Without Ukraine and Taiwan: five scenarios of Trump’s rule that will transform the world in 2025 have been named
As analysts of the publication note Financial Times, during his four-year term, Trump will make decisions in the context of the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war. They singled out five main scenarios that will determine his approach to Ukraine, Russia, China, Taiwan, the European Union and other countries. On January 20, 2025, Donald Trump will be inaugurated as the 47th President of the United States. On the same day, the World Economic Forum will begin in Davos. Analysts point out that these events demonstrate opposite approaches: if Trump advocates the policy of “America first” and the introduction of tariffs, the forum in Davos is focused on globalization and international cooperation. So, what scenarios of development of events are foreseen.
The first scenario: a new major government deal
This option involves an agreement between the US, Russia and China, according to which the world will be divided into spheres of influence. The US will have unlimited freedom of action in North and Central America, while Russia and China will gain control over their regions. Ukraine, under this scenario, will be forced to agree to a peace agreement without security guarantees, and Taiwan will remain without US support. Sanctions against Russia will be eased, and beneficial trade agreements will be concluded with China. Tesla, for example, can get special conditions in China. This approach puts US allies in Europe and Asia in a precarious position, forcing them to rely on their own forces for defense.
Second scenario: accidental war
Under this scenario, Ukraine concludes a temporary ceasefire agreement, but the situation remains tense. Meanwhile, Russia, China or North Korea can initiate local conflicts in Asia or Europe, which will provoke a pushback from democratic countries. This will eventually involve the US in hostilities, similar to the events of the two world wars in the 20th century. European countries will prepare for the worst, and public sentiment in the EU will favor the rise of populists.
The third scenario: anarchy in a leaderless world
In this case, the US is starting global trade wars, but neither country is showing real leadership. The UN deals only with minor conflicts, without affecting global problems. Against the backdrop of worsening living standards, riots begin in countries such as Sudan, Myanmar and Haiti. The number of refugees is increasing, and populist parties are gaining popularity in various countries of the world. This scenario leaves Ukraine and other conflict regions without the attention of international players.
The fourth scenario: globalization without America
The US focuses exclusively on its own economy, leaving the rest of the world to solve its own problems. Faced with new challenges, the European Union is starting to cooperate with China, particularly in the field of green technologies. China, in turn, deters Russia from attacking Europe. In this scenario, the war in Ukraine does not appear, and the international order changes without the active participation of the United States.
Scenario Five: America First succeeds
This scenario presupposes the success of the “America First” policy. The US is reasserting its global power, while Europe and Japan are building up their defenses, enough to deter aggression from Russia and China. China is facing an economic crisis, the regime in Iran has been overthrown, and Trump’s opponents are being repressed. This scenario may prove to be the best for the US, but it will present significant challenges for other countries.
Analysts suggest that in reality Trump’s policy will be a combination of several scenarios, depending on the situation in the world. They also warn that global politics will be affected by random events that cannot be predicted.
