In February 2025, the number of officially registered unemployed in Ukraine decreased to 102,400. people — the lowest level in the entire history of observations. For comparison: in August 2024, this figure was 108.7 thousand. persons However, behind these numbers lies a more complex reality: many people who have lost their jobs are not registered due to informal employment, migration or distrust of the system.
At the same time, the forecast of the National Bank of Ukraine indicates that the situation on the labor market remains tense. The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 11.6% in 2025, with a further decline to 10.6% in 2026. This confirms that the problem is not so much situational as it is deeply structural in nature. The war, the transformation of the economy and the reduction of jobs in traditional industries create a situation where demand and supply in the labor market do not match. Ukrainians are faced with a choice: retraining, working in the shadows or going abroad. The formal decline in unemployment reported does not mean that these challenges are disappearing—rather, they are taking on new forms, exacerbating inequalities in access to opportunity.
What is structural unemployment?
This is a type of unemployment that occurs as a result of changes in the economic structure of the country, when certain professions and skills lose relevance, and new jobs require other competencies. Conventionally speaking, there are employees, but they do not meet the requirements of the market.
In the Ukrainian context, structural unemployment is exacerbated due to several key factors:
War and business relocation – due to hostilities, many businesses have closed or relocated, leading to job losses in certain regions and labor shortages in others.
Technological progress and digitalization – automation of processes reduces the need for workers of old specialties, instead, the demand for IT specialists, analysts, cyber security specialists, etc., is increasing.
Mismatch between education and market needs – the Ukrainian education system often does not prepare graduates for the real challenges of the labor market, which complicates the employment of young people.
Gender and age disparities – among the officially registered unemployed, women make up the majority (74.6 thousand), and young people under 35 years old – 23.1 thousand. This may indicate the difficulties of women in accessing certain professions and the insufficient number of opportunities for young professionals.
On paper it is a labor market, in reality it is a survival market
A low level of registered unemployment is often taken as a positive signal for the economy, but in reality, this number can hide serious problems in the labor market. A reduction in the number of officially registered unemployed does not always mean that Ukrainians find work more easily or that employment in the country is increasing. In fact, there are several factors that distort the statistics and create the illusion of stability.
One of the main factors is the mass transition to informal employment. In the conditions of war and economic instability, many Ukrainians are forced to work without official registration, because this gives them the opportunity to earn income here and now, without waiting for long employment procedures or fulfilling all bureaucratic requirements. However, this situation has a reverse side: people without official work are deprived of social guarantees, do not have insurance experience and risk being left without support in case of loss of earnings.
Another important factor is migration. Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, millions of Ukrainians have gone abroad, and among them a significant part is the working population. This automatically reduces the number of officially unemployed people in the country, but does not mean that there are more jobs or that the economic situation has improved. On the contrary, many industries are already facing shortages, and those who remain cannot always find work that matches their qualifications.
In addition, many Ukrainians simply do not turn to state employment services. The reason is a lack of confidence in their effectiveness. Public employment centers often offer a limited list of vacancies, which does not always correspond to the actual labor market or the needs of job seekers. Therefore, many people look for work on their own – through acquaintances, social networks or private recruiting agencies. As a result, official statistics reflect only part of the real picture, not counting those who have lost their jobs but are not registered as unemployed.
Thus, a low level of registered unemployment does not mean that there are no problems in the labor market. Rather, it suggests that these problems take a different form — from informal employment to labor migration and mistrust of state institutions. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the situation comprehensively, taking into account not only official indicators, but also the real challenges faced by Ukrainians in search of work.
How to reduce structural unemployment?
Reducing structural unemployment in Ukraine requires a comprehensive approach, because the problem is not just a lack of jobs, but the fact that demand and supply on the labor market do not match. Many people are out of work not because there is no work at all, but because their skills and experience do not match today’s economic realities. That is why education reform, retraining, regional employment programs and support for entrepreneurship should be the key directions.
First of all, it is necessary to change the approach to education. The Ukrainian system of personnel training often does not keep up with market requirements: graduates obtain diplomas, but do not have the practical skills expected by employers. The situation can be improved thanks to the modernization of educational programs, closer cooperation between educational institutions and business, and the active implementation of dual education, which involves combining theoretical learning with real work experience while studying. This will allow young people not only to receive a diploma, but also to be ready for the real challenges of professional activity.
Special attention should be paid to the retraining of the adult population. In the conditions of war and economic crisis, many enterprises closed or changed the direction of activity, leaving their workers without work. People who have worked in certain fields for decades often find themselves faced with the need to learn new professions. Public and private retraining programs can be a lifesaver for them, but it is important that they meet the real needs of the market. For example, training in IT specialties makes sense only under the condition of further practice and support of mentors, and not simply by issuing certificates of course completion.
In addition, supporting small and medium-sized businesses can play an important role. It is this sector that creates the largest number of jobs and can quickly adapt to changes. Grant programs from both the state and international partners are able to help entrepreneurs develop their own business, creating new opportunities for employment. At the same time, it is important that such support is not limited to funding, but includes training and consulting programs that will help businesses become more sustainable and competitive.
Reducing structural unemployment is not a matter of one day or a single reform. This is a complex process that requires coordinated actions in the field of education, economic policy and business support. Only under such conditions can real changes be achieved, when Ukrainians do not just find work, but have the opportunity to develop in a professional field that meets modern challenges.
Unemployment map: Kharkiv Oblast and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast are in the lead
Another important aspect is regional development. In Ukraine, there are significant disparities in employment levels between different regions. In large cities, the situation is more stable, but in small towns and rural areas, it is much more difficult to find a job. If the state creates conditions for business development in such regions – for example, through tax incentives or targeted investment programs – it will not only reduce unemployment, but also prevent the outflow of labor to other countries.
Let’s look at the unemployment map. Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk and Sumy regions are in the top three.
Infographic: IA “FACT”
What are the reasons for the record level of unemployment in the east of the country?
Both Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk regions suffered a powerful economic blow as a result of the full-scale war. In the Kharkiv region, the military operations had a direct, destructive nature: destroyed critical infrastructure, housing, industrial facilities, and logistics hubs. This completely paralyzed a number of industries, in particular in the industrial districts of Kharkiv, Chuguyev, Izyum and Kupyansk. Many businesses that historically employed tens of thousands of people have gone out of business or lost markets. In the Dnipropetrovsk region, the situation is less dramatic in a physical sense, but the fighting in the southeast (especially in the area of Nikopol and Marganets) and the constant threat of attacks have also forced businesses to conserve or relocate capacities.
In addition, both regions have become transit and host hubs for internally displaced persons. Thousands of refugees from Donetsk region, Luhansk region, and Zaporozhye settled in Kharkiv and Dnipro, creating excessive pressure on the labor market. This has led to competition even for low-paying or temporary jobs.
What else? We can also talk about structural changes in the economy and the retraining crisis.
Regions with developed industry — Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk — especially painfully felt the transformation of the economic model. After 2014, and especially after 2022, there is a collapse of heavy industry, coal mining, and engineering, which traditionally employed a large number of people.
In the new economic structure, the demand for specialists in digital technologies, logistics, service, and energy saving is growing — but the population does not have time to adapt. There is a lack of systematic retraining, effective state programs and real support for self-employment. As a result, thousands of people with the profession “turner”, “machinist”, “electric welder”, “mine worker” remain outside the boundaries of the new market.
In both regions, there is a simultaneous process of outflow of the working population (especially young people and qualified specialists) and influx of IDPs with temporary status and limited employment opportunities. Part of the working-age population left abroad — both in search of work and for security reasons.
This has caused an imbalance in the market: some professions remain undemanded, while others are oversaturated. In rural areas, the situation is even more dramatic: even basic vacancies may not be filled for months due to the lack of people willing to work for minimum wages.
Unemployment in Kharkiv Oblast and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast is not only an economic, but also a humanitarian problem. It is a consequence of the war, systemic deformations in the economy, demographic shift and the unwillingness of the state to offer an effective response to the challenges of the time. Without large-scale investment in industrial recovery, digital education, small business support and adaptation programs for IDPs, the situation will remain critical.
