“The probability of the appearance of a “black swan” exists 24/7″: Klimkin on Trump’s policy and his meeting with Putin
The world froze in anticipation of a possible meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. This event can become one of the key moments in global politics, because its consequences can affect the geopolitical balance of power. Analysts and experts put forward different predictions about the results of future negotiations – from a potential agreement to a tough confrontation.
Former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Pavlo Klimkin as well shared his vision of this meeting. He told how Trump changed his approach to politics, what to expect from his dialogue with Putin and what risks may appear on the international arena.
Klimkin on Trump’s policy
Former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Pavlo Klimkin believes that Donald Trump’s political strategy has changed significantly compared to his first presidential term. According to him, Trump no longer just acts as a charismatic leader, but clearly understands what he wants to achieve and by what methods.
Klimkin points out that at a deep level, Trump may have some sympathy for the image of Putin as a “strong leader”, but this does not mean that he will act in his favor. During his time in power, he gained experience and has a much better understanding of how international politics works. Today, Trump has a dedicated team ready to take unprecedented steps.
The former diplomat cites as an example the situation with Elon Musk, who was actually allowed to “hack” the American public administration system by entering it and starting to change it at his own discretion. A few months ago, such a scenario seemed fantastic, but now it is a reality.
Klimkin emphasizes that Trump is well aware of how the rate hike mechanism works in negotiations, and this is not just a scare tactic. Many believe that his actions on Mexico or Venezuela are just pressure that will ease later, but, according to Klimkin, there is no need to hope for this.
Trump perfectly understands who Putin is and what the stakes are between the US and Russia. The former minister points out that for an American leader, concessions on any important issue could mean the beginning of the end of his image as a strong political player in the eyes of supporters.
He reminds that Joe Biden’s ratings fell sharply after the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan and never recovered. Despite the economic problems and inflation in the USA, it was the foreign policy failures that seriously undermined the confidence in the current president. According to Klimkin, Trump understands this and is unlikely to allow such a scenario.
In his opinion, Putin will not be able to “dilute” Trump in the negotiations. Klimkin emphasizes that the former US president is seriously preparing for a potential meeting with the Russian leader, which is likely to take place in the near future.
The upcoming meeting between Putin and Trump
The former minister reports that the specific framework of the upcoming meeting is now being actively discussed, although the place of its holding is not of critical importance. According to him, Putin will probably prefer Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates, since these countries are safe for him and have already been the place of his official visits.
For Russia, this option looks convenient – it is possible not only to hold negotiations, but also to use the opportunity for other diplomatic meetings. However, Klimkin emphasizes that the main thing is not the meeting place, but what approaches the parties will take to the negotiating table.
Klimkin emphasizes that the current political situation is unstable and requires careful monitoring. He notes that the probability of a so-called “black swan” (an unforeseen event that can radically change the situation) exists 24/7.
Despite the tension, the ex-minister expresses restrained optimism. He believes that the situation continues to develop, and much will depend on the specific actions of the parties. However, according to him, he has no clear pessimism yet.
