India, known for its young demographic, is booming is approaching to an era when the proportion of elderly people will increase significantly. According to the United Nations, the world’s population is aging at a rapid pace, and India is no exception. The population of the second largest country in the world is gradually aging, while the birth rate is declining. By 2050, the number of people over 65 is projected to rise from 108 million to 254 million, accounting for 15% of the total population, meaning that more and more seniors will depend on fewer able-bodied citizens.
Population Aging in India: Social Challenges, Economic Threats and the Struggle for a Dignified Old Age
The aging of the population brings not only economic but also social challenges. Poverty among the elderly is increasing, and cases their abandonment is becoming commonplace. The cruel reality characteristic of many old Indians is reflected in the story of 65-year-old Rajhu Pujale, who was left blind by his relatives. Some old people end up in shelters, others just on the street. Physical exhaustion and abuse by relatives is a reality faced by thousands of elderly Indians.
Regional differences exacerbate the problem even more. Richer southern states, particularly Kerala and Tamil Nadu, are already under pressure from aging populations, while northern regions with high birth rates continue to supply labor. This creates an uneven load on social and economic systems.
Despite the demographic window of opportunity, when the working-age population still predominates, experts warn that without investment in education, medicine and jobs, India risks losing its chance for economic growth. Gender inequality complicates the situation: elderly women are often left without means of livelihood, and the low participation of women in the labor force undermines the country’s economic potential.
To meet the challenges, India has to find its own way. Encouraging older people to remain economically active, expanding social security and adapting global experience to local realities may be the solution.
Consequences of population aging for the economy
Despite advances in medicine, India faces a shortage of specialized services for the elderly. Yes, oncologist Ranjana Srivastava describes personal experience when her family in India faced the lack of adequate palliative care for a seriously ill relative. She emphasizes that access to essential medications, particularly morphine, is limited due to regulatory barriers and fear of addiction, which leads to patient suffering.
Remains tangible difference in access to health services between urban and rural India. Rural areas often lack the necessary infrastructure and skilled personnel. The 10 Bed ICU project, launched during the Covid pandemic, has created more than 200 intensive care units in rural hospitals, using telemedicine technology to connect with specialists from cities. This made it possible to significantly improve the quality of medical care in remote areas.
With India’s growing elderly population, there is an urgent need to develop geriatric medicine and ensure equitable access to quality healthcare across the country. Without proper reforms, the health care system may not be able to cope with future challenges, which will endanger the well-being of millions of citizens.
Urbanization as a threat to «joint families» and the demographic paradox of India: the aging of the South and the youth of the North
India is known for its multigenerational families, where several generations live under one roof. But at present, noticeable social changes are taking place in the country. The traditional «joint family» model is receding into the past under the influence of urbanization and the migration of young people to cities and abroad in search of better opportunities. This leads to a decrease in the number of multigenerational households and creates new challenges in the field of care for the elderly.
According to the data census population, the share of «joint families» in India decreased from 19.1% in 2001 to 16.1% in 2011. This trend is especially noticeable among the poor. Seeking better education and work in urban centers, young people leave their homes, leaving their parents and grandparents without traditional support.
Due to the lack of social support and the breakdown of traditional family structures, many elderly people are left without proper care. This means that need improve social security, provide financial assistance and create programs to support the elderly.
In the southern Indian states of Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Kerala and Karnataka, the birth rate is significantly decreased through higher levels of education, better access to health care, and urbanization. In 2021, the national average was 1.9 children per woman, which is below the level of simple reproduction (2.1). In the southern states, this indicator is even lower: in Tamil Nadu — 1.4, in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana — 1.5, in Kerala — 1.5, in Karnataka — 1.6. This leads to an aging population and a possible reduction in the labor force. Local authorities are even urging families to have more children to prevent demographic decline.
In the northern Indian states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, the birth rate remains high – 3 and 2.7 children per woman, respectively. This is due to the lower level of economic development, limited access to education and medical services, as well as the preservation of traditional social norms. High birth rates ensure a young and growing population, but also put pressure on resources and infrastructure.
Youth from the northern states of India often move to the southern and western regions in search of a better fortune. This helps to satisfy the labor shortage in aging states and promotes economic growth. However, such migration creates pressure on the infrastructure in the new places of residence and the need for the integration of migrants. In addition, the outflow of the working population from the northern states may slow down their own economic development.
The role of AI and automation in India: Salvation from the manpower famine or the threat of mass unemployment
In certain sectors of the economy, India faces a shortage of skilled workers. In response to these trends, the country is actively implementing automation and robotics in an effort to increase productivity and compensate for labor shortages.
It is more and more common in Indian productions use automated systems and robots to improve efficiency and product quality. It reduces dependence on people. But automation could lead to increased unemployment, so it’s important to develop policies now to help people find work.
In the agricultural sector, drones are actively used for monitoring crops, applying fertilizers and other tasks. This helps to increase productivity and optimize the use of resources. However, automation in agriculture may lead to job losses for unskilled workers.
In the service sector, in particular, in call centers, AI-based solutions for processing customer requests are being actively implemented. This allows companies to reduce costs and increase the speed of service. However, artificial intelligence significantly affects on India’s technology outsourcing sector, putting many high-paying jobs at risk.
To reduce the negative effects of automation, India needs to invest in the education and reskilling of workers. Developing digital skills and adapting to new technologies will help people remain competitive in the job market. Automation of routine tasks may lead to the disappearance of some professions, so it is important to prepare workers for new roles in the digital economy.
India at the Crossroads: How Global Experiences Can Help Overcome Demographic Challenges
Population aging is a global problem, and countries are looking for ways to solve it. India can probably use international experience to develop its own solutions. Many countries are raising the retirement age to reduce the burden on pension systems and retain a skilled workforce. For example, in Germany the retirement age is raised to 67, in Japan companies encourage employees to work until 70. India, with its diverse economy, may have to adapt this approach to its own circumstances.
To fill the labor shortage, European countries attract migrants. Germany has programs to attract qualified personnel from abroad. In India, internal migration is already helping to provide labor in various regions, but there is a need to improve conditions for migrants and ensure their social protection.
Many countries are implementing policies to improve working conditions and attract more women into the workforce. For example, Sweden has good support for families with children and gender equality, which helps women to work. In India, increasing the number of women in the workforce can help cope with the challenges of an aging population.
…To make effective use of international experience, India must take into account its own cultural, economic and social characteristics. It faces a choice: adapt to demographic changes or face their consequences without proper preparation. A comprehensive approach combining pension reforms, balanced migration policy and improvement of working conditions can become the key to sustainable development. It is important to act in a timely manner, because the challenges of population aging are already apparent.
Tetyana Viktorova
