Ukrainians in Germany have become an economic burden for the budget: how the country is changing its migration policy
In the nine years since the start of the great migration crisis, German policy has undergone significant changes. Chancellor Angela Merkel, who opened the borders to more than a million refugees from the Middle East and Africa, no longer holds such a prominent position. Her decision became a real symbol of openness and humanity, but over time, Germany has gradually changed its approach to migration. Border controls have now been introduced at the borders with all neighbouring countries, and migration policy is increasingly focused on strengthening internal security. How will this affect Ukrainian refugees?
The recent changes in migration policy were a response to the elections in the eastern states of Thuringia, Saxony and Brandenburg. In these elections, harsh anti-immigrant rhetoric provided radical parties with significant voter support. The far-right Alternative for Germany party was particularly successful, gaining strong results, as well as the far-left Sarah Wagenknecht Alliance. These developments have prompted leading politicians to reconsider their attitudes to illegal migration and asylum.
The rise in anti-immigration sentiment occurred against the backdrop of several serious attacks committed by migrants who had been denied asylum. The most high-profile incident was the attack in the western German city of Solingen, where a Syrian man killed three people and was previously denied asylum. This case attracted special public attention and led to a tougher response from the authorities.
Anti-immigration upsurge: what Friedrich Merz is focusing on
Friedrich Merz, the leader of the CDU party, is one of the key figures in changing Germany’s migration policy. His statements on strengthening control over illegal migration and combating migrant-related crime have become the basis of his political programme. Merz notes that the crime rate in the country has increased disproportionately due to illegal migrants, and although he did not plan to make this issue central to his campaign, it has become one of the most important.
The political situation in Germany has changed significantly, as the CDU/CSU’s approval rating has exceeded 30%, which is twice as high as the support level of the three coalition parties combined. Under these circumstances, Merz has every chance of becoming the next German Chancellor, barring early elections or any extraordinary events.
Reasons for the change in German migration policy
A significant number of German citizens surveyed support tighter migration policy. In particular, according to the Deutschlandtrend survey, 48% of respondents named the issue of immigration and refugees as the most important or second most important political issue in the country. And 77% of respondents believe that Germany needs to change its asylum policy.
Anti-immigration sentiment has been exacerbated by the fact that there are about 3.48 million refugees in Germany, the highest number since the middle of the last century. One third of them are Ukrainian citizens who have been granted temporary protection due to the war with Russia. However, given the political processes in the country, such anti-immigration sentiments may also affect Ukrainians.
Changes implemented by the German government
Faced with increased criminal activity among migrants, the government of Olaf Scholz began to change its approach to migration. After the terrorist attack in Solingen, Chancellor Scholz made it clear that Germany should step up deportations of those who have committed serious crimes or have no right to reside in the country. According to the government, the number of deportations has increased by 20% this year, but the chancellor believes that the work in this area is not yet complete.
One of the first steps is the deportation of 28 Afghans accused of sexual and violent crimes, which was carried out for the first time since 2021, when the Taliban came to power in Afghanistan. The German government has also signed an agreement with Turkey to deport migrants who have been denied asylum.
Another important change was the legislative ‘security package’, which includes, among other things, increased opportunities for biometric investigations and a ban on carrying knives in public. Such measures are aimed at reducing the number of migrant-related crimes, but have already drawn criticism for being insufficiently tough.
Will the changes affect Ukrainians?
At first glance, the changes in German migration policy will not have a direct impact on Ukrainians, as they are in the country under the temporary protection mechanism, not through the asylum procedure. However, not everything is so clear. Many Ukrainians have already become the subject of discussions about cutting social benefits, as their maintenance is becoming a burden for the state budget.
Recently, the German coalition approved a bill that toughens the requirements for recipients of social assistance. In particular, if a person refuses to take up a job, he or she may lose the right to social benefits. CDU leader Friedrich Merz plans to introduce even tougher changes to the social welfare system, including cancelling unemployment benefits (Bürgergeld) received by Ukrainian refugees and replacing them with a new mechanism with stricter conditions.
As of July 2024, there were about 700,000 Ukrainians of working age living in Germany, but only 260,000 of them were employed. This means that hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians will have to find a job or be left without social benefits. Merz emphasises that Ukrainians need to integrate better into the labour market if they plan to stay in Germany for a long time.
The changes taking place in Germany indicate a significant tightening of migration policy. Anti-immigration sentiment, which has gripped a large part of the population, is leading to stricter control over illegal migrants and stricter requirements for refugees already in the country. Although Ukrainians are not currently subject to major changes in the asylum field, their economic situation may be affected by the revision of social benefits. Germany continues to adapt its policy to new challenges, and the future of Ukrainians in this country depends on how quickly they can integrate into the labour market and accept the new realities of migration policy.
