The war unleashed by Russia against Ukraine became a defining moment for the entire world order. It created numerous threats not only for Ukraine, but also for the stability of the entire European continent. This conflict forced European countries to reconsider their approaches to security, economy and foreign policy. At the same time, Russia’s aggression significantly accelerated Ukraine’s integration into NATO and the European Union. In such a situation, leadership in the EU becomes one of the key factors that will determine the development of events. Poland’s presidency of the EU, which will begin on January 1, 2025, is an important chance for Ukraine, which allows us to count on additional support, deepening cooperation and progress on the way to EU membership.
At the same time, Ukraine and its partners face a number of serious challenges, including the need to preserve the unity of the West, overcome internal contradictions in the EU, and strengthen bilateral relations with key partner countries, such as Poland. My point of view on this matter expressed chairman of the board of the Foundation named after Stefana Batory, sociologist, Polish expert, publicist and political scientist Edwin Bendyk.
External risks and challenges
Edwin Bendyk emphasized that one of the main external risks for Ukraine today is the situation in the United States. The strategy of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi is aimed at persuading US President Joe Biden to leave a historical legacy in the form of Ukraine’s victory in the war. This concept, known as the “Biden Legacy”, should become the basis for supporting Ukraine in this critical period. At the same time, the key events will be after the elections in the USA until the swearing in of the new president. If Donald Trump wins the election, there is a significant risk of weakening American support for Ukraine.
Important changes are also taking place in the European Union — the formation of a new European Commission in December 2024. Despite general declarations of continued support for Ukraine, internal problems in key EU countries, such as France and Germany, complicate political maneuvering. Recent elections to the European Parliament have shown that pro-Russian forces are strengthening their positions, which may create additional public pressure on the need to end the war.
According to the expert, at the front, none of the parties currently has sufficient forces for a breakthrough, which necessitates the need for a political solution to the conflict. In order to achieve such a decision, the unanimity of the West, the continuation of military support to Ukraine, as well as the consent to the use of Western weapons on the territory of Russia is necessary. Only then can the strategic balance be changed in favor of Ukraine, which will force the Kremlin to reconsider its goals.
Polish-Ukrainian relations: paradoxes and perspectives
Despite significant support from Poland, relations between the two countries have recently been strained over historical issues such as the Volyn tragedy. The Ukrainian side did not expect that this issue would arise precisely in the midst of the war, when the future of the country is at stake. However, as Bendyk notes, these historical disagreements do not affect Poland’s military support for Ukraine. Solving these issues requires a political level of agreement to avoid the use of historical topics in domestic political processes, for example, during election campaigns in Poland.
Regarding Poland’s attitude to Ukraine’s accession to the EU, Edwin Bendyk emphasizes that strategically Poland fully supports EU expansion at the expense of Ukraine, although in the short term this process may cause some opposition due to economic risks.
European integration of Ukraine: challenges and prospects
Ukraine’s path to the EU is a long process that requires significant adaptation to the norms and standards of the European Union. In this context, Poland can become an important ally, because it has experience in successful integration, overcoming corruption and transformation of public administration. Like Poland at one time, Ukraine also faces the need to strengthen the transparency of government and the rule of law, which are key requirements of the EU.
As for joining NATO, the situation is somewhat different. Ukraine demonstrates the ability to adapt to Alliance standards, as well as unique combat experience. However, this issue requires a political decision on the part of NATO member countries.
Poland’s presidency of the EU: opportunities for Ukraine
During Poland’s EU presidency, it is important to start negotiations on the first cluster of demands, which includes the rule of law, government transparency and the fight against corruption. This will be a signal to Europe about Ukraine’s determination in the process of integration.
In addition, during Poland’s presidency of the EU, budget strategies of the Union for the next 7 years should be developed, which will determine the financial possibilities to support the enlargement process. The success of these initiatives will depend on the coherence of the actions of both Ukraine and Poland.
Poland’s role as the presiding country in the EU in the first half of 2025 is an important opportunity for Ukraine. Despite all the challenges, such as internal problems in the EU, changes in the US and risks related to war, joint efforts can ensure a successful start of integration processes. This global “window of opportunity” requires both strategic preparation and clear political will on both sides.
