The National Bank approved the methodology for stress testing of banks in 2025, which will start in June. About this informs press office of the regulator.
Stress testing is an important component of assessing the financial stability of banks. This year, 21 banks, which account for more than 90% of the assets of the entire banking system of Ukraine, will take part in the tests.
In 2025, the regulator returns to using the adverse scenario during stress testing. For comparison, during the assessment of 2023, only the basic macroeconomic scenario, calculated for three years ahead based on the NBU forecast, was used. However, changes in the banking sector — adaptation to martial law conditions, active growth of assets — require a deeper assessment of potential risks. The use of a crisis scenario will make it possible to more accurately determine how banks are ready to face possible challenges.
The scenario developed by the National Bank simulates a hypothetical protracted crisis. In particular, in the first year, GDP is expected to fall at the level of 3.13.1%, which corresponds to approaches to stress testing in EU countries. A complete list of macroeconomic assumptions for the analysis is available at the appropriate link.
The forecasting horizon will traditionally be three years. Bank balance sheets will remain static during this period — their structure will not change, except for the impact of risks and exchange rate revaluations.
During testing, the implementation of credit, interest, currency and operational risks will be simulated. Credit risk takes into account the deterioration of asset quality, which is determined individually for large corporate borrowers, and for the rest – on the basis of a portfolio approach. Interest rate risk will arise due to fixed rates on assets against the background of rising liabilities. Currency risk involves devaluation, changes in the open currency position, as well as the related effect on other types of risks. The impact of operational risk on banks’ capital is also taken into account.
Based on the results of stress testing, the level of capital adequacy necessary to maintain stability even in a crisis situation will be determined for each bank. In the event that the calculated level exceeds the current regulations, the bank will have to prepare a capitalization or restructuring plan to ensure compliance with the requirements. The National Bank will publish the results of the sustainability assessment for individual banks at the end of the year.
