Economic growth of Ukraine in 2025 may decrease to 2%, compared to 3.2% in 2024. Such forecast provided in the January review of the World Bank. According to experts, the main reason for the slowdown is the continuation of active hostilities in the country. Despite this, global economic growth is estimated to be 2.7% in 2025 and 2026, maintaining the same level as in 2024.
According to the World Bank, in 2024, Ukraine’s GDP growth was 3.2%. The main challenges were the reduction of energy capacities and winter blackouts, which significantly affected industrial production and trade. However, even in such difficult conditions, the Ukrainian economy showed high resilience.
However, in case of stabilization of the situation and cessation of hostilities, a substantial recovery of the economy is expected. According to the forecast, in 2026, Ukrainian GDP can grow by 7%, which will be possible thanks to investments in the restoration of infrastructure and consumption.
The World Bank also notes the serious losses that the war has caused to Ukraine. In 2024, the conflict directly affected 41% of the country’s population, which emphasizes the scale of both human and economic consequences.
In the global dimension, the World Bank predicts the maintenance of economic growth rates at the level of 2.7% in 2025 and 2026. For developing countries, growth at the level of about 4% is expected. However, this indicator will be weaker than before the pandemic and, according to experts, insufficient to overcome poverty and achieve the long-term goals of sustainable development.
Despite the significant challenges facing the Ukrainian economy, the prospects for recovery remain realistic under the conditions of stabilization of the political and military situation.
