Ukrainian society is currently in a state of constant tension due to the escalation of the war and the uncertainty of the future. People want to know what to expect, because every day brings new challenges. The war unleashed by Russia has already turned into a global crisis that covers political, economic and social aspects. At the same time, the world is watching the situation in Ukraine, because its fate affects the stability of the entire region and the formation of a new world order.
The coming weeks are especially important, which, according to many experts, may become decisive for the further development of events. The issues of support for Ukraine by the international community, diplomatic efforts and military assistance are critical, since not only the course of the war, but also the future of the country depends on it. In these conditions, society seeks to understand how to act and is looking for answers to the questions that face Ukraine at its most critical moment.
In this context, the point of view of the Ambassador of Ukraine to Brazil, Andrii Melnyk, takes on special significance. He noted, that the next eight weeks will be the most responsible and difficult for the country since independence in 1991. These are decisive moments that will determine not only the course of the war, but also the future of Ukraine as a sovereign state.
The ambassador spoke about the results of the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro as follows:
“The fact is that Brazil, from the first days of its presidency at the beginning of this year (in the “Group of Twenty” – ed.), identified such a mainstream and decided that the topic of the war against Ukraine, Russian aggression should, in fact, be put aside…
We tried to influence this position, and not by ourselves. As you understand, our forces are not equal here in relation not only to Brazil, but also to other states of the Global South. Therefore, we sincerely hoped that our friends not only from the G7, but also from other Western countries that are members of the G20, would help to convince President (of Brazil – ed.) Lula to change this approach.
But, frankly (and this was confirmed by my conversations just the other day in Rio de Janeiro with those who were, let’s say, involved, that is, from insider circles, if you like), then unfortunately for us (and it must be admitted, and this must be understood) no one particularly fought… If we compare this declaration of the summit in Rio with the declaration last year in New Delhi, then even here we see a significant regression, a rollback. And this is a trend that should cause real concern.”
According to Melnyk, these weeks will be key for making decisions on which the fate of Ukraine will depend. The diplomat believes that before the inauguration of the new president of the United States, important decisions will be made that can significantly affect the situation in Ukraine. He emphasized that after this event, the room for maneuver will be significantly narrowed, and our country may find itself in a difficult diplomatic situation.
The ambassador expressed deep doubts about the effectiveness of alternative initiatives, such as the Sino-Brazilian proposal for a peaceful settlement. In his opinion, only the United States is capable of exerting a fundamental influence on the course of the war. At the same time, he drew attention to the words of Donald Trump, who declared his readiness to end the war in 24 hours. These statements should be taken seriously, because they may indicate the possibility of imposing undesirable decisions on Ukraine.
Melnyk stressed that Ukraine needs to concentrate all possible resources to work with the newly elected US administration. It is about the activation of diplomatic, political and social channels, in particular in Washington and Mar-a-Lago, where the new American leader spends most of his time. He emphasized that the key task of Ukrainian diplomacy is to avoid scenarios in which decisions regarding Ukraine will be made without its participation.
“We need to change our strategy completely. Not only in relations with our partners in the Global South, but also with our Western friends. We have to articulate these things. The West will lose (and it is losing now), although the objective prerequisites are not on to the other side
And the United States was, and remains, the largest economic power, and a military power, and the geopolitical center of gravity. The EU was and remains the largest internal market in the world, the richest center and a real player. But all these trumps that our friends have are not used…
Our American friends and European friends, if not to be quite diplomatic, are taking care of the rear. And that hurts my heart. First of all, it is necessary for the Western friends to change these approaches. We also need not only to change some accents in our diplomatic geostrategy.” – believes Melnyk.
The ambassador also noted that any peace settlement initiatives proposed by other countries should be carefully analyzed. At the same time, he expressed doubts that Donald Trump, as the newly elected president, would agree to share the laurels of a peacemaker with other states, such as China or Brazil. This creates an additional challenge for Ukraine, which must work to ensure that its position is heard and taken into account.
“It is possible to stop the war in 2025, but in order to achieve the result, it is necessary to create clear prerequisites. The main problem of modern diplomacy of Ukraine during the war is the dispersion of resources. We continue to function in war conditions, but we do not concentrate all available forces on key areas that can ensure positive result.
In particular, attention should be focused as much as possible on such partners as the United States, Germany and the European Union. All available diplomatic arsenal should be used here. If Ukraine avoids dispersion of efforts and directs all its power to these priority directions, it can create conditions for a significant breakthrough. We need to analyze past mistakes, identify exactly what didn’t work, and make adjustments.
There is every reason to believe that 2025 may become a decisive year for Ukraine. Perhaps this desire seems optimistic, but the prerequisites for such a scenario are real. The main thing is to use the available chance competently and consistently.
After the defeat of France in the Napoleonic wars, the world experienced fundamental changes that led to the creation of a new world order. Probably, something similar awaits today. However, this means that there will be no simple solution to the conflict. Stopping hostilities without deeper structural changes are only half-steps that will not bring lasting peace.” – the ambassador thinks.
