Autumn has always been a season of political games in Ukraine – a period when behind-the-scenes arrangements and preparations for election races were in full swing. But the third fall of the full-scale war put the country in front of a dilemma: are elections even possible when the life of the nation literally depends on every decision on the front? While on the sidelines they are talking about preparations for the elections, Ukrainians are not paying attention to political slogans, but to whether they are ready to elect a new government at a time when the war continues? Are there any politicians they still trust?
Legislative obstacles
In recent months, the Ukrainian political space has been abuzz with talk of possible elections under martial law. At first, Western politicians began to hint at such a prospect, later Ukrainian officials joined them, and then the state leadership. In one of the interviews, the President of Ukraine noted that elections are possible under certain conditions, and the Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada appealed to international partners to help “study the experience of elections during the war.” The Minister of Foreign Affairs emphasized that the president is carefully weighing all the pros and cons, and the final decision has not yet been made.
It would seem that all this political activity may indicate the possibility of holding elections even in wartime conditions, but the realities of legislation remain unchanged. Article 19 of the Law of Ukraine “On the Legal Regime of Martial Law” clearly prohibits the holding of any elections during martial law. We are talking about all elections: presidential, parliamentary, local, and even elections to the Verkhovna Rada of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea. And while changes to the law can be voted on by the Verkhovna Rada, the Constitution of Ukraine only prohibits parliamentary elections in wartime, potentially opening the door to other types of election campaigns.
Against the background of this political tension, in 2023 it was submitted to the consideration of the President of Ukraine petition, which called for a ban on any initiatives to amend the electoral law during martial law. In particular, the citizens asked for a guarantee that the President would veto any attempt to lift the ban on holding elections during the war. However, this petition gathered only 6,240 votes, which is far from the necessary for consideration. Such low support may indicate that Ukrainians are currently not too eager for electoral changes, or simply do not believe that elections in the conditions of war will bring any tangible changes.
During the interview FOX News Regarding possible presidential elections in 2024, Volodymyr Zelenskyy emphasized that he did not cancel them, as the law expressly prohibits elections during martial law.
“This is not my new law. This is the law of Ukraine, which was from the very beginning. Therefore, no one canceled it.” – said the president.
He also rejected suggestions that he is allegedly seeking to hold on to power.
“This is nonsense, because now I have the most support in society. So, if we hold this election now, the people will elect me. So I am not trying to stay in power because I will win the election if it is held now. Therefore, the only way to hold elections now is to change the legislation.” – added Zelensky.
The question of the legitimacy of elections is always based on public demand. Are Ukrainians ready to elect a new government while the war continues? The electoral race can become not only a political event, but also an additional front of struggle, where the stakes are extremely high.
Public sentiments regarding the elections
If we talk about the possibility of holding elections in conditions of war, the question of the sympathies of Ukrainians becomes key. The last one research of the Razumkov Center from October 15, shows an interesting trend. If at the beginning of the war the majority believed that the country was going in the right direction, then in 2024 this indicator fell sharply. Only 33% believe that the situation is developing well, while 47% are convinced of the opposite. Public sentiment has changed, and the main question is whether people trust the current political forces.
Only 27% of Ukrainians believe that there are political players capable of leading the country after the war. This is an alarming signal for the current elite, as about 70% of the population craves change. However, unlike many countries where such a situation can lead to revolutions, in Ukraine it works in favor of the authorities. The daily reality of cataclysms and war reinforces the legitimacy of political leadership, as citizens place their hopes on those who are already leading the country through this storm.
At the same time, many Ukrainians are cautious about the elections, not because they do not want changes, but because they do not yet know what security configuration the country will have. Before making fateful political decisions, people want to know whether their protection will be guaranteed after the war. At the same time, criticism of the previous government, in particular the former president, regarding the actions of the current leadership at the beginning of the invasion, only undermines the idea of elections, because such attacks reflect only internal political struggles, and not real solutions to security issues.
According to the survey, more than 60% of Ukrainians are ready to endure the war as long as it takes, but demand a fair distribution of the war burden. And when people see prosecutors who “fake” disability, or other powerful people who try to avoid service, accrue huge pensions at a young age, are bogged down in corruption, it causes great indignation. In conditions where society is on the verge of survival, such situations only fuel social tension. At the same time, the key factor remains the readiness of our country for negotiations, but under clear conditions. If the West provides Ukraine with real security guarantees – membership in NATO or bilateral agreements – part of the population is ready to postpone the issue of deoccupation of certain territories for the future. But if there are no such guarantees, no compromises with Russia are acceptable for the majority of Ukrainians.
For whom Ukrainians would vote more during the elections
The political landscape of Ukraine is changing under the pressure of circumstances, while the war continues, the prospect of elections for many Ukrainians looks like an attempt by the old elites to hold on to power. This is not just mistrust, but a consequence of real attitudes recorded by sociologists. As the survey by the Razumkov Center shows, voters clearly understand who they are ready to trust with the future of the country, and it is definitely not those who are currently in the government offices.
To the question “how much do you trust social institutions?” in their answers, Ukrainians expressed the highest level of trust in the following institutions (by year):
Armed Forces of Ukraine:
- July–August 2021: 68.3%
- June 2024: 90.0%
- September 2024: 91.5%
State Emergency Service:
- July–August 2021: 61.4%
- June 2024: 78.9%
- September 2024: 83.1%
Volunteer organizations:
- July–August 2021: 63.6%
- June 2024: 81.1%
- September 2024: 80.3%
Volunteer units:
- July–August 2021: 53.5%
- June 2024: 79.6%
- September 2024: 79.5%
Therefore, the highest level of trust was received by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the State Emergency Service, volunteers and voluntary organizations. Against this background, traditional political parties look hopeless: only 17% of Ukrainians are ready to trust them with the country.
It is also interesting that, according to the results of the citizens’ survey, during the years of the war, the level of trust in key state structures decreased significantly. If at the beginning of the war, when the country faced an existential threat, Ukrainians united and even traditionally “unpopular” institutions, such as the Verkhovna Rada, received a high level of support, today the situation has changed radically. Currently, the level of trust in the parliament is -62.5%, in the government – -52%, in officials – -63.2%, and in the judicial system – -53.8%.
However, this is not the only problem. As long as the military and volunteers continue to fight the enemy, they would not be physically able to participate in the elections. And here the main paradox arises: those whom the people want to see at the helm are busy protecting the country, and politicians who do not have support are trying to stay in power. This creates an even greater gap between the government and society. If elections are held without proper explanations and under conditions where key players cannot participate in them, they will become failures and increase distrust in the institutions of government.
So, the elections today look like an open trap for the authorities. As the mood of the population shows, Ukrainians do not want to rush to the polls to vote. The main reason for this is the feeling that elections in the conditions of an unfinished war look like a way for the old elites to hold on to power. However, these elites themselves understand that under such conditions they have little chance of winning. They risk losing power if they do not complete key processes in domestic and foreign policy. Therefore, if the elections were held, they would open a “Pandora’s box”, which is too early to unpack, especially when the country is still fighting for its existence.
