History has repeatedly demonstrated that the end of major wars often opens the floodgates for criminality that covers society both internally and internationally. The return of thousands of demobilized soldiers, economic instability, the psychological effects of hostilities, the spread of weapons and the loss of social landmarks – all these factors can contribute to the increase in the level of crime in Ukraine and beyond after the end of the war. This topic, which until recently seemed taboo, is already openly discussed at the international level. The President of Poland Andrzej Duda directly stated that after the return of the Ukrainian military from the front, international organized crime may increase rapidly. Despite the objections of representatives of the Ukrainian government, it is worth thinking about how to avoid possible negative consequences and to create mechanisms for the adaptation of veterans to a peaceful life in advance.
Duda’s statement and the reaction of representatives of Ukrainian ministries
As the Financial Times reports, Polish President Andrzej Duda warned that the end of Russia’s war against Ukraine could lead to a surge in international organized crime. He expressed concern that after the cessation of hostilities, crime could spread across the border from Ukraine to Poland, as well as affect Western Europe and the United States. According to him, Kyiv will need “massive support” to guarantee security.
At the same time, Andrzej Duda compared the situation with Russia in the early 1990s, when after the ten-year Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, gangsterism and armed violence among veterans increased rapidly.
“Remember what happened when the Soviet Union collapsed, and how much organized crime increased in Western Europe, as well as in the United States.” said Duda.
Duda also emphasized that in the event of a peace agreement between Kyiv and Moscow, Ukraine should receive support for rebuilding the economy and ensuring “order and security within the country.” At the same time, he noted that many soldiers will suffer from post-traumatic stress disorder and will return to their “villages and cities, where they will find destroyed houses, factories, factories, no jobs and no prospects.”
“Imagine the situation when thousands of people return home from the front. Those who fought against Russia, many of them will have serious psychological problems.” – noted the President of Poland.
The Ministry of Veterans Affairs of Ukraine commented on Andrzej Duda’s statement, noting:
“Ukrainian veterans are defenders who defend their land from an invader, not a threat. We believe that the focus of attention should be on Russian troops and their allies, who are a real threat, because they continue to prepare new acts of aggression against the free world.”
The Ministry of Veterans also emphasized that comparisons with the situation in Russia in the 1990s or the return of Soviet troops from Afghanistan are incorrect. Ukrainian defenders defend their country from an invader, and do not pose a threat to peaceful citizens.
“Ukrainian soldiers and veterans are not a threat, but a guarantor of the stability and security of Ukraine, Poland and the whole of Europe. They are those who risk their lives for peace and freedom and deserve the highest respect and support.” – emphasized in the department.
The ministry recognized that the integration of veterans into peaceful life is an important challenge, but the state is already working on creating an effective support system that will help them adapt and realize themselves after returning from the front.
“Veterans are returning to an active life, developing business, volunteering and community initiatives. Veteran sports and rehabilitation programs help them adjust after service. Veterans become leaders in their communities, strengthening society and the economy. We are convinced that Ukrainian veterans are strong, motivated people who defended their country and the entire democratic world. They are not a threat, but a driving force that strengthens Ukraine, Europe and global security. We believe that the international community understands this and will support Ukraine in creating decent conditions for our Defenders after the victory,” – the Ministry of Veterans said.
At the same time, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine also reacted to Duda’s statement and published on its website the comment of the spokesman Heorhiy Tykhi.
“We cannot agree with the fact that Ukrainian soldiers, who today risk their lives defending Europe from Russian invasion, are considered a potential threat to European security,” – stated in the application.
At the same time, Tykhi reminded that after 2014, when hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians had already passed through the front, no significant increase in crime or threats to Poland or Europe was recorded. He emphasized that since the beginning of the Russian invasion, Ukraine has been paying primary attention to the adaptation, socialization and integration of veterans, counting on the support of its partners.
“Ukrainian soldiers and veterans are not a threat, but a guarantee of security for Ukraine, Poland and the whole of Europe. They are the guarantee of a free and stable European future. We are convinced that the brave Ukrainian men and women who defended their country and the whole world against the Russian invaders deserve the highest respect.” – emphasized the spokesman of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
There are possible threats of an increase in the level of crime
Undoubtedly, all Ukrainian soldiers who today give their lives defending the country from the Russian Federation cannot be considered as a potential threat to European or internal security. However, historical experience shows that after the end of military conflicts, problems arise in societies related to the increase in the level of crime and social instability.
IA “FACT” has repeatedly written about the likelihood of an increase in the level of crime in Ukraine and beyond, referring to historical lessons and referring to the opinions of veterans of the Ministry of Internal Affairs. Before the invasion of the Russian Federation, the criminal world of Ukraine had clearly defined routes and business models that allowed criminal groups to work effectively on international markets. At the same time, Ukraine took the 34th place in the world and the third in Europe in terms of the level of crime, which testified to the developed infrastructure of the underground economy.
The war in Ukraine turned upside down not only the everyday life of millions of Ukrainians, but also the underground world of criminal activity. The hostilities have complicated transport routes that used to pass through the occupied territories and forced criminals to look for new routes and partners. On the one hand, the chaos of war created new opportunities for criminals, but on the other, it increased risks, leading to internal conflicts and struggles for control of resources. At the same time, one of the biggest opportunities for criminal structures has been a change in the priorities of law enforcement agencies, which are now focused on ensuring national security, fighting against saboteurs, and other war-related tasks. This weakened the fight against the underground economy, which in turn led to an increase in crime, in particular, theft, robbery and illegal export of goods.
In addition, before the full-scale invasion of Russia, about 9 million firearms were registered in Ukraine. According to experts, the same number of weapons were on the illegal market. Now it is difficult to imagine how many weapons will be on hand after the war. This will definitely increase the trade in illegal weapons in our country and abroad. Also, one of the most serious threats associated with this phenomenon may also be an increase in the level of murders and other violent crimes in the country. Weapons in the hands of people, many of whom have psychological trauma, can push them to extreme acts. At the same time, the lack of adequate psychological support can lead to the fact that veterans who have survived hostilities and civilians become antagonistic camps in peaceful life.
An example of this can be the experience of the Second World War, as well as the Yugoslav Wars, which took place on the territory of the former republics of Yugoslavia in the period between 1991 and 2001.
Decades have passed since their end, but the Balkans are still a volatile region. Ethnic conflicts and nationalist sentiments have not disappeared, and many veterans have not been able to integrate into a peaceful society and have become part of criminal gangs, which has led to an increase in the number of crimes.
At the same time, the economic instability caused by the war can lead to mass unemployment and poverty, which will also cause an increase in the level of robberies, thefts and robberies. Many people who will be out of work may be forced to turn to crime to provide for themselves and their families. This can turn Ukraine into a dangerous zone, where crime will become a regular part of everyday life. It should be remembered that in the 1990s, after the collapse of the USSR, it was economic difficulties that became a catalyst for the growth of criminal groups in the countries of the former Union. Ukraine risks repeating this path if decisive measures are not taken to maintain economic stability and create jobs.
Made public “Global Index of Organized Crime” determined that Europe is the second safest continent in terms of the threat of organized crime, but some European countries are particularly distinguished by the presence and brutality of powerful OZU (armed criminal groups, – order.). Research in the “Global Index of Organized Crime” indicates that Ukraine ranks third in the world “mafia rating”:
- Turkey
- Russia
- Ukraine
- Italy
- Serbia
- Montenegro
- Spain
- Belarus
- Bosnia and Herzegovina
- France.
As we wrote earlier, organized crime has long been integrated into global criminality. Currently, there are more than 5,000 transnational criminal groups, at least 80% of which are permanent, they have connections with law enforcement and other authorities. We should also not forget about the insufficient level of professionalism of Ukrainian police officers, who are unable to effectively overcome crime. Read about the reasons for this in our previous publications.
Commentary by Ihor Repeshko
IA “FACT” turned to the police general of the 3rd rank, who headed the regional departments of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, honored lawyer of Ukraine, candidate of economic sciences, lawyer Ihor Volodymyrovych Repeshko, who commented on the possible threats of post-war crime and named ways to prevent it.
Igor Volodymyrovych, do you agree with the position expressed by Andrzej Duda and representatives of the Ukrainian government? Is there a real threat of a criminal explosion after the war in Ukraine and beyond?
It is difficult to disagree with the President of Poland. Moreover, to remain silent on this topic is, from my point of view, senseless, and perhaps even criminal. They say that if you want to find the right solution to a problem, look for it in history. Everything was once somewhere. Especially war! And when peacetime came, every country faced the challenges of a spike in crime. Many of them were the same for all states. In particular, it concerned the destroyed economy, the crisis in the energy and financial system, and culture. I am not talking about the psychological state of the civilian population and military personnel who have returned from hostilities.
As the examples of history show, during the years of war, people adapt to it – each in their own way. The participants of hostilities acquire new military knowledge and habits. Some people even enjoy war – this is a scientific fact. After it ends, they are not very satisfied with the peace: they feel discomfort. Thus, participation in war forever makes a person’s life tragic. Conan Doyle’s hero said in this regard: “I fear that the bad habits I have acquired may take over.” A person begins to act according to a conditioned reflex, like Pavlov’s dog. As a result, it can take actions that fall under the jurisdiction of administrative or criminal law. And since the law is formal, reckless, instinctive actions can result in serious punishment.
This happened in almost all post-war countries. The relations of the demobilized with the law enforcement agencies were particularly difficult – the front-line soldiers perceived the policemen as people who were hiding from the war in the rear. I am not talking about the so-called “evaders”. And what’s more, it’s about power. Someone lost their relatives, home, property, job, and with them, hope for the future. Many believe that this happened as a result of the actions of the authorities. Therefore, integration into peaceful life was extremely problematic for many, and unattainable for some.
In addition, a brotherhood is formed between soldiers who risk their lives every day. People feel that together they go through all the trials due to important phenomena. In a peaceful life, they may feel lost: an important stage has ended, comrades are far away. Again, historical experience shows that in peacetime the military fraternity often turns into a criminal fraternity. And it is here that the skills acquired during the war can find a new application. Especially considering their high tolerance for violence.
Years spent in military hell! Imagine what happens to their psyche. Here these people come home and bring violence to a peaceful life. Now imagine if a political crisis erupts in the country! Given the large number of unregistered weapons (and officially registered ones too), armed conflict is almost unavoidable.
Are modern law enforcement officers ready for such challenges? What should the authorities and the leadership of the Ministry of Internal Affairs do today so that the country does not end up in a crisis situation after the end of the war?
What to do? Again, historical experience – it is already necessary to create a special base of people who have specific military skills, to develop methods of individual work with them, to open rehabilitation centers. Employment of war veterans, housing, compensation payments should be taken care of. That is, to do everything so that they adapt to normal conditions of peaceful life.
And at the same time, it should be taken into account that some of them may become criminals. A strong law enforcement system capable of resisting such challenges is important here. I believe that now she is absolutely not ready. Especially if you take into account the almost complete absence of special units in its composition. And the psychological state of law enforcement officers also needs attention. I hope that our police universities will work in this direction and provide appropriate recommendations. Although there are many problems here!
And also the latest technologies. Drones! They can be dangerous in peaceful life, so their use is in dire need of appropriate legislative regulation, perhaps even operator accounting.
Morale is also an important factor! The war has shown that, under certain conditions, law and social morality can encourage violence. Military propaganda, which is based on the antithesis “one’s own – another’s”, usually reinforces the idea that “the foreigner must be destroyed”, because he is bad, harmful and dangerous from the beginning. However, in peacetime, the main principle should change to: “Thou shalt not kill!” And this means that the mass media and the whole society in general must change. I think the church could play an important role in this, and it doesn’t matter what faith or denomination. We also need peace here.
In conclusion, without real professionals in all positions, the country will not withstand the post-war challenges. Everyone is already convinced that unprofessionalism is expensive, and at critical moments it can be fatal. Without professionals, no reforms, laws or strategies will save the situation!
Oksana Ishchenko
