Oleksandr Kovalenko analyzes the dynamics of Russia’s losses: why Ukraine’s defense strategy does not give the expected result
Against the background of a protracted war, where both sides are gradually adapting to the realities of the modern battlefield, the Ukrainian defense strategy is increasingly being evaluated through the prism of its main goal — the depletion of the enemy’s human resources. According to experts, a clear trend has been observed in recent months: the losses of the Russian army are decreasing, despite maintaining the pace of advancement. This fact, according to military observer Oleksandr Kovalenko, indicates not a decrease in enemy activity, but weak points in the Ukrainian system of defense organization, which need to be revised.
The beginning of July became another point for evaluating the results of the advance of Russian troops on the territory of Ukraine. As notes military observer Oleksandr Kovalenko, during the first week of the month during the second phase of the summer offensive, 166 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory were occupied by the enemy. This indicator actually became the statistical average in the weekly dynamics of the advance of Russian forces.
However, the expert does not pay the main attention to the speed of the offensive, but another parameter that he considers to be key within the framework of the Ukrainian defense strategy is the number of enemy losses in manpower. According to him, during the same week, the total losses of personnel of the Russian Federation amounted to 7,630 people. This means that for every square kilometer of captured Ukrainian territory, there are an average of 45 bodies of dead occupiers.
Kovalenko considers this indicator to be far from optimal. In conditions where the Ukrainian defense strategy is based precisely on the principle of inflicting maximum damage on the enemy’s manpower, such figures testify to serious miscalculations in the implementation of this strategy. The rate of losses per square kilometer in July is significantly lower than the proportions recorded in previous months – in particular, in March and January 2025.
According to the expert’s calculations, during June 2025, Russian troops captured 547 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory. At the same time, the total losses of Russians in manpower amounted to 32,420 people. This gives a ratio of 59 bodies per square kilometer. In 2024, as Kovalenko notes, this ratio averaged 129 bodies per 1 km². In January 2025 – 148, and in March – 304. Thus, the current indicator – 45 bodies per 1 km² – the expert considers to be critically low in the context of the assigned defense tasks.
Kovalenko emphasizes that the tendency to reduce enemy losses has been observed for three months in a row. And although the total number of losses from January 1 to July 1, 2025 still remains significant — 230,020 dead with a total volume of captured territories of 1,837 km² (that is, 125 bodies per 1 km²), the constant decrease of this indicator is an alarming signal. The expert believes that one of the reasons for such a decline is the excessive bet on FPV drones as the main means of defeating the enemy’s manpower. He does not deny their effectiveness as a technological solution, but he emphasizes that the focus on this tool has led to a decrease in attention to other classical methods of fire damage, in particular to artillery.
According to Kovalenko, FPV drones have become a cheap, affordable and accurate weapon of destruction, but they cannot replace a full-fledged fire impact system. The problem, according to his observation, is that in the conditions of limited resources, the provision of other means of struggle – artillery, mortars, heavy weapons – ended up in secondary positions. Even in those cases where the artillery receives ammunition, it happens without taking into account modern tactical requirements. In particular, he points to the lack of priority in providing artillery and mortar units with cluster munitions, which are critically important in conditions of maneuverable defense.
Kovalenko notes that a comprehensive approach to the organization of defense should include not only the point use of technologically modern weapons, but balanced support of all components of the defense system. According to him, FPV drones currently play the role of the main means of neutralizing the enemy’s manpower, but they cannot compensate for the lack of artillery fire in all directions of the front.
The expert also draws attention to the fact that the current strategy, which in theory should slow down the enemy’s advance due to high losses, actually does not fulfill this function. Russian troops continue to occupy Ukrainian territory, while losing less and less manpower. Such a situation directly contradicts the objectives of the defensive campaign, which from the very beginning was based on the principle of exhausting the aggressor’s resources.
In his opinion, this situation does not require individual solutions, but a systematic rethinking of approaches to combat support, planning and resource management. Until the Ukrainian side restores the balance between high-precision means and traditional instruments of fire influence, it will be extremely difficult to achieve stabilization of the front and effective containment of the enemy’s advance.
The opinion of the expert may not coincide with the position of our editorial office.
