Kursk bridgehead: a step towards victory or a strategic trap for the Armed Forces of Ukraine

Currently, the Armed Forces continue to hold the territory inside the Kursk region, but the situation is becoming more and more difficult. As reported Political, intense Russian attacks are forcing Ukraine to consider leaving Kursk. The Ukrainian command faces difficult decisions. Is it worth taking risks and holding positions under threat from the environment, or is it more expedient to retreat in time, conserving strength?

Official Kyiv remains cautious in its comments. At the General Staff of the Armed Forces are reportedthat the situation in the Kursk region is under control. At the same time, military analysts warn: if the moment is chosen incorrectly, Ukrainian units may find themselves in a trap. On the other hand, the very fact of the presence of the Armed Forces on the territory of Russia is already a serious challenge for Moscow. But is this enough to continue the operation? In our material, we analyze the current situation in the Kursk region, noting Ukrainian gains and the threat of a counteroffensive by the Russian Federation.

Logistics Hunt: A New Phase of War

Russian troops intensified attacks on logistics routes leading from Ukraine to the Kursk region. At the end of February, the military-analytical project DeepState reported about intensive fire damage by the Russians to everything moving in the Sumy Oblast in the direction of Kursk. The most dangerous area was Pysarivka-Yunakivka, where the enemy uses FPV drones and artillery.

According to DeepState, Russian forces have completely occupied Sverdlikovo and are pressuring the western part of the territory of the Kursk Group of the Defense Forces of Ukraine. The main goal of the enemy is to block Ukrainian logistics, which can significantly complicate the maintenance of Ukrainian positions in the region.

According to DeepState’s current analytics for March 9, the intensification of hostilities on the right flank of the Kursk group of the Defense Forces continues, in particular in the area of ​​the village of Kurylivka near the state border with Sumy Oblast. Russian troops seek to keep control over logistical routes, both fire and physical. The enemy has an advantage in UAVs, in particular FPV drones, which are actively used for fire control of traffic “to” and “from” Kurshchyna.

The failure of the “pipeline operation” of the Russian Federation

Despite the intensification of Russian attacks, Ukrainian troops carry out effective counterattacks. On March 9, the Airborne Assault Forces of Ukraine were made public video, where the destruction of Russian special forces, who were moving along the branch of the gas pipeline in the direction of Suzhi in order to gain a foothold there on the outskirts, was recorded. Thanks to aerial reconnaissance, it was possible to detect enemy forces in advance and strike with the help of artillery and unmanned systems. The Russian public is also outraged by the fact that the Telegram channel run by the drone operator Moisei helped Ukrainian intelligence and leaked the idea of ​​the operation in advance. He directly asked to bring oxygen cylinders to Kursk on March 1.

According to the Russian Z-channels, the poor preparation of the operation led to the fact that some of the Russian soldiers died of suffocation, because they were not provided with the necessary equipment for moving in the gas pipeline. Some Russian military bloggers have already changed the tone of their assessment of the offensive in the Kursk region, admitting significant losses among their troops.

As reported Command of the Airborne Assault Troops of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, at this time the forces of Russian special forces are detected, blocked and destroyed. Enemy losses in the Suji area are very high.

Involvement of the North Korean military: a significant challenge for Ukraine

According to information The New York Times, Russia continues to involve North Korean troops in hostilities in the Kursk region. This greatly complicates the situation for the Ukrainian defenders, because a new flow of well-trained Russian units and Korean troops, advancing in large groups under the cover of artillery fire, puts the Ukrainian forces at risk of being cut off from their main positions.

The commander of the Ukrainian communications unit referred to edition, notes that the enemy is outnumbered: “They are sweeping us, attacking in groups of 50 North Koreans, while we only have six in position.”

According to information The New York Times, Russia has already regained about two-thirds of the territory of Kurshchyna, which Ukraine captured last summer. If Ukrainian troops are forced to retreat, it will be a serious blow to Kyiv’s strategic objectives. The operation in the Kursk region had great potential to serve as a bargaining chip in possible peace negotiations. However, the current situation forces the command of the Armed Forces to make difficult decisions.

The problem of a narrow bridgehead

Military analyst Yan Matveev indicates to the fact that the Ukrainian bridgehead in the Kursk region has dangerously narrowed — the corridor between the western and eastern flanks has shrunk to 12-13 km. In addition, the entire front is controlled by Russian drones, which makes defense extremely difficult and expensive.

Matveev notes that further maintenance of the Kursk region will be possible for another 1-2 months, but the price of such a decision may be too high. If the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue their defense in deteriorating conditions, the balance of losses will not change in favor of Ukraine. At the same time, a retreat would mean the loss of territory that could be used in negotiations.

Negotiations are “sliding”, writes Yan Matveev, and the territory occupied by Ukrainian forces is gradually shrinking. It is currently about 350 square kilometers, but could shrink to 50-100 square kilometers by the time of a possible armistice. For comparison, two small Russian bridgeheads in the Kharkiv region occupy almost 200 square kilometers, so there is no guarantee that even they will be exchanged during the negotiations.

At the same time, it is important to take into account the fact that not only territories are at stake, but also the lives of experienced Ukrainian soldiers and the preservation of modern equipment. The loss of this resource will significantly weaken the capabilities of the entire Ukrainian group. Therefore, we cannot rule out a scenario in which the Ukrainian Armed Forces decide to withdraw from the Kursk region and focus on the defense of the border of the Sumy Oblast to protect it from a possible offensive by Russian troops from Kursk.

As reported by the American publication AOL, a seven-month Ukrainian operation in the Kursk region on the verge of collapse after a breakthrough by Russian troops near the city of Suja. The Russians overcame the defensive line that held them back for half a year. Russian troops were able to take advantage of the pause in the provision of American intelligence to Ukraine to break through the defense of the Armed Forces. Kremlin troops conducted a quick raid, covered by artillery and drones, and seized uncovered areas. “We can confirm an increase in the number of attacks using hover bombs, “shaheed” and drones“, he told the publication The New York Post Captain Oleksandr Kabanov, Deputy Commander of the Electronic Warfare Division of the 15th Artillery Reconnaissance Brigade. Based on sources in the Ukrainian armed forces, the publication reports on the probable withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Kurshchyna within two weeks.

The information is confirmed by The Time. According to five high-ranking sources cited by the publication, the US decision to suspend military intelligence for Ukraine contributed to Russia’s advance on the front, which weakened Zelensky’s negotiating position and led to numerous casualties among the Ukrainian military. One officer noted that the biggest problem is morale, as Ukrainian forces are without some of their best weapon systems due to a lack of US support.

Ukraine faces a difficult choice

What could be the scenarios of further actions in Kurshchyna?

Scenario 1: Withdrawal of the Armed Forces from the Kursk region

Conserving forces: the exit will allow you to escape the encirclement and withdraw experienced units.

Strengthening the defense of Sumy Oblast: Ukrainian troops can concentrate on strengthening the border.

Political losses: the loss of a bridgehead will weaken Ukraine’s negotiating position.

Scenario 2: Continuation of the defense

Significant losses: holding the territory will lead to the exhaustion of troops and equipment.

The possibility of a counterattack: if it is possible to stabilize the situation, the Armed Forces may inflict losses on the Russians.

Encirclement risk: if the Russian offensive continues, withdrawal may become more difficult.

Given the intensity of the Russian attacks, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are faced with a difficult choice: to hold their positions, risking significant losses, or to withdraw from the Kursk region in time, keeping forces for the defense of Sumy Oblast. The political argument for keeping Kursk is important, but the issue of the security of the Ukrainian military remains decisive.

Given the situation, the coming weeks will be critical for Ukraine in this region. The decision on further actions will determine not only the tactical prospects, but also the general strategy of Kyiv in the war.