Ukrainian refugees. When will they return home?
Approximately 3.3 million refugees may not return to Ukraine, which is 7% of GDP - the main conclusions of the demographic report of the Center for Economic Strategy.
A study by the Center for Economic Strategy (CES) shows that 5.6 to 6.7 million Ukrainians remain abroad, including people with different levels of education and professional skills. Only two thirds of them expressed their desire to return to Ukraine. For now, we highlight the key conclusions of the CES report:
Approximately 6 million Ukrainians remain abroad even now because of the Russian invasion. Depending on the optimistic or pessimistic scenario, from 1.3 to 3.3 million may remain there forever. These data are based on results sociological surveys, conducted by Info Sapiens in November–December 2022 and April–May 2023. The non-return of Ukrainians can seriously affect the state economy, leading to losses of 2.7% to 6.9% of GDP annually. Most of the refugees found refuge in Poland and Germany, and the majority of them are women aged 35-49 and children.
Who are these people and do they plan to return?
These are the main questions answered by the CES study. As of the end of 2023, between 5.6 and 6.7 million Ukrainians are abroad because of the war, including an estimated 1.3 million in Russia, many of whom were forcibly removed from their homes. Since the beginning of 2022, the number of people returning to Ukraine exceeded the number of those who, on the contrary, left, but this changed due to the shelling of the energy infrastructure of Ukraine by the aggressor state.
In October, 76,000 Ukrainians left and did not return, in November – 84,000, and in December – 55,000. The number continued to grow in the new year, reaching 140,000 in January and 120,000 in February. Compared to the end of 2022, at the end of 2023 there were 0.3–0.5 million more Ukrainians abroad due to the war. Germany became the main destination for Ukrainian refugees, ahead of Poland. As of March 2024, there were about 1.1 million Ukrainians in Germany, and 990,000 in Poland. Outside of Europe, the USA and Canada took in the most Ukrainians: about 280,000 in the USA and about 234,500 in Canada.
In November 2023, more than half of Ukrainian refugees were children. Women aged 35–49 accounted for 18% of the total number of refugees, and overall, women accounted for 83.4% of adult refugees. Only 17.3% of all respondents left with a husband or wife, and 13.3% left with minor children.
Most Ukrainian refugees lost most of their income after the Russian invasion began. Before the war, 27.8% of respondents had enough income for basic and expensive goods, but after the war, this figure decreased to 6%. The share of those who only had enough for food increased to 24.6%.
According to the results of the survey in May 2023, about 63% of Ukrainian refugees had higher or incomplete higher education, which is significantly higher than the average for Ukraine.
CES conducted a cluster analysis of groups of Ukrainian refugees, which led to their division into four main categories:
The first category, “Classic refugees” (25% of the total number), consists mainly of middle-aged women and children. They tend to stay in Poland and the Czech Republic, especially in big cities, choosing these countries because of their geographical proximity to Ukraine. These refugees show insufficient adaptation to life abroad, having limited knowledge of the language of the host country and rarely establishing relationships with the local population.
The second category, “Quasi labor migrants” (29%), are the most adapted to life abroad, usually having experience of staying outside of Ukraine. People from this category often have a high level of knowledge of the language of the host country and are actively engaged in employment abroad. They express the greatest satisfaction with life abroad and highly evaluate the quality of public services, have fewer problems and perceive the local population positively.
The third category, “Professionals” (29%), is characterized by a greater propensity for employment in accordance with their own or a related specialty. People from this group usually have comfortable living conditions in the host country because they have received more assistance compared to other groups. They choose the host country because of the presence of friends, language skills or good relations with local residents.
The fourth category, “People from the combat zone” (16%), is characterized by low adaptation to life abroad, but high readiness to take steps to adapt outside of Ukraine. These refugees have suffered the most losses due to the war and are highly motivated to find work abroad.
According to a survey conducted in the fall of 2024, about 62% of Ukrainian refugees expressed a desire to return to Ukraine when the situation allows. These are mostly elderly people who live in countries bordering Ukraine and have relatives in their native country. Another 14% of refugees plan to return within three months, while 6% have no intention of returning at all. Most of this category are residents of the eastern regions, which suffered the most from the war.
Compared to 2022, the attitudes of some Ukrainian refugees have changed: 8% are approaching the decision not to return, 24% plan to return, but later than before. 5% intend to return earlier than planned. 59% of Ukrainian respondents have not changed their plans.
Also, the Center for Economic Strategies (CES) identified three scenarios for the return of Ukrainians: optimistic, average and pessimistic. According to the first scenario, 3 million refugees will return to Ukraine, and 1.3 million will remain abroad; according to the second – 2.5 million and 2.3 million, respectively; according to the third – 2.1 million and 3.3 million will remain in Ukraine. Consequently, such a large number of migrants already strongly affects the demographic situation of Ukraine, causing an increasing shortage of workers, which leads to a global economic loss and social crisis in the country.