In response to growing threats, Great Britain launched the Nordic Warden system to monitor underwater infrastructure and track the actions of the Russian “shadow fleet”. About this reported Defense Minister John Healy, emphasizing Britain’s determination to counter Russian aggression not only in Ukraine, but also beyond its borders.
The project was a response to an incident in the Baltic Sea where a cable providing power between Finland and Estonia was damaged. The government of Finland believes that the damage may be related to the actions of ships of the Russian “shadow fleet”. Healy noted, that the United Kingdom government is concerned about similar cases of sabotage of underwater communication lines.
This is the first time when Combined Expeditionary Force (JEF), led by Great Britain, use the Nordic Warden system. JEF is a military alliance created for rapid response to threats in Northern Europe, the Baltic region and the North Atlantic, including threats related to Russian aggression. Unlike NATO, JEF works more flexibly and quickly. The Union ensures the security and protection of critical infrastructure in maritime regions.
The Nordic Warden system becomes an important tool in JEF’s work to identify threats to underwater communications and monitor suspicious vessels in real time. The system is based at the JEF headquarters in Northwood and uses artificial intelligence, thanks to which it can quickly assess risks and immediately inform NATO allies and the JEF.
Why underwater infrastructure is critically important
Currently, underwater infrastructure is the foundation of the global economy, communications and energy supply, and any damage to it could have catastrophic consequences. Undersea communication cables carry more than 95% of all international Internet traffic. They connect continents, transmitting data for the operation of financial markets, government agencies, businesses and ordinary users. Trillions of dollars in financial transactions are carried over these cables every day, and any disruption in their operation can have serious economic consequences. Stopping data transmission even for a few hours can disrupt banks, destabilize markets and cause serious communication disruptions.
In addition to communication, submarine cables are important for power supply. They transfer electricity between, say, Scandinavia, Great Britain and Europe. In addition, electricity generated by offshore wind farms is transported through the underwater infrastructure.
However, underwater infrastructure is vulnerable to threats, primarily to targeted attacks. Cables laid on the bottom of oceans and seas are difficult to protect due to their length and location. This makes them easy targets for sabotage. If the cables are damaged, there may be interruptions in the work of communication or energy systems, which will complicate the coordination of actions between NATO countries, which is especially critical in the conditions of military operations or crisis situations.
In addition, man-made risks should also be taken into account. Even accidental damage from vessels or fishing gear can disrupt infrastructure. If such events occur in strategically important areas, such as the Baltic, their consequences will be felt far beyond the region’s borders.
A special threat is the actions of the “shadow fleet” – submarines or specialized ships that can damage cables or other infrastructure. Such diversions are often carried out secretly, without the use of force. It is part of hybrid warfare, where aggressor countries use a threat to create political or economic pressure.
What is the “shadow fleet” and what is its threat
This is a group of vessels that operate secretly and try to remain invisible. They can disable equipment that transmits their location or even change their appearance to avoid being recognized. Russia often uses such vessels for covert operations against other countries.
These ships can spy on other countries, intercept data transmitted over submarine cables, or study how infrastructure is protected to find vulnerabilities. The “Shadow Fleet” engages in sabotage, intentionally damaging cables or energy routes connecting countries. News about the illegal activities of the Russian shadow fleet is constantly circulating in the infofield, for example, transportation of oil to circumvent international sanctions.
Such actions have already caused serious problems. In 2023, a cable transmitting electricity between Finland and Estonia was damaged in the Baltic. The investigation showed that a Russian vessel was spotted nearby, which raised suspicions of sabotage. In Norway, Russian ships were repeatedly spotted near gas pipelines and cables, which also caused alarm. One of the loudest incidents happened in 2022, when gas pipelines were damaged “Northern stream“. Although the guilt of certain individuals or structures has not been proven, many experts are sure that Russian vessels are involved.
Why Great Britain initiated the Nordic Warden, how NATO supports this initiative and whether there are analogues in other countries
The creation of the Nordic Warden was initiated by the United Kingdom as one of the leading NATO countries, which has a powerful fleet and extensive experience in the protection of maritime territories. Britain also leads the Joint Expeditionary Force, a military alliance that also includes Denmark, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, and Iceland. These countries are particularly vulnerable to threats in maritime regions and Britain is coordinating efforts to protect them.
Nordic Warden is part of the UK’s strategy to strengthen security in the region. After leaving the EU, London seeks closer cooperation with the countries of Northern Europe and the Baltic States.
NATO countries are helping to develop Nordic Warden by providing technical support, sharing threat intelligence and helping to coordinate actions. This system works together with other projects in different countries. For example, the US has a system JUSS to track underwater threats, and France uses special underwater vehicles to monitor cables. Germany, the Netherlands, Norway and the Baltic States also have their own programs to protect marine infrastructure. Last April, Belgium, Great Britain, Denmark, Germany, Norway and the Netherlands signed agreement on joint work on the protection of underwater infrastructure in the North Sea. The agreement aims to strengthen the safety of underwater cables and pipelines after the explosions on the Nord Stream gas pipelines in September 2022.
How exactly the AI in Nordic Warden works, how the system protects data and copes with challenges
The Nordic Warden system receives information from various sources. For example, ships transmit their locations via AIS, an automatic identification system used for vessel tracking and navigational safety that allows ships to transmit and receive information about themselves via radio signals operating in the VHF band. Satellites show their routes from above, and hydroacoustics allows you to “listen” underwater and find submarines or other objects. In addition, the system receives intelligence data.
AI analyzes this data, looks for suspicious details and assesses the level of risk for each ship. It can detect if a ship is behaving strangely or trying to hide its route. If something looks dangerous, the system quickly notifies the military and NATO partners.
The data processed by the system is well protected from hacker attacks, and the system constantly checks itself for threats. In the event of an attack, the system can isolate the affected parts and continue to work.
Nordic Warden also learns from each case to become smarter and better recognize potential threats. This makes her a reliable assistant in the protection of important objects and the fight against dangers lurking under water.
Nordic Warden effectively responds to challenges in underwater infrastructure monitoring. The main problem is the intentional distortion of AIS data. Some ships change this data to hide their actions. Nordic Warden solves this problem by comparing AIS data with satellite images, sonar signals and intelligence. If the system detects an inconsistency, for example, a vessel disappears from radar or changes course abruptly, it raises suspicion and the information is checked through additional sources.
One of the challenges is the detection of small underwater vehicles – drones or mini-submarines, which are difficult to see due to their size and ability to operate at great depths. The system uses sensitive hydroacoustic sensors to detect the movement of even small objects, analyzes the topography of the bottom and predicts the location of these devices. It is also planned to add autonomous underwater drones for patrolling marine areas and checking suspicious objects.
It is worth noting. that the Nordic Warden faces legal and political challenges as there are limitations to monitoring vessels in international waters. After all, ships have the right to freedom of navigation, and some countries may consider monitoring an interference in their affairs, which can cause political tensions.
Possibilities for improvement of Nordic Warden and integration with other NATO defense systems
The system is expected to be updated to better detect threats. It will be complemented by modern sensors for searching for the smallest dangers at the bottom of the seas. It is also planned to use underwater drones for automatic inspection of cables and pipelines, and quick response in the event of a threat. Advanced AI will analyze data in real time, instantly warning of dangers.
Nordic Warden will be integrated with other NATO security systems: the US IUSS, which monitors underwater threats. France, Germany and the Netherlands will also have their monitoring programs linked to Nordic Warden, allowing the countries to work as a single team.
In the future, the system can be used not only in Northern Europe, but also in other regions with underwater infrastructure, such as the Mediterranean Sea, Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.
…Thanks to innovative technologies and cooperation between countries, Nordic Warden can become a global tool for the protection of underwater infrastructure, helping to make the world safer.
Tetyana Viktorova
