Will Germany’s policy towards Ukrainian refugees change due to pressure from the opposition
In 2024, Germany faced serious challenges in the field of migration policy, which became the central topic of political and public discussions. Refugees and migrants, in particular from the countries of the Middle East and Ukraine, have significantly influenced the social and economic system of the country. In addition, Germany’s political landscape has begun to change under pressure from opposition parties demanding tougher migration rules. The demands of the far-right party “Alternative for Germany” (AfD), which after its success in the elections in Saxony and Thuringia, received the support of a large part of the population, which has a negative attitude to the further acceptance of migrants, became especially loud.
Challenges of Germany’s modern migration policy
The problem of migration in Germany has gained particular importance due to the constant increase in the number of asylum applications. By the end of 2023, there were more than 3.2 million refugees in the country, among whom a significant share is made up of citizens of Ukraine – more than a million people. This process was especially intensified against the background of the war in Ukraine, which forced many Ukrainians to seek temporary protection abroad.
In addition to Ukrainians, migrants from Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and other conflict regions live in Germany. More than 352,000 new asylum applications were submitted in 2023, and the government expects an additional 270,000 in 2024. Although a large proportion of these applications are rejected because they do not meet the criteria, many refugees remain in the country under temporary protection.
This flow of migrants is straining Germany’s social systems, as large numbers of people need housing, social assistance, health care and integration programs. As a result, the government is facing pressure from the opposition, which is demanding a review of the current policy.
Political pressure from the opposition and the far-right
Under the influence of pressure from opposition parties such as the CDU/CSU and the far-right AdN, Germany’s migration policy may undergo changes. AdN, which won significant support in the regional elections, is demanding radical measures such as tighter border controls and the deportation of people whose asylum applications have been rejected. AdN politicians claim that the current asylum policy is too soft and needs drastic changes.
Conservatives from the CDU/CSU also support tighter controls on migrants, proposing to limit access to social services for those who do not have a legal right to stay in the country. They are pushing for the return of refugees at the border and for tougher deportation procedures to avoid overburdening the welfare system.
Impact on Ukrainian refugees
Despite pressure from the opposition, Ukrainian refugees continue to receive temporary protection in Germany. However, possible changes in migration policy may affect their status in the future. Unlike refugees from other countries, Ukrainians receive a special status in the EU, which allows them to stay in the country without having to apply for asylum. However, rising asylum applications and pressure from the opposition may prompt the government to reconsider some aspects of this temporary protection.
Different positions of the government
Despite pressure from opposition parties, Germany’s coalition government, which includes representatives of the Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens and the Free Democratic Party (VDP), advocates compliance with the country’s international obligations to protect refugees. Liberal parties emphasize the importance of respecting basic human rights and providing protection for those in need. They oppose the radical measures proposed by AdN, considering them a violation of international law and humanitarian principles.
The Greens and SPD believe that Germany should remain open to those fleeing war and persecution, and propose effective integration programs for migrants. At the same time, they recognize the need to strengthen border controls, but advocate that these measures be balanced and do not violate human rights.
The growing influence of the far-right and conservatives on the political situation in Germany may lead to tougher measures in the field of migration. However, the government’s final decisions will depend on how much pressure from the opposition will affect the balance of power in the coalition. If the government makes concessions to the opposition, it could lead to tougher rules on asylum and the deportation of migrants.
It is important to note that discussions, in particular, about Ukrainians, have been going on for a long time. Germany has repeatedly made statements about changes in the conditions of stay for citizens of Ukraine. Among the latter: changes in employment conditions, reduction of payments and a new system of redistribution of Ukrainian refugees, which provides for a “fixed reception regime” and distribution of Ukrainians to other countries. However, whether Germany is ready for radical changes in its migration policy will become clear only after the debate at the government level is over.
