The war and the demographic crisis in Ukraine: will the absurd proposals of the People’s Deputies overcome the problem

The continuation of hostilities in Ukraine has serious consequences for the demographic situation, because it leads to a significant decrease in the population due to heavy losses at the front and shelling of the civilian population, as well as a significant wave of emigration. Young people who can become parents leave the country in search of a safer place to live, which further reduces the birth rate.

Besides ending the war as soon as possible, one of the key issues is the return of Ukrainian refugees from Europe. Taking into account the experience of other countries that experienced long-term conflicts, it can be predicted that a part of the refugees will remain abroad, because they have already found a new home and a job there. However, to encourage citizens to return, significant efforts by the government are needed, including creating favorable living and working conditions, rebuilding infrastructure and ensuring decent livelihoods.

State bodies react to the situation in different ways: on the one hand, there are attempts to implement measures to support families that remain in the country, on the other hand, the implementation of opportunities to stabilize the demographic situation and facilitate the return of refugees suffers and requires special attention.

In the mass media and on official websites, there is almost no information about the attitude of our authorities to the problems related to the demographic situation in the country. However, recently People’s Deputy and Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Finance, Tax and Customs Policy Danylo Hetmantsev spoke about results of the KMIS study among Ukrainian immigrants abroad and comments on the demographic situation. He noted that the forecasts for the near future are quite alarming and were so until 2022, but a full-scale war has exacerbated them even more.

Hetmantsev emphasized that the biggest loss for Ukraine is people who will not return after the end of the war. It is not known when exactly the war will end, but it is predicted that the population of Ukraine may decrease to 25-30 million. Every month, the number of those who will not return increases by 100-150 thousand.

The deputy also emphasized that the situation is quite complicated: you can negotiate as much as you want on the attraction of investments and technologies, but without people who can implement them, it will not make sense. He noted that the demographic and structural problems of unemployment cannot be solved in 5 or 10 years. If you start working in this direction now, without waiting for the end of the war, the results will be visible only in the 2040s.

According to Hetmantsev, the following steps can solve the problem:

1. Effective stimulation of the birth rate and the creation of the necessary infrastructure for the development of children, including housing and work for young families, kindergartens, schools, a system of support for the development of personality and talents (out-of-school education, circles, sections).
2. Overcoming poverty and reducing the income gap with EU countries.
3. Reducing disparities in the availability and quality of service delivery in people-centred areas, especially in education (all levels) and health.

The Prime Minister of Ukraine, Denys Shmyhal, also believes that in order to solve the problem of the demographic crisis, every Ukrainian family should have at least three children. However, he did not take into account how realistic it is in modern conditions.

So, in the third year of the war, the authorities gradually began to voice the demographic problem. However, general phrases are expressed, as well as propositions that are not supported by anything.

In addition, some people’s deputies propose limiting access to contraceptives or call on young women to “give birth for the good of the state.” Thus, recently among the deputies of Ukraine, there was an acute question about the possibility of adopting a law in the second reading aimed at combating the low birth rate in Ukraine. According to this draft law, people over 30 years of age who do not have children are proposed to be prohibited from selling contraceptives. According to the draft law, contraceptives can be sold in pharmacies or other points of sale only upon presentation of relevant documents (person’s age (passport) and child’s birth certificate).

This draft law caused a significant response in society and among experts. Critics point out that such measures are excessive and violate human rights. They emphasize that the problem of low fertility cannot be solved by restricting access to contraception, because this will not affect the economic and social factors that are the main causes of the demographic crisis.

Along with this, People’s Deputies Maryana Bezugla and Yulia Klymenko expressed their positions regarding Ukrainians abroad who do not wish to register for military service. Yulia Klymenko said that Ukrainians who do not update their data and do not come to Ukraine will be declared wanted and criminal cases will be opened against them.

Maryana Bezugla called on such citizens to “hand in their passports”, that is, to renounce Ukrainian citizenship.

When asked if she is ready to lose 11 million citizens, the deputy asked: “Are they ours? They made their choice!”.

Klymenko replied that it was “ours”, because for 30 years they sent 18 billion dollars to Ukraine annually.

As you can see, the deputies are trying to find a solution to the demographic problem, but their proposals look so unprofessional and absurdly archaic that they cause citizens only indignation and disappointment. Instead of focusing on improving the economic situation and the health care system, creating proper conditions for the maintenance and upbringing of children, ensuring equal opportunities for women in the labor market and supporting young families at all stages of their lives, the authorities take measures that only deepen the problem New laws and government regulations force Ukrainians to stay abroad and discourage any desire to return home. People do not see any prospects for themselves in their Motherland, and this is terrible!

Demographic problems facing Ukraine are not new. Even in 2021, the country faced a significant worsening of the situation: there were 261 registered deaths for every 100 births. In 2022, there will be 263 registered deaths per 100 births, and in 2023 – already 265. Thus, the death rate remains consistently high, while the birth rate is falling.

However, these data do not take into account the territories that are under occupation, because we still do not know the exact number of dead and lost in such cities as Mariupil, Bakhmut, or in other settlements that have suffered significant destruction. One should also take into account the 1.2 million Ukrainians who are currently in the territory of the Russian Federation.

The continuation of the war will have catastrophic consequences for the demographic situation in Ukraine. The death toll will increase, the birth rate will decrease, and a large part of the population may remain abroad forever. This creates a vicious circle in which demographic changes depend on the duration of the war, and its duration depends on war factors and international support.

According to international media, the United Nations recognized Ukraine as one of the countries where the population is shrinking at the fastest rate in the world. The UN analytical report “Demographic processes” states that by 2050, the population of Ukraine may decrease to 35 million people.

The main reasons for this rapid decline are a low birth rate, a high death rate and a constant increase in the scale of migration. According to the UN, about a third of Ukrainians die before the age of 65, and more than half of these deaths could be prevented.

In addition, approximately 3 million Ukrainians work permanently outside the country, and this number is expected to only grow. High levels of poverty, difficulties with employment and decent wages are exacerbated by political, social and security factors that drive migration outflows. Almost half of Ukrainian migrants are engaged in unskilled labor, while having high qualifications obtained in Ukraine. Approximately one third of migrants are citizens under the age of 35.

To solve the demographic situation, UN experts recommend officially investing in human capital, in particular, through political measures with an emphasis on health care, education, poverty reduction, decent wages, social protection and environmental protection. It is also emphasized the need for a regular population census, as accurate data will allow the authorities to form a budget for relevant reforms. In this matter, it should be recalled that the last official population census in Ukraine was held in 2001, when the population was 48.2 million people.

It is these reasonable recommendations that our leaders and legislators should listen to, otherwise neither the people nor the country itself will survive.