IA “FACT” already wrote, that Poland is rapidly moving from the category of “EU newcomers” to the club of the richest countries thanks to sustainable economic growth, the development of industry, the IT sector, and the active involvement of European funds and private investments. It is closing the gap with Western Europe, expanding exports, modernizing infrastructure and strengthening domestic demand, while addressing demographic challenges due to returning migrants and attracting Ukrainian workers.
The key to success was the effective use of more than 245 billion euros of EU aid, investment incentives for business and consistent industrial policy. If the trend continues, Poland will soon become a new economic benchmark for Central Europe.
Poland on the way to the leaders: a digital breakthrough or a challenge for a big leap?
Modern Poland is not only a country of new roads and cheap labor. This is a state that is building an “intellectual economy” — with digital documents, atomic ambitions, startups, and hi-tech. But is it enough to really compete with France, Germany or South Korea?
When last year the Polish government presented strategy “Digital Poland 2035”, many were surprised by the scale: 100 billion zlotys of investment, digital identification, AI and cyber security — all this is not in words, but in the budget. The goal of the program is to ensure that 5% of the country’s GDP comes from the digital sector.
Polish application mObywatel is a vivid analogue of the Ukrainian Diya. Like Diya, it brings essential government services and documents to a smartphone, allowing citizens to use a digital ID card, driver’s license, car registration, check fines and access other services without paperwork.
Just as Ukrainians can travel within the country only with Diya, open bank accounts and confirm their identity without a physical passport, Polish citizens can fully identify themselves and solve administrative issues online through mObywatel. Both projects are examples of successful digitalization of state services and modernization of the bureaucratic system.
Poland long ago became the “building site of the EU”. Freeways, bypass roads, tunnels — all this was built and is being built with money from European funds. But the railway is still lagging behind. Polish freight trains move twice as slowly as the EU average. And intermodal terminals, where rail and road transport are combined, are a real shortage. Experts admit it and are called to modernization.
Poland seeks to reduce dependence on coal. For this purpose, the launch of the first nuclear power plant with the support of the USA is being prepared. At the same time, it is actively developing wind and solar energy. However, the problem lies in old networks that cannot withstand the load. It is obvious that a “green breakthrough” can happen without updating the energy infrastructure to stop.
Poland in the Global Innovation Index-2024 sat down 40th place among 133 countries. For comparison: the Czech Republic and Lithuania – 34th, Ukraine – 55th. Poland has a strong position in digital communications and creative industries, but investment in science and development is not yet at the level of Switzerland or Scandinavia.
National accelerators support startups, and new “unicorns” (technological companies valued at more than $1 billion) are emerging in Poland. However, a real breakthrough requires more money, risky investments and long-term policies.
Polish economy: a rocket on the rise or a ball in the wind?
Poland today is an economic rocket on the rise. But any rocket has turbulence. Behind the glitter of growth are serious risks: debt, war, dependence on the German engine. And if you keep quiet about it, you can miss the moment when the rocket turns into a helium balloon.
This year, the debt of the Polish public sector will reach 59.8% of GDP. This is the highest indicator for the last decade. Money are going not only for roads or schools, but also for defense, which is growing to a record 4.7% of GDP.
The government assures that the situation is under control, because the average debt in the EU is even higher — more than 81% of GDP. But as noted Poland Insight, rising expenses and the risk of inflation they can in the future, to restrain the reduction of interest rates and increase the burden on the economy.
Poland is the nearest rear of Ukraine. And this is both an advantage and a risk. If the war escalates, Poland may find itself under pressure from several sides at once. Defense and refugee costs may increase, trade with Eastern European countries will suffer, and investors may be wary of investing near a war zone.
Analysts testify: there is already a war in a neighboring country has “secondary effects” on logistics, prices, labor market. And the experts add, that even small exacerbations can “scare off” strategic investors who are primarily looking for stability.
More than a quarter of all Polish exports go to Germany. It’s great when the latter grows. But when it slips, Poland also suffers. Yes, the decline of German production, especially in the auto sector, is already there hits by Polish suppliers.
This “economic attachment” is a risk that is rarely talked about. Poland wins when Germany is in form but does not have enough alternative markets. And attempts to turn exports towards the USA, Korea or the Middle East are only at the start.
According to the figures of Poland’s success, there is a tension that should not be underestimated. The debt is growing. Geopolitics is dangerous. And dependence on one economy is always a vulnerability. Poland has all the tools to act ahead of schedule. But you have to act now.
Economics does not like emotions. She’s like a car: she works when she’s not jumping at every turn
In Poland, the government is changing, and with it the style of managing the economy. But along with new faces in Warsaw came old questions: will it be possible to maintain stability? Will the new political era lead to another wave of populism? And how do businesses, investors and the Poles themselves react to this?
In 2023, Poland elected a new parliament. Former Prime Minister Donald Tusk again headed the government. But despite the victory of the pro-European coalition, a political “double center” remains in the country. President Andrzej Duda, a representative of the conservative PiS, retains the right of veto, which has repeatedly stopped or slowed government reforms. Political instability in Poland raises risks for the economy, in particular, in the field of fiscal policy.
Even in the status of the opposition, the “Law and Justice” party retains great influence. Her messages are emotional, loud, aimed at the electorate from smaller towns and villages. Populist calls to “protect the Poles from the dictates of Brussels” and “stop the sale of the state” are gaining popularity again, especially among older voters. If the Tusk government does not act confidently, right-wing radicals can return to power again — and not with reforms, but with revenge.
The new government promises to simplify the tax system. Reducing the tax burden on small businesses, simplifying medical contributions and reducing bureaucracy are discussed. But for now these are rather declarations. Entrepreneurs are waiting on specific projects, because it is still not clear how exactly the government will reduce fiscal pressure without losing budget revenues.
This year, Poland raised the minimum wage to 4,666 zlotys, extended vacations, and tightened control over labor contracts. This is reform with a human face. But business is not happy: employers complain about rising costs and difficulties in adapting to new regulations. It is obvious: without a dialogue between the state and business, there is only tension in the labor market will increase.
Predictability is the main thing for investors. If the country’s rules change, politics and personnel either slow down investment or bypass it. And Poland, despite its ambition, is no exception. Uncertainty in the relationship between the government and the president, the threat of far-right revenge, constant statements about “changes in everything” – all this confuses capital.
Today, Poland has every opportunity to become a leader in the region. But so that this chance does not turn into a lost opportunity, we need not just a new policy, but a stable and predictable one. This concerns primarily the rules of the game for business, taxes, human rights and guarantees for investors.
Poland is getting richer, but are the Poles getting richer?
Beneath the glossy facade of economic growth hides a complex reality: not everyone experiences this growth in the same way. New opportunities have appeared for someone. For others, hospital queues, home loans and prices outpacing wages.
This year, Poland’s GDP per capita at purchasing power parity is approximately $55,000, which is more than that of Hungary or Portugal. But does this figure reflect the real life of most citizens?
Formally a country sits 21st place in the world according to this indicator. However, the gap between the capital Warsaw Voivodeship and eastern regions such as Subcarpathian or Lublin remains impressive. In Warsaw, there are co-working spaces, startups, and the average income is over PLN 10,000. In small towns, there is minimal hope for social benefits.
Poland has one of the lowest income inequalities in Europe according to the Gini index (27.0), but this does not mean that everyone lives equally well. Consumer spending of households have grown over the past 3 years by almost 20%. But not everyone has salaries. A mortgage for a young family in Krakow or Poznan means 30 years of payments. And the monthly rent of an “odnushka” in the center of Warsaw is already 3,000 zlotys.
Poland still spends less than 7% of GDP on healthcare — much less than France or Germany. Before the pandemic, it was even worse: only 6.5%. The government promises to bring it up to 9% by 2027, but for now Polish doctors are quitting or going to Norway, and patients are looking for answers on Google. The medical care system is “overloaded, underfunded and is growing too slow.”
Polish children pass PISA tests well. But access to quality education is not the same everywhere. In rural schools, there is a shortage of teachers, low motivation, and outdated computers. And in the top gymnasiums in Warsaw, they are already preparing for MIT and Oxford. Higher education is free — formally. But in reality – tutors, hostels, paid courses. Those who have wealthy parents have a chance to succeed.
Property prices in Poland have almost doubled since 2019. Today, the Polish housing market is one of the most expensive in Central and Eastern Europe. Especially in cities where salary growth does not keep pace with prices per square meter. Young families either stay with their parents or are forced to move out, often on credit.
Poland is really getting rich. But the question is not whether the economy is growing, but who keeps up with it. Because economic indices are abstract. And reality is a medical card, a rent receipt and the dream of owning a home. And while the Polish government dreams of a figure of $60,000 GDP per capita, some citizens dream of simply reducing the balance to salary.
Poland at the finish line: breakthrough, stability or middle income trap?
So, Poland is no longer trailing behind, but it has not yet reached the leaders either. 2030 looks like the final stretch: either a breakthrough or a halfway stop. And this is what analysts say, who do not believe in pathos, but read the numbers.
In the new OECD forecast for Poland promise stable, but not explosive growth: 3.4% in 2025, slightly less in 2026. The main drivers are domestic consumption and money from Brussels. But the organization warns: without structural reforms and green investments, the pace will quickly blow away. It’s like a car without oil: it goes, but it won’t last long.
According to the World Bank, growth can to reach 3.7% already in 2025. But this is on the condition that Poland invests not only in concrete, but also in “brains”: education, digital skills, innovations. If not, the pace will slow to 2% already by 2028. Everything rests on the modernization of the economy. Without it, not a single euro financial injection will work. Experts consider three possible development scenarios.
The first is stable growth, or the so-called “Swedish way”. Poland is gradually reducing the backlog, investing in infrastructure and human capital, effectively using European funds. By 2030, GDP per capita exceeds $60,000 per PCS. But without breakthroughs. This is a scenario of moderate but stable growth of 3-4% every year.
The second is a breakthrough, or “Korean version”. Poland is massively attracting investors to technology parks, microchip factories, and startups. Uses green energy not as a liability, but as an opportunity. Becomes a center of innovation in Central and Eastern Europe. Growth accelerates to 5% per year. It is no longer Poland “catching up”, but Poland being imitated.
Finally, the third variant of the development of events is inhibition, or “golden swamp”. If reforms falter, politics remains populist, and the stock market does not develop, Poland falls into the middle-income trap. There is less money from the EU, migrants are leaving, the economy is growing by 1.5–2%. The country is not poor, but it is not promising either.
Demographics, climate commitments, uncertainty in the EU and NATO are among the challenges that can change everything. Poland is getting old. If you do not integrate migrants and stimulate the birth rate, the labor market will not have enough people. Hardly a country will have time reduce emissions by 55% by 2030. This means fines, reputational losses, loss of investors. Geopolitics is always nearby. A change of course in the USA or Germany — and the Polish strategy must adapt instantly.
…Poland has already shown that it is capable of building quickly, digitizing with quality and thinking strategically. But will she have the strength not just to move forward, but to run faster than others and not lose pace? The scenarios are known, the forecasts are encouraging. But will optimism become reality? Will the country have the determination to make difficult, sometimes unpopular decisions? Poland has a chance for a breakthrough, but will it be able to take advantage of it? The year 2030 will give the answer: will Poland become a real leader, or will it remain only a country that promised to become one.
Tetyana Viktorova
