Turkey on the verge of dictatorship: the arrest of Erdogan’s opponent triggered a political and economic collapse

powerful resonance The arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, the main opposition rival of Turkish President Recep Erdogan, caused the world media. The detention of Imamoglu is perceived as an escalation of repression against the Turkish opposition.

Despite the ban on demonstrations, thousands of people came out on the streets of Istanbul, outraged by the actions of the authorities and worried about the state of democracy in the country. Human Rights Watch condemned the detention of Imamoglu, by naming it”flagrant abuse of the judicial system” and part of “politically motivated investigations“, aimed at weakening the opposition. ​

The economic consequences of Imamoglu’s arrest are already visible: drastic fell Turkish lira, the stock market suffered significant losses. The Turkish central bank was forced to intervene, by raising discount rate and spending billions of dollars to support the national currency. ​

The arrest of Erdogan’s opponent triggered a new wave of resistance in Turkey

The police surrounded the square with water cannons and armored vehicles, increasing the pressure on the protesters. Young people with flags sat on ants, watching the crowd. Indicative position of student Beryl with her mother, Yaki confessed, who joined other protesters not because of politics, but because of a sense of injustice: “We have laws here, but they don’t work anymoreMost of the protesters, who refused to be named for fear of persecution, spoke of the lack of rule of law and the arbitrariness of the government.

Imamoglu and over a hundred people detained in cases of corruption and alleged connections with Kurdish fighters. It was another step in the strengthening of the authoritarianism of Erdogan, who has ruled the country for more than two decades and aims to retain power beyond 2028. This situation once again demonstrates a regularity: a long stay in power almost inevitably turns the country’s leader into an authoritarian ruler who increasingly resorts to political repression and pressure on opponents in order to maintain control over the state.

Protesters are sure that Imamoglu’s arrest will only increase support for the latter. The leader of the Republican People’s Party Ozgur Ozel named detention is an attempt to break the will of the people. Student marches began in the city, and new demonstrations were announced for the evening.

The arrest of Ekrem Imamoglu didn’t just anger Istanbul – it sent a wave of anger across Turkey. People understood that this is not a local story, but a question of the survival of the remnants of democracy. That is why not only CHP supporters took to the streets, but representatives of various groups – from students to lawyers and municipal employees.

The geography of protests is expanding – Ankara, Izmir, Trabzon. Despite strict police orders, students organized their own march in Istanbul. CHP officials are openly calling for people to take to the streets. Party leader Ozgur Ozel speak directly: the government is trying to break the will of the people.

The authorities act according to the usual scenario – they intimidate. In response to the mass speeches of the Ministry of Internal Affairs throws another 37 were detained for “provocative posts”. But it is no longer possible to intimidate: the level of mobilization is very high. Lawyers believe: “This is a step towards sole power. We are not here for the party – we are here for the lawIt is significant that there are many young people among the protesters, people who came out for the first time since Gezi Park.

Gezi Park is a small green area in the heart of Istanbul. From there, in 2013, one of the most massive uprisings against the Erdogan regime began. Formally, people came out to protect the park from demolition, the authorities planned to build a shopping and entertainment center in its place. But in reality it was just an excuse. Discontent accumulated in the country, protesters came out against the authoritarian model of government, against the curtailment of freedoms and police arbitrariness.

And then Erdoğan showed the true face of his power – harsh persecution, tear gas, arrests. It was Gezi Park that symbolized the fact that there is no place left for free discussion in Turkey, and any attempt by citizens to protect their rights turns into a battle with the repressive state apparatus. It was the moment of truth when it became clear: Erdogan is building a classic authoritarian system where opponents are enemies and the people are a controlled mass.

Protesters chanted old slogans: “Don’t be afraid, we are human“. This is an optimistic signal that society has not yet lost its ability to resist. Imamoglu’s arrest did not break, but on the contrary, became a catalyst for the protest wave. The blow against the opposition leader only started the process of consolidation of forces that were scattered yesterday.

Imamoglu is arrested – Erdogan launches a regime of personal power

The 54-year-old mayor of Istanbul Ekrem Imamoglu became the main rival of the 71-year-old President Recep Tayyip Erdogan thanks to his rapid political career and ability to oppose the current government.

In politics, Imamoglu made his debut in the Republican People’s Party, where he proved himself as a promising leader. His popularity was increased by his ability to find a common language with different layers of the population and his desire for transparency in management.

In 2019, Ekrem Imamoglu dealt a devastating blow to Recep Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP), which had controlled Istanbul for more than a quarter of a century. He won the mayoral election, and after the authorities annulled the results of the first vote, he won an even more convincing victory in the re-election — with a margin of 800,000 votes. Imamoglu became not just a mayor, but a politician who demonstrated that the system fails. That is why the authorities are now seeking to eliminate him as a threat – in the run-up to the 2028 presidential elections, or even sooner if Erdogan decides to appoint an early one.

In the CHP, Imamoglu is considered a key figure capable of uniting the opposition and challenging Erdogan in the presidential race. His popularity exceeds the support of other opposition leaders, making him a potential candidate for the CHP in the upcoming elections. ​

Imamoglu’s arrest and other legal obstacles are perceived by his supporters as attempts by the authorities to neutralize him as a political competitor. These actions raise concerns about the state of democracy in Turkey and the fairness of the upcoming elections. ​

The arrest of Imamoglu is a demonstrative blow against Erdogan’s main rival, which proves that the government in Turkey is finally moving into manual mode. Official cause detention – two criminal proceedings at once. The first is alleged financial corruption and embezzlement in the city administration. The second is “helping terrorists” through possible contacts with the Kurdish group during the 2024 elections. Accusations of terrorism are a classic of the authoritarian genre.

No real evidence was presented to the public. But the moment was chosen perfectly – on the eve of the nomination of Imamoglu as a presidential candidate from the opposition CHP. Couldn’t stand it. Imamoglu created too serious a threat for Erdogan, his results in public opinion polls sounded too loud.

Human rights activists directly stated that this was a political massacre. Human Rights Watch emphasized – the Turkish authorities are again using the courts as a weapon against the opposition: “Flagrant abuse of the judiciary to neutralize a political rival”.

According to the scheme, everything is like after the attempted coup of 2016. Then thousands of judges, prosecutors, journalists and soldiers were “under the purge”. And now – the main opposition mayor of the country. The mechanics have not changed.

In Istanbul, thousands of people came to the square despite the ban. A banner with Imamoglu’s portrait and the words: “Sovereignty definitely belongs to the nation“. Young people, lawyers, students – all energy breaks through fear. People do not say their names, is afraid even the middle class. But they come out. Because they understand – it is not about a specific case, but about the fate of Turkey.

The Ministry of Internal Affairs of Turkey promptly gives respond: another minus 37 detained for “provocative posts”. The Minister of Justice declares: this is disinformation. The whole country is again declared enemies of the people.

Turkey is turning into Erdoğan’s personal fiefdom before our eyes. Imamoglu is the first serious victim on this path. But far from the last.

…The arrest of Imamoglu became a clear signal: Erdogan began a political purge before the elections. The West reacted sharply: the EU and the US talk about the violation of democracy, threaten sanctions and freeze cooperation. NATO worried – it threatens the stability of the Alliance.

The markets reacted instantly – the lira collapsed, investors fled, the economy plunged into crisis. The Central Bank raised the rate to 46%, but the fall did not stop.

This is part of the systemic collapse of democracy in Turkey: repression against the opposition, journalists and the Kurds. Imamoglu – Erdogan’s main rival – is now under attack to remove him before the start of the presidential campaign.

Next, early elections or a change in the constitution to “reset” Erdogan’s terms are possible. The only chance for the opposition is quick mobilization and mass protests. Otherwise, Turkey will finally slide into a dictatorship. We will talk about this next time.

Tetyana Viktorova