The issue of migration has long become one of the most sensitive topics in US domestic politics. Since the beginning of the second presidential term of Donald Trump, the administration of the White House has consistently implemented a tougher line in the field of immigration policy. New guidance issued by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officials to its officers opens a new phase in the practice of detaining refugees and migrants. This twist not only changes the rules of stay for migrants from Latin America or the Middle East, but also potentially creates risks for Ukrainian refugees who are in the US on conditional or temporary status.
Changing guidelines: more delays, fewer legal barriers
As it became known from the leak of the internal letter, which was at the disposal of the British publication The Guardian, ICE officials were ordered to increase the number of arrests — even without a warrant. The new guidelines include a requirement to “exceed expectations” and use “maximum effort” to meet quotas. Special emphasis is placed on the so-called “collateral arrests” — that is, the detention of those persons who happened to be near the main target of the operation.
This means that anyone—a relative, a neighbor, or even a bystander—can be detained if they do not have the proper immigration status or simply fail to quickly prove their legality. Importantly, the presence or absence of a criminal record is no longer the deciding factor. Previously, such people were usually not touched without specific reasons, but now the rules have changed.
Geopolitics of deportations: the US is looking for new “spare” countries
Another component of the new strategy was the intensification of diplomatic efforts to conclude agreements with third countries willing to accept deportees from the United States. The Trump administration has reportedly approached Serbia and other Balkan states with an offer to take in some of the migrants the US is expelling from its territory. Thus, Washington is trying to create alternative routes for the removal of unwanted persons without delaying the procedures due to the refusal of the countries of origin to accept them back.
This is a practical extension of the “transit country” policy, an idea that originated under the previous administration, when the United States tried to make deals with Central American countries to accept refugees instead of the United States. At the same time, it may indicate the White House’s intention to create a kind of regional “migration buffer” system — without direct involvement in accommodation or integration.
Cancellation of temporary protection: a blow to hundreds of thousands of people
In parallel with the expansion of detention practices, the US administration canceled the temporary legal status of approximately 530,000 citizens of Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela. This decision paves the way for mass deportations, as these individuals, although legally in the US, have lost their protections and can now be deported at any time.
This precedent is an important signal for other groups that have temporary or conditional status, including Ukrainians. So far, Ukrainian refugees have a separate temporary status (through the Uniting for Ukraine program or a humanitarian password), but the legal nature of this protection remains weak. Any political decision can quickly change the conditions of their stay.
Consequences for Ukrainian refugees
ICE’s new policy, which aims to increase surveillance and expand the powers of officers, creates an environment of legal uncertainty for anyone who is in the US without a permanent green card or citizenship. Ukrainians who arrived in the US after 2022 and received temporary status are currently protected from deportation only under the terms of an executive order, which can be reviewed by the administration at any time.
Because collateral arrests are now legalized, this means that even people without suspicion of a crime can find themselves at the center of an immigration inspection. If a person does not have documents with him or his status has already expired, detention becomes a real risk.
Ukrainians who have not had time to renew their status or are in the gray zone of legalization — for example, waiting for a petition or appeal to be considered — show particular vulnerability. For them, even domestic contact with ICE (for example, while visiting a relative or at work) can result in detention.
Ukrainian communities that have formed in the US over the past three years are already feeling the effects of the changes: the number of appeals to lawyers is increasing, people are avoiding trips by public transport or visits to state institutions. Rumors and disturbing stories of detention “without reason” are spreading – which only adds to the atmosphere of fear.
Against this background, volunteer organizations are becoming more active, providing instructions on how to behave when contacting ICE, teaching how to keep copies of documents, and explaining the algorithm of actions in the event of the detention of a loved one.
The sharp reversal of US immigration policy signals a new phase, where the main emphasis is not on humanitarian support, but on the demonstration of control. Ukrainians, who only yesterday felt relatively safe, now find themselves at risk — not because of crimes or violations, but because of a change in the political course. In this situation, it is critical to renew your status in a timely manner, to keep in touch with lawyers and to be informed about all the new rules that can dramatically affect their future.
