Global water crisis could reduce global food production by 50%

More than half of the world’s food production could be at risk over the next quarter century due to the water crisis. If urgent action is not taken to conserve water resources and protect ecosystems, the situation will worsen.
According to a report by the Global Commission on the Economics of Water released today, half of the world’s population is already facing water shortages, and this will worsen as climate change worsens.
Analysts predict that by the end of the decade, demand for fresh water will exceed supply by 40% due to ‘unprecedented stress’ on water supply systems. The Commission found that governments and experts have significantly underestimated the amount of water needed for a decent human life, which is about 4,000 litres per day. In most regions, this volume cannot be provided locally, so people depend on external supplies of life-giving moisture.
Interdependence of the world’s countries through ‘atmospheric rivers’
Some countries benefit more from ‘green water’ – soil moisture – than from ‘blue water’ from reservoirs. The report shows that water moves around the world in ‘atmospheric rivers’ that transport moisture between regions.
Roughly half of the world’s precipitation over land comes from healthy vegetation, which evaporates water back into the atmosphere, creating clouds. These clouds then move with the wind, causing rain in other regions. Such systems are called ‘atmospheric rivers’.
China and Russia get a lot of their rainfall from atmospheric rivers, which bring water from neighbouring regions. India and Brazil, on the other hand, are major exporters of green water, maintaining the flow of water to other regions.
Between 40% and 60% of fresh water in the form of precipitation is formed as a result of interaction with neighbouring lands. This means that healthy ecosystems in one country can have a significant impact on rainfall in neighbouring regions.
These interdependencies underscore the importance of protecting natural ecosystems and managing water resources wisely.
According to the director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, the Chinese economy depends on sustainable forest management in Ukraine, Kazakhstan and the Baltic region. This also applies to Brazil, which supplies fresh water to Argentina. He stressed that humanity must use fresh water as a global commons.
Water is the main victim of the climate crisis and irresponsible industrial use
In order to assess the state of global hydrological systems and propose ways to manage them, the Global Commission on Water Economics was established in the Netherlands in 2022.
The Commission’s findings show that water is the main victim of the climate crisis. Climate change manifests itself through droughts, floods, heat waves and fires. Every 1°C increase in global temperature adds 7% of moisture to the atmosphere, which intensifies the hydrological cycle. The latter is also disrupted by deforestation and the draining of wetlands.
A blessing in disguise: It may sound paradoxical, but government subsidies are distorting the world’s water supply systems. Each year, more than $700 billion in subsidies are directed to agriculture, much of it misused. This encourages farmers to use more water than is needed for irrigation.
Industry also benefits from this – 4/5 of the wastewater used by industrial enterprises is not treated. This leads to pollution and inefficient use of water resources.
Professor of Economics at University College London and co-chair of the commission stressed that loans from state-owned banks to developing countries should be conditional on water sector reforms. This could include improving water conservation and efficiency or direct investment in water-intensive industries. It is important that profits are reinvested in productive activities such as research and development related to water issues.
Water and gender issues
It is worth paying attention to the impact of the water crisis on the safety of women and girls. For example, the mayor of Freetown in Sierra Leone noted that most cases of violence against women occur when they are collecting water. This problem is also linked to child mortality, gender parity, the burden of water collection and food security. All of these issues must be addressed in a comprehensive manner to ensure equitable access to water and protect the rights of vulnerable groups.
Key findings from the Global Commission on the Water Economy report
The world is facing a water crisis
More than 2 billion people in the world do not have access to safe drinking water, and 3.6 billion people, almost half of the world’s population, do not have access to safe sanitation. About 1,000 children die every day without access to safe water!
It is expected that in the coming years, the demand for fresh water will exceed its supply by 40%. This crisis is getting worse, and if no action is taken, water problems will reduce approximately 8% of global GDP by 2050, and poor countries will face a loss of 15%.
More than half of the world’s food production comes from areas with unstable water availability. There is no coordinated global effort to address this crisis. Despite the interconnectedness of global water systems, there are no global water governance structures. The UN has held only one conference on water in the last half-century, and only last month appointed a special envoy for water.
This situation underscores the need for global cooperation and reforms in the water sector to ensure access to safe water and reduce the negative impacts on the economy and the environment.
Climate change exacerbates water scarcity
The climate crisis is affecting the world’s hydrological systems, causing serious disruption or even collapse in some regions. The effects of extreme weather include drought in the Amazon, flooding in Europe and Asia, and melting glaciers causing floods and droughts downstream.
Excessive human use of water is also exacerbating the situation, especially by draining peatlands and bogs, which, as they lose moisture, release carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, exacerbating global warming. These problems are only exacerbated by human activity, which requires immediate measures to preserve natural ecosystems and effectively manage water resources.
Water is artificially cheap for some and too expensive for others
Subsidies for agriculture around the world often lead to unforeseen problems with water resources. Farmers receive economic incentives to over-irrigate their fields or use water inefficiently. In many countries, industry also receives subsidies for water use, or pollution issues are ignored. At the same time, poor people in developing countries are often forced to pay high prices for water or use unsafe sources.
Real water prices need to be established that eliminate harmful subsidies while protecting the poor. Effective water management and access to safe drinking water for all should be a priority for governments.
Water is a common good
Water is vital for all of humanity, but its importance is often underestimated. The authors of the report call on everyone to change the way we think about water, viewing it not as an infinitely renewable resource but as a global commons. This includes the creation of a global water treaty between governments to protect water sources and the introduction of a ‘circular economy’ for water, where it is reused and cleaned of pollution.
Developing countries should have access to funding to preserve natural ecosystems, which are a key part of the hydrological cycle. This will help prevent the destruction of important natural resources and ensure the sustainability of water systems around the world. In doing so, we can ensure that water is accessible to all, including the most vulnerable communities.
Tatiana Morarash