After the approval of the updated parameters of the state budget for the current year, according to preliminary estimates, the planned deficit of the state budget of Ukraine for 2026 will reach approximately 42 billion US dollars. About this reported head of the parliamentary budget committee, Roksolana Pidlas, made public the relevant information in her post on Facebook.
According to her, there is currently no reason to expect a decrease in the size of the deficit in the next budget period. Therefore, the need for external financing will remain significant — it will either be equal to the mentioned $42 billion, or even exceed this amount. The state expects to receive part of this amount from international partners. In particular, revenue from non-refundable loans provided by the Group of Seven countries within the framework of the ERA program is provided, as well as financial assistance from the European Union through the Ukraine Facility mechanism. In addition, Ukraine is counting on the participation of the International Monetary Fund.
At the same time, even taking into account these sources, part of the external financing needs for 2026 remain uncovered. According to estimates, it is about the amount of about 19 billion US dollars, which Ukraine cannot yet compensate with the existing mechanisms of international support.
As Pidlasa emphasized, in a situation where this year about 66% of all state budget expenditures are directed to support the defense sector, the search for additional sources of funding cannot remain exclusively an internal matter of the Ukrainian government or the European Commission. In her opinion, this task requires the involvement of a wider range of international actors and a review of approaches to financial aid in wartime conditions.
Separately, she drew attention to Ukraine’s cooperation with the International Monetary Fund, comparing it with the experience of other countries. As an example, Pidlasa gave Argentina, which in 2025 received financing from the IMF in the amount of 20 billion dollars, of which 12 billion were allocated without requirements to fulfill structural guidelines. At the same time, in order to receive 6.19 billion dollars, Ukraine had to undergo eight successful revisions of the current cooperation program.
As for future budget policy, Pidlasa noted that even if the active phase of hostilities ends by the end of 2025, defense spending will remain high in the years to come. To them will be added large-scale costs for the post-war reconstruction of the destroyed infrastructure and housing stock.
We will remind, according to the fourth Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA4) report prepared by World Bank experts, the total need for financing the reconstruction of Ukraine within ten years after the end of the war is estimated at 524 billion US dollars. The state will need this amount of resources for the restoration of critical infrastructure, destroyed social facilities, transport networks, as well as for the full reintegration of regions affected by military actions.
