In the period from June 30 to July 4, the National Bank of Ukraine sold 661.1 million US dollars on the interbank foreign exchange market. The volume of sales decreased by 214 million compared to the previous week, when the volume of foreign exchange interventions exceeded 875 million. About this testify official data of the regulator. Thus, the sale of currency decreased by almost 25%, or by 214 million dollars.
The purchase of currency, on the contrary, came to almost nothing: the NBU purchased only 200,000 dollars. For comparison, a week earlier (from June 23 to 27), the regulator purchased 700,000. This may indicate both a decrease in the excess supply of currency on the market, and the restrained position of the National Bank itself in a period of unstable demand.
As a reminder, on October 2, 2023, the National Bank officially announced the abandonment of the fixed exchange rate of the hryvnia to the dollar. Since October 3, the country has introduced a regime of controlled swimming: now the course is shaped by the market, but with the active participation of the regulator through daily interventions.
A reduction in the volume of foreign exchange sales may indicate several trends:
- Seasonal decrease in demand for foreign currency — July is traditionally less active in imports compared to the spring months.
2. Strengthening of grain export — despite the war risks, foreign exchange earnings from the new harvest are coming to Ukraine.
3. Administrative restrictions and controls — instruments of exchange control, which limit speculation in the market, continue to operate.
At the same time, the small amount of currency purchases — only 200,000 dollars — indicates the absence of a significant oversupply of the dollar. This may be a consequence of the stabilization of external revenues, the cautious behavior of exporters, as well as the possible preparation of the market for new waves of energy import needs on the eve of the autumn-winter period.
The National Bank will continue to be an active player in the foreign exchange market, both as a seller and as a buyer, depending on the situation. In the absence of external shocks, a gradual decrease in the volume of interventions is expected in July, unless there are sharp jumps in import demand or fluctuations in inflationary expectations.
The regulator also continues the weekly release of currency transaction statistics, which allows for near-real-time monitoring of market dynamics — a key transparency tool for investors and analysts.
