together with the gradual exhaustion of the products of the previous season, led to a slowdown in the food industry and the transport sector, part of which production capacity remained idle.
Further pace of recovery, as noted by the NBU, will depend on the development of the military situation. The base scenario envisages a gradual return of the economy to a normal mode of operation with growth rates at the level of 2–3% in 2026–2027 (previously, the NBU predicted GDP growth for 2026 at 5%).
“At the same time, in case of rapid normalization of conditions, private investments and consumption will increase significantly and compensate for the effects of rapid fiscal consolidation, and GDP growth rates may reach 3-3.5%.” – explained the head of the NBU.
We will remind, according to the updated forecast of the NBU, inflation in Ukraine in 2025 is expected at the level of 9.7% (previously forecasted at 8.7%), in 2026 – 6.6% (previously 5%), and in 2027 – it will reach the target level of 5%.
