Russia is stepping up offensives in several directions, preparing for pressure ahead of possible negotiations: ISW
Russian troops are increasing the intensity of hostilities in several areas of the front at once, which, according to analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), is part of the Kremlin’s broader strategy to increase military and psychological pressure on Ukraine ahead of potential peace talks.
In a new analytical review by ISW it is said about the noticeable intensification of Russian offensive actions in the Lyman, Pokrovsky, and Orikhov directions, as well as in the north of the Sumy region. Analysts note that the Russian Federation is trying to dislodge Ukrainian units from border positions, in particular in the Kursk region, from where actions are being taken against the northern regions of Ukraine.
At the same time, the diplomats of the “Big Seven” countries expressed solidarity with President Volodymyr Zelenskyi’s warning about the possible escalation of Russian offensives in the Sumy, Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia regions.
ISW suggests that the Kremlin may try to use even limited tactical successes on the front to create an atmosphere of threat and panic in the Ukrainian information space. Analysts note that the Russian command is unlikely to transfer troops from the Kursk region if it is really planning a concerted offensive in the direction of Sumy. At the same time, according to their estimates, Russia does not have enough operational-level reserves to simultaneously conduct major offensive operations in the Sumy, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia regions without weakening its positions on other fronts.
Experts also believe that the Russian Federation will try to bring its forces closer to the cities within artillery distance, in order to increase the pressure on the civilian population and possibly lay the groundwork for the next ground operations – before the establishment of a ceasefire.
At the same time, the ISW emphasizes that the Russian army does not have the capabilities for a simultaneous large-scale attack on three large Ukrainian cities at once. During the war, the Russian army suffered significant losses in manpower and equipment and still has not demonstrated the ability to carry out complex offensive actions in several directions at the same time.
